I started my speculative career in sports betting where one can get rich winning 60% of his wagers, but most win less than 53%--the amount to break even after vigorish assuming ALL your wagers are the same amount.
I don't know what you do for a living nor what your favorite hobby might be, but chances are there is something at which you are very, very good. Maybe you're an excellent chess player, or horseshoe pitcher, or furniture salesman, carpenter, upholsterer, cook...whatever. There is something at which you have become very skilled...Right?
Right.
...And chances are, if a stranger tells you he is also very good at your special thing, it will take you....oh....about a minute and a half to figure out whether he's lying ...Right?
Right.
How can you do that? You can do it by listening to the guy. If he's claiming to be a good chess player and says something like, "The knights are more valuable to me than the rooks," you'll know you've got yourself a ringer. If you're a good cook, and this guy says he bakes biscuits at 200 degrees, you know this guy doesn't know biscuits from baloney. Sooner or later, phonies always give themselves away.
And it's no different with trading. Professional traders can spot a non-expert very quickly. The most obvious giveaway is that phonies tend to make outrageous claims. If an ES futures trader or "educational service" tells you it wins 70+% of its trades (defined as a one point profit before a 1-1.25 stopout) offer to lay 11 to his 10 that it won't win 70+% of his next 20, or 50, or 500--or whatever--trades. In fact, call your banker and mortgage the ranch to back that bet! That's the closest you'll ever come to getting a 'lock' bet. (Better have an honest third party hold the money, though.)
12-22-2007, 10:26 PM
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