Do You Think Market Is Making A Ceiling?

[malvado xetra]

seeing the charts once more. do you think markets are making a ceiling?

SP is reaching its tops again but couldnt bit the red line I drew and the figure looks like a diamond.

DJ TRANSPORT could do a doble top in the next days

DAX opened this morning with a big gap that couldnt fill up

CRUDE looks like forming a doble bottom to go up again

VOLATILITY is growing again as it did last february

we are approaching MAY that is a traditional bearish month

waiting for some other points of view

best regards to the forum

[studyolic]

I don't follow those markets, but on my charts for the FTSE100 and the DJ Euro Stoxx50, I think mid-May, around the 17th, could be a top.

Maybe.

[torero]

How do you figure that it'll May 17th? Fibo time cycles?

[studyolic]

Not Fibonacci, just a number of other time cycles all coming out around that time.

[brownsfan019]

Here we go again... trying to play guess the top...

Here's my 2 cents - watch others attempt to catch the falling knives and join in once there's some sort of confirmation.

What is interesting is reading the tops/shorts threads appearing here and elitetrader, meanwhile the market continues higher... hmmm....

Here's a simple 1 month DJI chart from Google Finance:


If you are looking to enter the big move or are swing trading, I would have a real hard time taking a short now or soon.

What is intriguing through all of this though is that all these new shorts have either been taken out or may be still holding a losing position. How many times have we seen one day where it just seems like there is a domino effect of heavy volume taking place... Should the market continue higher, I would not be surprised to see a day or two where the shorts say enough pain.

Daytrading is a different topic altogether in my opinion. In daytrading, I am just looking for movements and my setups. I could care less what the dominant overall trend is (up now) or the possible upcoming trend (sooner or later it might head down).

Side note - in a more investment portfolio, it's hard to debate the buy and hold strategy... Just buy some index ETF's and let them ride. Of course there's many factors here if this makes sense for you, but in general terms, the buy and holders are doing very well right now and they ALWAYS do fine in the long run. Always. NEVER has the market gone down AND stayed down. We are ALWAYS setting new highs and coincidentally bringing more top callers out as well. It's just a matter of staying the course when we do get the 'pullback' or sideways movements. On days like a 500 pt down move on the DOW, you have to be out there buying if you are a long-term holder.

[brownsfan019]

Here's a follow up chart to my post there:



The first red box was the big drop day on the dow (Feb 27th). As you can see, even after a big bear day, the Dow did not really plummet and head into a bear market as many predicted. It came down a little more and after we all realized the market was not going to the dumps, back up it came.

I have to wonder what the fascination is with trying to pick the top. Look how many possible tops appear on that chart. I realize no one here would of tried to call those tops either, but someone, some where did.

If anything, I would be a permabull if I had to choose. And outside of my trading accounts, I do. If you have time, the market has ALWAYS gone up. It may not be immediate, but if you can buy when you see great opportunities at -500 days, you are rewarded sooner or later. At the close of business on Feb 27th, the DJI was at 12,216. We are now wondering when 13,000 will be passed. That's approx 800 pts in 2 months or so...

I realize this is not a long-term investor forum, but the point being that over time the market has always headed higher. Sometimes it takes years and sometimes it can gain 800 pts in 2 months... I do not use this information in my day-to-day trading as I am just trying to capture small moves and exit. But, for your retirement funds, children's funds, etc. going long the DIA on Feb 27th looks like a pretty smart investment!

[notouch]

A daily candlestick chart is even more striking in showing big time buying coming in on the lows to drive it higher. There's no point fighting a megatrend like this. Nothing yet suggests the bull market is over.

[malvado xetra]

in my opinion,

after seeing mini sp breaking the 1485, the next days we could go down to touch the 1470 approx or, even the 1458 level more or less. after that move we ll go back up again to try to beat the highs of the year and then, I think, a big correction will take place. probably not to change the market into a bear market but, surely is going to be quite strong.

based on elliott, we have drown waves 1, 2 and 3. the 3rd wave has been an extended one as usuall and made by 5 sub-waves. possibly this 3rd one has gone to its end with the correction that today is taking place in europe (lets see this afternoon in the SP). after finishing this correction (wave 4) market will recover making wave 5 and then this could be a ceiling for the next months

[studyolic]

Brownsfan,

sorry if I gave the wrong impression; I'm not calling a final top in May, I'm just saying that I think there are some signs of the FTSE100 and EU Stoxx50 making A top around the 17th. In my opinion, these markets could then trade down for a few days, maybe even to the end of May, before heading up again.

I didn't want to start World War III about tops/bottoms and technical indicators, I was just throwing in my 2 cents worth in response to the original post.