Week 10

[pipMonster]

Was everyone as surprised as I was at the huge sell off to start the market off for the week?

I was able to get a little something out of cable within the last hour:

[steveshutts]

Hi Jack,

Yeah, massive sell off eh! Not too surprised though. Looks to be a bit of panic buying of Yen as some of the big players unwind their carry trades. GBP/JPY has come off nearly 1700 pips over the last week. Cable hardly performed at all last week with all the concentration on the Yen and Swissy, and all the shorting of sterling definitely kept a lid on expected upward movements on cable. We had shed loads of dollar negative data last week but still cable couldn't break 9680.
I suppose it was only a matter of time until it started to move with GBP/JPY. Definitely a time to be operating during the Asian session at the moment, as all the big moves within the Yen market usually start during that session.

[steveshutts]

Cable currently finding support at the weekly fib at 9215. Would like to see some retracement back up to retest the 9400 level.

[Buk]

"USD/JPY is firmer as traders continue to debate the recent need for unwinding of Yen carry trades.

analysts remind suggesting that the past several days of JPY carry unwinds is being used by aggressive and professional traders to re-set their carry trades.

Regardless of near-term liquidation pressures analysts remind that the fact is interest rate differentials between the JPY and other high-yielding currencies still make the carry attractive and the Japanese economy has a long way to go before the argument for a sustained rally in the JPY can be made.

Analysts agree that a modest correction after a six-handle sell-off is a reasonable assumption but caution that close-in stops may not be enough to spark a serious rally. Traders remind that two-way action will likely be the case through the end of the week until US data is released on Friday morning".

James?.....I guess The Lions threads don't accept reply/comments posts?! (closed thread)........anyway, some pretty good dialogue on there......


yeah, this correction from 2 yr Yen lows still has a way to go to begin unsettling the real carry beneficiaries for sure……it†™s still 200 odd pips shy of 4th Q yen highs/3yr trendline, & that 38.2 Fib marks out a developed s&r zone too…….I guess we could yet witness a run to that line if we don’t see the months highs (118.80) first……†¦Ã¢â‚¬Â¦.

That zone under 119, which houses the 100ma is likely to attract good 2 way activity on it’s next visit……†¦ & wouldn’t be surprised to witness some range trading once this excitement dies down, at least until the rate diff numbers get re-calc’d on the next round of Cent Bank rate meetings ……certainly plenty of opportunities of late for all trading styles!!

Buyers @ 115.50 sure got some value on any near term run back to that 118.80 line anyway! & are well placed to obtain a decent average in, should price re-threaten the weeks lows.......would be good to see the weekly bar close up around current levels to add a little zip to events.........

[Soultrader]

Hello Bukk,

Unfortunately that section of the forum is closed for replies and strictly for commentary. I will try to ask The Lion (Jason Jankosvky) if he is interested in posting regulary here in the Forex room as he specialized with currencies also. Thanks.

[Buk]

sure, no problem James.........

[Buk]

the hourly amplifies the potential headwind up beyond the weeks highs for Yen as it continues to tentatively build off the weekly S1 pivot 115 holding zone……..

a 38% level (117.65) from the recent lower top @ 121.60 is sandwiched by todays resistance pivots & that general area back to c117.10 will house each-way stops, further influencing Yens near term activity……â⠂¬Â¦Ã¢â‚¬Â¦

The Nikkei is certainly offering a lift to Yen Bulls this week, & no doubt speculators are keeping a close watch on stocks for some degree of risk guage before stepping up the size on currency bets……until today’s European rates statement & tomorrows jobs data out of the States is digested, I guess we can expect nervy each-way sparring……â⠂¬Â¦

All eyes on Trichet then today to see how hawkish those guy’s are going forward – that will offer a clue or two near term……… .

[Soultrader]

Hi Bukk,

Just had a chance to talk with The Lion. He would love to get comments and responses so I have enabled the daily commentary section for new threads and replies. (I literally spent a week showing him how to use the forum) Hopefully you guys can toss of ideas and opinions.

[Buk]

ok, that's cool........looks like he adopts a long(er) range take on events, which sure sits with my preferred angle........

appreciate you taking the time to re-jig the thread options........