week 1 - 2007

[torero]

Well, Happy New Year everyone and looks we're starting the year with a big bang (gap LOL). I went long right after the gap.



I have seen a few positive patterns to make me go bullish. Both triangles in daily and weekly are in play, both with target just above 2.000. This is a big big big resistance area so we'll see if George Soros want to short again here LOL! Different times and different scenarios. We'll see.

[Anna-Maria]

Hey Torero!

A Happy New Year to you (& everyone), hope 07 is a big pip returner!!

Straight out the blocks this month huh?

I'm not back into the swing as yet, markets still a little subdued on the liquidity side for my liking - but the techs sure played ball this morning by the looks.

Price running out of steam at the 618 extension. Those 2 ext levels looked like good zones to book a little profit huh?

You still riding it, or did you cover already.

[torero]

Hi Tex! Happy New Year and hope you had a great holiday with your loved ones as I did!

I'm still on the trade. Originally it was a meant for a 9743 area as target. But seeing the bigger picture on daily and weekly, I'm placing a breakeven stop and let the bigger pattern (triangles on daily and weekly) take this trade. Taking this action, I'm wondering if my stop is foolish and should move it to an appropriate area on the daily and/or weekly chart. What do you think?

I've seen traders turn a winning trade from an intraday to a swing (but I've seen newbies doing the opposite... taking the loser from intraday to swing). Think it's a good idea? If it doesn't work out, I'd break even, so no risk to me. One of my new resolution was to ride the winners longer.

[pipMonster]

Happy New Year to everyone!

Torero - very nice trade. I would take a portion of your profits off at 9743 if you haven't already and trail by a swing low or two on the 60-min chart. This is a good trade, you don't want to let it off the hook at break even.

Texxas,

I took the night(morning?) off and just observed as I thought the thin market would lead to some unpredictable movement. This move looked pretty predictable in hindsight.

I'm looking forward to a fantastic 2007. I learned an incredible amount last year from you, Buk, Bonza and Cowpip.

-pipMonster

[Anna-Maria]

Hey Jack!

I'm sure you'll attract a whole sack of pips this year!!


torero: Attempting to run the larger swing returns will occasionally involve the necessity of larger stop placement. Unfortunately, it's not always possible to run these intraday entries into bigger potential swing moves without some adjustment of initial risk as the picture develops.

It's merely a trade-off. You have to decide whether you're gonna take a little profit off the table on the initial leg (as Jack mentioned) & compound back as price breaks thru your staged s&r levels - or trail the stops once price moves away, & counter trade any moves back against your primary position by 'jobbing' via the smaller timeframes?

That will obviously be dictated by the size of your account & your overall aims & objectives.

It's tough watching an initial c1.5 cent profit position slowly erode as price shuffles back & forth thru the intraday levels...but that's just the way it goes.

Unless you're willing to trade the intraday oscillations against your main swing position and/or keep your stops well hidden from the fire, then you're in for some pretty frustrating sessions in front of the screens.

A good percentage of your intended (larger) swing moves will fail to kick on. The healthy profits are returned (in our experience) by compounding aggressively into the ones which develop & kick on quickly.

I run a dual strat as normal practice. If an intraday entry looks like morphing into a potential larger swing move, I'll babysit the trade for a day or so, then leave it be. All it'll require then is managing.

A case of then reverting to the intraday strat/account & playing the opportunities as they arise during normal market conditions. But then, that practice has been part & parcel of our methodology for a good lick of time.

Like anything, it requires practice & a solid psychological base!!

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	torero
	But seeing the bigger picture on daily and weekly, I'm placing a breakeven stop and let the bigger pattern (triangles on daily and weekly) take this trade. Taking this action, I'm wondering if my stop is foolish and should move it to an appropriate area on the daily and/or weekly chart. What do you think? If it doesn't work out, I'd break even, so no risk to me.

9750 is the fulcrum here for sure.

Bust that niggly resistance line & it looks good for another cent up on the ladder. If you stand on the side of the current fundamentals, then Sterling (& Euro) appear well placed to run the buck ragged during 1st Quarter?

$ Bears will certainly rip into it should this round of data come in shy. The Dec highs will set the stage for me should this 9750 hurdle crumble.

[torero]

I had suspected moving from intraday to swing might be a total change in targets/stops, etc. I had thought this would be a good exercise for myself how this would work out. True I had my stop placed under the top of the New Year gap. Might not fly in the 240min or daily chart. But I already missed the exit at 9743. So, might as well hold out this pullback and see how it goes. I'm watching the daily triangle confirming the breakout, so still bullish, only problem/concern is where will the pullback stop and turn upwards again. hmmmm.

[Anna-Maria]

The sub 240m charts are very noisy. Not surprising given the thin markets leading into Dec.

I guess reading the harder lines off the 240 & drilling down to maybe a 30-15min reference will offer a clearer view as price bounces around these important s&r lines.

It's always pretty gusty when we return from extended holidays/thin volume environments, as most of the big cats are still trickling in & taking a look around at the current scenario.

Get this week in the can & things will begin to balance out a bit more.

[pipMonster]

So true Texxas.

Cowpip and I just spent the last couple of hours nursing trades in this noise. I got in pre-London open and managed to escape with my skin. It's very noisy.

These rest of this week should be quite interesting.

What's your take on the possibility of the US raising rates in Q1?

-Jack

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	pipMonster
	What's your take on the possibility of the US raising rates in Q1? Jack

Remember guy's, don't neglect or forget to take a peek at the crosses if you're seeking alternative (longer) swing candidates??

The GBP & Euro pairs are continuing to display decent opportunities due to their strong fundamental bias.

Take a look at one or two of those instruments on the 240/60m frames, they're adhering well to the 'trend bar stacking' behaviour on their respective journey's.

Jack: I feel the UK & Eurozone regions are best placed to hike rates in the near term as opposed to our (U.S) internal situation.

If anything, the rates differential could well contract between Sterling/Euro & the buck, thus eroding further the Dollars hierarchy.

As ever, the Data will confirm that particular outlook!!