Week 50

[torero]

I hope tex doesn't mind me taking the lead in opening this thread. I've already took a long this morning, following the Tokyo opening with a gap down. It just came back to near last session's high. Looking like a pullback from most recent high, I took a long here. Target is 9840 or higher, depending on how price react to that area.

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	torero
	I hope tex doesn't mind me taking the lead in opening this thread.

No, not in the least! It's not my thread, anyone's more than welcome to kick it off!!

I didn't see the 'long' this morning torero. Looked like a slight downside bias to me leading into London?

Didn't take the short either, as we're not convinced this $ decline is done yet. I have interim support @ 1.97 on the hourly, & given the pace in which price has travelled past week or so, a little "range trading" wouldn't be out of the question ahead of this weeks NFP print?

Sure, the upside still carries the weight on this instrument - and I wouldn't expect too much heavy selling ahead of Friday, merely range containment and/or mild profit paring.

[Anna-Maria]

Little in the way of data today to drive prices, the only noteworthy item being Mike Moskow of the Chicago Fed, jawboning on CNBC @ 9.00am EST.

I guess much of the early week activity will revolve around technical jostling.

Long as 9650 remains protected, all should be well for the $ Bears. 9550 is now secondary support at these levels with decent demand lurking back there from swing stops.

[torero]

Stopped out. The gap down was a small clue but wasn't convinced enough since it filled it up quickly. But no problem at all, saw my signal and took it. Been fatten up like a Thanksgiving turkey so maybe market is telling me to digest a bit before another binge begins. I agree, I'm still lurking for longs until market says it's over. I'll just wait for it to find a comfortable spot and lounge and once it's ready, I'll get in.



I've been having trouble getting your pivot #s to match mine. What session times do you set?

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	torero
	I've been having trouble getting your pivot #s to match mine. What session times do you set?

I take the 35 & 50% levels from the NY close @ 5.00pm EST.

The only times we'll adjust those % guides are: if/when prices begin to extend their "normal" range parameters.

But for most of this year, normal (inside) range activity has contained prices sufficiently enough for us to look for rebounds away from those 35-50% barriers.

On another note, we've yet to experience any meaningful retracement activity on this current leg up. Worth keeping your Fib guides plotted on the swings to assist any aggressive reversal behaviour as & when prices get spooked at these lofty heights.

It won't take much for emotive reaction to accellerate once folks begin to get a little freaked with the buck stretched to it's limits. Often, all it takes is a small displeasure in the "expected" data to unravel prices. Once that occurs, human emotion takes over & all hell breaks loose.

I usually keep the 240m chart highlighted with the near term (price) s&r levels + appropriate Fibs plotted to help guide potential stall area's...that way, I can then drill down to smaller timeframes & look for relevant lower top/higher bottom activity for triggers.

[torero]

I went up the timeframe to 60min and saw this. Very interesting indeed. I may rely on this timeframe to keep it long for now. NY may have to decide which way to go.

[torero]

Saw this bull flag formation this morning. And finally it made a breakout and pullback. Going long here and see what happens.

[torero]

Wise as ever, tex. I'm going to move up a higher frame to stay focused determine the plays from there. I got stopped out from the 15min bull flag but evidently law of the higher frame is dictating the moves, not the patterns in the smaller frames like the previous times. Once again, you've shined with your wisdom

reaver,

Attached is the fib levels tex and I use

[Anna-Maria]

Hey guys!

Yeah, it's a bit choppy this week terero. We haven't initiated any fresh (intraday) positions thus far, preferring to wait till we see how this consolidation phase plays out on Cable & the Franc.

The 4hr triangle is still cutting out (Cable), which looks like it could well break farther North. But again, we'd prefer to wait for the apex to shake out. This could well play out into late week now with Friday's NFP the likely catalyst to continued momentum should it print to the $ negative.

Reaver:

I don't really plot Fibs on anything lower than a 240m frame. Obviously folks can refer to whichever timeframe they wish, but personally I've never found the smaller timeframe % levels to be particularly accurate or relevant.

I'm more interested in whether a Big Fib line confluences a hard (price based) s&r zone or a Round Number (00-50) than I am the actual Fib level. If I get one or more price based confluences, then that zone is of definite interest.

One of our colleagues is closely observing the 14EMA on the 240m Cable chart. If you plot it, you'll see what I mean. It's managed to hold it's close against that trend marker since it broke up thru 8850.

Any prolonged close below it, especially should the NFP's offer the buck a temp kicker, will be a decent buffer as to the potential strength of Cable in the short term

Mov Averages, in a trending phase, are certainly as good as any other price aid for offering a heads up. As long as they're observed via the longer timeframes & utilized correctly.

Anyhow, hope the comments help!

[torero]

Good advice, tex, on the Fib level only valid in 240 or higher. I'll keep that in mind. Yes, been staying out after 2 false starts, so I'm staying flat now until 9650 nears.