Determine trend

[maildigger]

Let's imagine the following: you want to scalp ES (or another indexfuture) & your target is between 2 & 6 ticks. You use the 3' chart as your entry timeframe. How would you determine the direction of your scalps for the highest probability of possitive outcome (parabolic sar, crossing ma's, other timeframes, ...). I would like to know your opinion

[walterw]

Hi mail : you want to check this thread : http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...tion-1668.html it has some trend, momentum and timing considerations for a very simple not perfect trend trade.... also "flip" trades go with the trend determined by the keltner midband (bars above or below).... hope helps... cheers Walter.

[TheBramble]

maildigger, when it comes to trend on virtually any timeframe, you can't really go with anything other than the primary trend as your guide. But scalping is about as far away from main or primary trends as you can get so I'd intuit you'd stand a better chance by being totally counter-primary trend in order to catch the secondary pullbacks/rallies.

Actually, it makes even more sense to be counter whatever the 1 min trend is if you're scalping.

Trouble is, there aren't any scalpers around who have any money left anymore so it's tough to get decent advice....

[walterw]

	Quote:	TheBramble
	maildigger, when it comes to trend on virtually any timeframe, you can't really go with anything other than the primary trend as your guide. But scalping is about as far away from main or primary trends as you can get so I'd intuit you'd stand a better chance by being totally counter-primary trend in order to catch the secondary pullbacks/rallies. Actually, it makes even more sense to be counter whatever the 1 min trend is if you're scalping. Trouble is, there aren't any scalpers around who have any money left anymore so it's tough to get decent advice....

uuups, you mean good scalpers dont make money.. ? mmmm

[cooter]

	Quote:	walterw
	uuups, you mean good scalpers dont make money.. ? mmmm

Guess that depends on your definition of the term "Scalping"?

[TheBramble]

I mean that scalping is no longer a long term viable trading strategy in the current market structure. Nobody who scalps as a primary mode of market operation will remain profitable over the long term.

[BlowFish]

My personal favourites are

Using the bars themsleves - simply using higher highs and higher lows. Breaking previous swing high swing lows to signal a reverse or continuation of trend. Instantaneous no need for indicators once you look at enough charts you can see shifts in momentum and other nuances.

Basic trend lines - a break signifies a change in trend (might only be to sideways). I know a couple of scalpers that use nothing more than trend lines on constant tick charts. If you want to be adventurous draw a parallel to give you targets.

Floor Pivots - above the PP trend is up below down. For your time frame try using the previous hours or 30 minutes (H+L+C)/3 rather than the daily. Dosent come easier than that and is often spookily accurate in how price 'obeys' them. If price is 'too far' from the line trade the journey back to it.

Or you could use a 3rd order polynomial oscillator crossing 1.5 standard deviations from its apex. :-)

Cheers.

[walterw]

	Quote:	TheBramble
	I mean that scalping is no longer a long term viable trading strategy in the current market structure. Nobody who scalps as a primary mode of market operation will remain profitable over the long term.

I do not share that opinion... scalpers have the habilty to adapt to diferent seasons of the market... if they dont have that skill, they can not bear the name scalper....

Scalping is a profession inside the market, thanks to them (us) markets have liquidity, many scalpers make very small profits on a daily basis that result in steady monthly incomes...

There is no less technical demand to be a scalper, normally scalpers are more technically oriented than other aproaches... they depend almost 100% on technicals...

It takes cold blood an a lot of autorestrictions....

You can scalp on volatility, and you can scalp on slow markets...

Something else : scalping is not for everybody, its almost a life style... you have a diet, apropiate sleep, mind control, focus, autoestime... etc etc...

GOOD Scalpers will always make money... cheers Walter.

[cooter]

	Quote:	TheBramble
	I mean that scalping is no longer a long term viable trading strategy in the current market structure. Nobody who scalps as a primary mode of market operation will remain profitable over the long term.

So you really haven't defined scalping for us, have you?

[cfrn]

Scalping Defined -
wake up / pour coffee / fire up the screens / buy or sell short a 50% pullback / turn of screens / go live life