Fibonacci Confluence on Time

[willd]

I have seen several posts on possible weakness at these levels. Here is one more thought to consider. I ran a quick Fibonaaci time extension on the SPY. Today May 16, 2007 is showing up as a key time zone for a measurement of high to high, low to low and low to high swing points. June 6 and 7 are also key time dates.

Price has continued to rise into this time frame, therefore, the proability of a reversal occurring within the next 2 days is good.

Nov 28, Dec 14, Feb 22 and Mar 14 are the dates I used for the time extensions.

[email]

Hi Willd,

What method are you using to project these time extentions.

Many Regards,
email

[torero]

There is no book that I'm aware or any expert that can explore this topic in details. Wonder if it works.

[BlowFish]

I think Fischer goes into time projections but not in any great detail. Have to say his book never really 'clicked' for me but it is fairly comprehensive from the point of view of topics covered.

I wrote some tradestation code a while ago to find potential turnng points. Basically I'd load up a a whole bunch of intraday bars and record all the swing hi swing low points. I'd then project all the major fibs in time and have confluences marked as a histogram based on the 'stregth' of confluence from memory I didnt bother unless there where 3 or more.

While it was a fun project it didn't look good enough to trade. Just seemed to indicate too many turns that didn't materialise, but to be honest I didnt go much further trying to improve it.

Cheers,
Nick

[cooter]

If you're into fib confluences, Carolyn Boroden seems to be an proficient practitioner of this area of technical analysis.

Liquid Web Project Streamer - cb1618 - may212007 is a link to one of here training videos recaps....

[BlowFish]

Another guy I like for confluence of levels (rather than time) Is Jim Kane. I got all his stuff and while I don't trade fib it is quality material (caveat - imo).

[waveslider]

In agreement with blowfish, I think that if the fib timing works, it is an art to do. I have done some testing also and the problem is that there are so many inverses in the market.
So selecting the proper points is the key, and they are rarely the peaks/troughs.
Timing always will have this issue.
It's never dependable as a primary entry or exit mechanism, so probably not worth bothing too much with.
My opinion is its better to spend time on money management techniques - that's what really affects your account!

[rolange]

	Quote:	waveslider
	In agreement with blowfish, I think that if the fib timing works, it is an art to do. I have done some testing also and the problem is that there are so many inverses in the market. So selecting the proper points is the key, and they are rarely the peaks/troughs. Timing always will have this issue. It's never dependable as a primary entry or exit mechanism, so probably not worth bothing too much with. My opinion is its better to spend time on money management techniques - that's what really affects your account!

There is a certain alchemy involved otherwise everyone would be doing it. I found this recently and would suggest there is a great method amongst the seeming madness of fib.

www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips30.htm
If it works for Larry.....

[torero]

Interesting read, thanks, rolange!

[BlowFish]

So many tools focus on price it is always of great interest to come across something that is orientated towards time.

I know a couple of Gann gurus who maintain finding inflection points in time is much easier than finding inflection points in price.