Normal expected move for x economic number

[walterw]

Hello, I want to ask some one more instructed fundamental trader, if there is a list of expected outcomes for a positive / negative number from an economical indicator.... example : for home sales if positive number, expect an up move, for negative number expect a down move and so on for each economical indicator.... I know probably this is a stupid thread but the question is Is there any normal expected move for an x +/- economic number ?.... thanks Walter.

[notouch]

Anything the suggests strong but sustainable economic growth is good for stocks. Anything that suggests inflation is bad.

Examples of good news:

CPI lower than expected
Retail sales higher than expected
New Home Sales higher than expected

Examples of bad news:

PPI higher than expected
Durable goods orders lower than expected
Existing home sales lower than expected

[cooter]

Knowing this information, you can cobble together a system to auto-trade off of this when the number comes out, right?

[notouch]

I used to do that in the currency markets. All you need is a news service with an Excel link (Bloomberg or Reuters) and some programming knowledge. Nowadays you're competing against people with ultra low latency direct links to the exchanges so you'll always be one step behind.

[walterw]

	Quote:	notouch
	Anything the suggests strong but sustainable economic growth is good for stocks. Anything that suggests inflation is bad. Examples of good news: CPI lower than expected Retail sales higher than expected New Home Sales higher than expected Examples of bad news: PPI higher than expected Durable goods orders lower than expected Existing home sales lower than expected

Nice Notouch, do you know of any site or literature where I can inform my self in detail about the interpretation of each economic indicator and their expected outcomes depending on +/- numbers... (maybe a pdf) It makes great sense that + or - numbers should have an expected outcome... thanks for the feedback... Walter.

[rock]

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

u might want to explore it

[cooter]

	Quote:	notouch
	Anything the suggests strong but sustainable economic growth is good for stocks. Anything that suggests inflation is bad. Examples of good news: CPI lower than expected Retail sales higher than expected New Home Sales higher than expected Examples of bad news: PPI higher than expected Durable goods orders lower than expected Existing home sales lower than expected

This is a nice list to have. Ditto to Walter's comment.

Is there somewhere that you can point us to expand this list?

thxs

[Nick1984]

For index traders, commodity prices have a huge bearing on the index (well here in Aus anyway). Keeping a track of rises and falls in metals such as:
Gold, Silver, Nickel, and Copper are really imporant imho.

Economic indicators apart from CPI are:
AWOTE (Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings) indication of real wages, Interest rates,
Current Account deficit/surplus (most western countries run deficits cause we're all big spenders so basically how much larger is the deficit getting!)
Retail Spending (These numbers I dont trust cause the boom times of Christmas and Mothers Day which all coincide with the release of economic data is misleading i reckon).
Employment Rates (We love low employment!)
Building Approvals etc..