Market Outlook

[AbeSmith]

Hello. Today we had the rate cut, which was in line with market expectations. Price spiked up, but came down and closed in the red. Looks to me like a very bearish sign. Many of the guests on CNBC, and Bloomberg (which I've been watching more recently) had predicted in recent days that the market is looking bearish for the long term and it will go lower than the 1/22 lows, rate cut or not. Typically, from what I have seen on rate cut days (though I've only studied the markets for some months only) price goes one way or another. Seeing price action today tells me that the market is not feeling confident.

I would like to know what you all think. What is your outlook? Would you go short here on the longer time frame, or wait for the 1/22 low to break before going short?

In my opinion, after seeing price action today, combined with hearing many analysts predict that market is going lower, I might go short tomorrow on a daily time frame trade.

[torero]

I can only assume the cut was already priced in, hence the lack on enthusiasm. In any case, markets eventually have to test the recent low to find out if we're going into a recession or not. February should be a hot month for trading.

[james_gsx]

All those talking heads were saying the market looked bullish 3 months ago. Now they are saying it looks bearish.

You have to remember how many negative things were priced in during our 5-6% decline. We most likely had a minor recession priced in, because let's admit a 600 ym decline is pretty impressive. That doesn't just happen BAC or C missed earnings.

That doesn't mean we won't test those lows again, I wouldn't be surprised if we do. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we blow through 13,000 and charge straight for 14,000 again.

Be careful when all those guys pretend like they know what they are talking about. Because usually they don't have a clue. The best thing to do is sit back and look at all of your data, and your charts, then make your own decision. You'll probably be right most of the time if you do the right homework.

[AbeSmith]

	Quote:	torero
	I can only assume the cut was already priced in, hence the lack on enthusiasm. In any case, markets eventually have to test the recent low to find out if we're going into a recession or not. February should be a hot month for trading.

So you are saying markets will test the recent lows soon. If that is the case then perhaps it is best to go short now and take some off the table when it reaches the 1/22 lows.

[AbeSmith]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	All those talking heads were saying the market looked bullish 3 months ago. Now they are saying it looks bearish. You have to remember how many negative things were priced in during our 5-6% decline. We most likely had a minor recession priced in, because let's admit a 600 ym decline is pretty impressive. That doesn't just happen BAC or C missed earnings. That doesn't mean we won't test those lows again, I wouldn't be surprised if we do. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we blow through 13,000 and charge straight for 14,000 again. Be careful when all those guys pretend like they know what they are talking about. Because usually they don't have a clue. The best thing to do is sit back and look at all of your data, and your charts, then make your own decision. You'll probably be right most of the time if you do the right homework.

James, thanks for your comments. I must say I would be surprised if markets charged towards 14000 anytime soon.

[james_gsx]

Well the point I was trying to get across to you was don't listen to the guys on TV. Do your own research and come up with your own conclusions. If you had been listening to most of the guys on TV for the last 7 months you wouldn't have any money left.

[mcichocki_]

	Quote:	james_gsx
	Well the point I was trying to get across to you was don't listen to the guys on TV. Do your own research and come up with your own conclusions. If you had been listening to most of the guys on TV for the last 7 months you wouldn't have any money left.

This is a valid statement. News is used to sucker people into or out of shares plain and simple IMO. Even if we agree the news is valid, by the time it hits presses and airwaves you've lost the edge. News at fever pitch means get ready for a fade opportunity as I see it.

JMHO

[Soultrader]

Just woke up and.. WHAT HAPPENED?

I went to bed to this:



And woke up to this. Was this just a counter reaction or was any negative news releases?

[404]

From what I understand, I heard that a bond company lost its AAA rating. That was a big deal, and what caused some weakness...

someone correct me if i am wrong.

[james_gsx]

Yeah then the market sold off fairly hard after hours and is now basically back to where it closed.

I heard about the bond company, but what's the real story behind it? Because if it's like a typical stock downgrade then I want to be buying right now. If not, then obviously I wouldn't want to react.