Traders Laboratory Forums

An Open Letter To Mark Zuckerberg

Tams — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 04:42:06 GMT

An Open Letter To Mark Zuckerberg

An Open Letter To Mark Zuckerberg About Why It Doesn�t Matter Where You List Your Stock

Dear Mark Zuckerberg,

Congratulations on your IPO filing. We understand that you are faced with a difficult decision soon on where to list your stock. You have probably heard from your bankers that the NASDAQ exchange is for tech savvy companies like Google and Apple and the NYSE is where the blue chip companies like GE and Caterpillar choose to list. You may think that the NASDAQ market is more of an electronic exchange where dealers place competing bids and offers to help facilitate institutional client trades. You may look at financial television and see scenes from the NYSE and think that the NYSE market is more of a floor based auction model where your stock would trade at a �post� on the exchange. You may be thinking that regardless of which exchange you pick, your stock will help investors create wealth for themselves by investing in your company for the long-term.

We hate to break the bad news to you but the fact is....

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02...st-your-stock/

Determining Which Time Frame is In Control

Tradewinds — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 23:46:11 GMT

It seems that the market is reacting to different time frames at different times. It seems like sometimes the price is following signals from a shorter time frame, and sometimes it's following signals from a longer time frame. I'm going to be testing something new about how to determine which time frame to take the signal from. I'm looking for Uptick/Downtick consolidation on a 3 minute chart, and then looking at how long that consolidation lasts. If the consolidation lasts 5 minutes, then I'm going to take signals from a 5 minute chart. If the consolidation lasts 15 minutes, then I'm going to take signals from a 15 minute chart. I'm defining consolidation as BOTH lower uptick highs AND higher downtick lows. So both the upticks and the downticks are getting less and less, There is not much action, things are slow. Depending upon how long this decrease in activity lasts, that will determine what time frame chart I decide to use.

I'd like to know what people think of this idea.

Orderflow Webinar

Predictor — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:01:28 GMT

Hello, first to the administrators if this post isn't appropriate then feel free to delete it or if it should go in another section. I PMed an moderator about this but haven't received a reply.

I wanted to announce to all concerned that I will be hosting a webinar on how I read the tape and orderflow this Saturday at 9 AM. I've read everything that I could find on order flow and I know there have been some good discussions here about such topics, for example by Urmablume. This is a webinar on MY proprietary techniques and methods. This is not sponsored by TradersLab but I'm certainly interested in that in the future. I know its short notice but really pumped about this speaking about this topic.

You can register here:
https://www4.gotomeeting.com/register/942990135

Thanks!

Spread <> Above and Below Zero

danhoyda — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 11:03:33 GMT

hey im trying to modify the tradestation indicator for the spread between two things on a % scale. the one thats on it just plots a line and I think it takes the absolute value. I would like it to trace a zero line and plot the reverse direction should a crossover occur between the two charts can anyone help me here are some screenshots of two different charts. there is nothing common with the charts.

Attached Images

	spread.jpg (176.0 KB)
	spread2.jpg (323.1 KB)

Why the Majority of Traders Lose?

khamore1 — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 02:23:15 GMT

Does it make sense?

I was always told by my trading instructor: �do something different than everybody else�. Because 95% of traders lose money

Maybe someone here will help me solve the puzzle.

If I�m part of this 95% of traders it also means that we are the majority of traders who decided to enter a trade in a certain direction, so how come we lose? Isn�t the market move to the direction where the majority of contract entered? So why we lose?

Here are a couple of answers I received which caused me more confusion

1. Goldman Sucks equals 10,000 traders , with the same breath they say �the market can�t be manipulated�

Here is my confusion, if the Goldman can go against 95% of traders and succeed than in my opinion they can own the world. Which they don�t. So why we lose?

Based on this information I come to the conclusion that 95% of traders are making money and only 5% are losing, Since I�m part of this 5% of losers I decided to switch the buttons on my computer. Now the �SELL� button is the �BUY� and vice versa.

What do you think?

Coding for Investing

ratmpower — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:35:33 GMT

Many people use proprietery language like EasyLanguage to develop automated trading strategy. I want to show you why this is not a very smart choice.
1. First of all, it is proprietery. If you change your trading platform, all that time you spent in learning the languages goes waste.
2. They are not flexible. Sure, you can write strategy like 'if the close is greater than the high of 1 day ago, then buy 100 shares at market". But what if you want to write strategy like, "If the company gets upgraded by two analysts, then buy 100 shares at market"? Its hard to do it with EasyLanguage.
3. Not the best use of your time. Why do you want to spend time learning another language that has very limited use? You cannot use EasyLanguage for anything else besides writing automated trades.

Instead, I recommend you to learn generic programming language like C#, C++, Java, Perl, PHP, Ruby etc. This offers you several advantages.
1. These languages are generic and you can migrate your strategy across platforms.
2. With generic language, you can also automate strategy like "If the company gets upgraded by two analysts, then buy 100 shares at market"
3. You can use these languages for other purposes in your life besides setting up automated trading.

As you are confortable developing strategy in generic programming language, all that is needed is a platform where you can send buy/sell orders from your program. If you want to buy/sell in a virtual environment, then http://www.strategyard.com/ is the perfect choice for you. It provides language-independent API for automating trades.
If you want to buy/sell with real broker, then go with Interactive Brokers. They offer language bindings for many of the generic languages.

Building Up Your $$

SixCoins — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 13:58:34 GMT

Apologies if this is in the wrong forum, but it seemed like a good place to put the question.

I haven't gotten the answers I've been trying to find, and I think it might be because my questions are too loaded, or because they aren't specific enough. So I think I have a new way to ask it.. Hoping to hear from the pro's on this one.

I have 3K that I can afford to lose right now. If I wanted to try day trading, what market would you tell me to look into?

To save you all some time, lets assume that I don't start trading until I've done months of studying, and practicing, and paper trading. Also assume that I realize pulling the trigger with my own money is a completely different animal from practice trading.

I know there is no single best answer, and I know that this advice won't amount to a hill of beans if I don't do the appropriate studying.....

I am just trying to avoid putting too much of my study time into an area that isn't feasible with such a small amount of money.

If you knowledgeable and experienced traders had to start over with 3k, where would you start?

Listening Intently,

Steve.

Volume Direction Indicator (alert)

danhoyda — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 04:11:40 GMT

Hi everyone I am not very familiar with tradestation easy language, I got a indicator I like on this website. i think it was walter that led me to it or tams. Forgive me if I have got the person wrong.

I would like to add a alert when a quick increase or decrease happens. or even if a level is hit. so i know. Thanks for all the help, here is the code.

[LegacyColorValue = true];

{ WAV_Vol_3 Indicator WAV 8/20/05

intended for intra-day sessions only

plots histogram showing both upTicks and DownTicks for a bar in
real time - the larger of the 2 is always shown on top

plots volume average

plots mid-point of total average as a dot

}
inputs:
AvgLen(20), //length used in volume average
UpColor(green),
DnColor(red);

vars:
VolAvg(0), //plotted vol avg
Vol(0); //intra-bar volume (ticks)

//only for intra-day
if BarType < 2 then
begin
Vol = ticks; //sum of upticks and downticks

VolAvg = average(vol,AvgLen);
plot1(VolAvg,"Avg Vol");

//do not change order of following
//be sure both plot3 and plo4 are same width
if UpTicks < DownTicks then
begin
plot3(UpTicks,"UpDn",UpCo lor);
plot4(vol,"Total",DnColor );
end else
begin
plot3(DownTicks,"UpDn",Dn Color);
plot4(vol,"Total",UpColor );
end;

//plot mid point of total ticks with a dot
//dot should fit within histogram
plot2(Vol/2,"Mid-Vol");

end;//if BarType

Forex Trading

SixCoins — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:47:59 GMT

Hello.

I've been doing some research about day trading, starting with a low balance. What I am looking at now is Forex.

I'm using a demo from FXCM. I've done one imaginary trade, and It seems like this is not really the way to go for someone who isn't trading without large amounts of money...

Currently, I've purchased 1 micro lot of JPY, at 76.221. Roughly, this means I have 76,221 Yen. In order for this to make even 1% the price of Yen needs to go up to 76.983 today. That would give me a $10.00 profit.

Maybe it's just my inexperience talking, but I don't see that happening. I watched the prices for about an hour, and they simply didn't move. Well, they did move. Down. Slowly. I concede that I did not study the USD/JPY market. I just took a position to see it in action.

My initial thought's are that it's unrealistic to try to build up funds on the Forex without first having a large amount in the account. Millions of teeny increases necessary. Not a few hundred tiny increases. Use a large fortune to make a small fortune. (Luck and years of experience notwithstanding.)

I'd like to hear your thoughts on my cockemamy plan to use small funds in the Forex market.

On a side note... I don't expect to make large amounts of money starting with small amounts.. HOWEVER.... I think starting with a small amount will minimize my risk while I learn the game. I am very interested in this study. I just want to start in the right place. Is there such a place?

Thanks for reading. I'm listening to every suggestion. Ideally, the best answer would be "if you really want to do day trading with limited means, you need to study X market with no less than X amount of money"

I feel I have months of learning to do before I even begin trading, but I need to start learning the right stuff.

Can anyone point me in the right direction?

Listening Intently.

Thanks in Advance,
Steve.

Outlook for FTSE, Dax & Eurostoxx Futures

CharmerCharts — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 11:30:19 GMT

FTSE had an opening gap to 5643 and despite filling it below, we broke and held above good resistance all afternoon at 5652. We now look to this level as good support and look to bounce from this level.
5652 remains support but sell a break of 5643 tomorrow for 5625 and possibly a test of the weeks' low at 5609. This is good support and we would cover all shorts here and try small longs keeping stops below 5581. Below here we have support at 5558 before January lows at 5539 we would attempt longs here keeping stops below 5524. If we manage to get through here look to 5501.
If we see a bounce look to 5672/75 before 5686/89 and then good resistance at 5712/15 this area is now trend line and fib so we should be sellers up with stops above 5738. above here we would be looking to test the highs at 5763/66.

Dax headed higher to 6515/22 giving us a chance to establish shorts as we topped at 6538.
We look for pressure to the downside today and we can take profit on those shorts at 6463/58 if we have not already yesterday afternoon. Below here look for 6430 support and then Monday�s low at 6416. A break lower could be expected
today to target that 6393/83 level. If this fails today we should see prices heading for a test of good support at 6351.
Cover all shorts and attempt longs here as we look for a short term bounce. Stops on longs needed below 6335 for 6323/20 and possibly 6295/85.
Resistance at 6493/98 then the 6522/38 area. This should be tough to beat but if we make it higher look to establish shorts once again at 6570/80 as we look for a double topping pattern and weakness in to the end of the week to follow.
Pressure is now building for a move lower in to next week.

Eurostoxx did bounce for a selling opportunity with pressure seen remaining to the downside at this stage.
Failure to get through 2422 keeps the sellers in control for a retest of 2397/93. Be prepared for a break below this support today for a slide to 2370 next. Cover shorts here with the chance of a bounce back to at least 2393/96. However a break below 2370 allows the gap to be filled down to 2360. Attempt longs here for a resumption of the longer term up trend, adding to shorts down at 2351/47. We are very unlikely to fall any further but stop losses needed as always and this time below 2336.
Above 2422/20 can go for yesterday�s highs at 2435/40 and if this does not hold a visit to 2446/50 is possible. Attempt shorts here and add to these shorts up to 2468. As stated, we look for this level to hold the upside again. However if we do manage to break higher today we may stretch to 2502/09. There is a combination of many resistances here so unload any longs and attempt shorts up in this area.

Todays Outlook for Spot Gold, and WTI Crude

CharmerCharts — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:24:46 GMT

WTI Crude Oil tried to rally again reaching as far as 101.10/30 where we advised attempting shorts and indeed the market topped out at 101.29.

Pressure does remain to the downside with the large double top pattern looking to dominate in the weeks to come. A move below 98.50/40 should then signal a test of recent lows at 97.55/40 today. Failure here is very possible today and would then set us up for a test of very good support at 96.94 which would be expected to attract buyers and therefore hold the downside today. Cover all shorts here.

If we can get back above 98.90/99.00 we can test resistance at 99.90/100. We may not make it any higher today so attempt short positions here with stop losses placed above 100.60. A break through here brightens the short term out look allowing a return to 101.10/30. Attempt short positions here once again today with stop losses placed above 101.65. Attempt shorts then in the 102.00/25 area.

Spot Gold:

Gold broke the 1739 barrier yesterday reaching 1747 before coming back below 1739. We are overbought on the daily charts..and there is still a case for further correction to address this scenario�

A move back to 1718/14 should not be ruled out over the next 2 sessions and we would like to see buyers in at these lower levels�.however if a decline to here does not alter the overbought state of the market we should expect further weakness to 1696/93 which is the first med tem fib level� we would expect buyers in defending this support and we will hold longs unless a break below 1690 occurs.

Now if we climb back and hold above 1739 we should shrug off the overbought state of affairs and try for 1747 once more...A break above here keeps the immediate pressure to the topside seeing 1756 then is the short term objective.

Rigged and Predetermined

tradingadvantagetm — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 08:44:31 GMT

You have often heard me say that the market is rigged, which it most certainly is via the Federal Reserve�s overall interest rate �engineering,� as well as outright manipulations through quantitative easing (QE), backdoor bailouts, POMO, massive swap lines, etc.

Many of you believe that national elections are also rigged and therefore predetermined. Perhaps this is true in the USSA and why not; after all, the Fed will stop at nothing to �save� the banking mafia via the few things mentioned above. And there is so much more to list; however, what�s happening in Europe is frightening and that�s what I�ll focus on. What is happening over there is indeed rigged & predetermined; it is now out in the open for all to see; and it is yet again for the benefit of the banking mafia.

1. In early November of 2011 the Prime Minster of Greece, George Papandreou, had the temerity to announce he would allow the people of Greece to vote on a referendum regarding the Greek bailouts, and thus the �austerity� they were going through. The bailouts are wildly unpopular and therefore were sure to fail. This, of course, would go against the predetermined plans for Greece, and by extension the bailouts of the banking mafia. Within hours, Mr. Papandreou was removed from office not by the people of Greece, but by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels.
2. In mid-November of 2011 the Prime Minster of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, also had the temerity to announce he was unhappy with the talked-about �austerity� that was coming his way when Italian bond yields spiked. This, of course, would go against the predetermined plans for Italy, and by extension the actual bailouts of the banking mafia. Within days, Mr. Berlusconi was removed from office not by the people of Italy, but by pressure from unelected Eurocrats in Brussels. Additionally, the unelected Eurocrats put an ex-banking mafia elitist in charge as its stooge.
3. Recently, Greece has made overtones that future �austerity� will not be welcome. It has done enough for now, Greek politicians say. This goes against the predetermined plan for Greece and may hurt the banking mafia so the pressure has been raised: Germany is demanding that Greece lose it sovereignty. The unelected Germans and Eurocrats in Brussels are demanding that Greece have no future control over its own budget. This has gone too far! How will the Greek people respond to this?
4. Finally, the president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, has a high probability of losing the upcoming election and since he is part of the unelected bullies that pressure other countries, he must be saved. Losing Sarkozy raises the real possibility that the new president won�t go along with the predetermined outcomes they want for the banking mafia. Therefore, the chancellor of Germany just announced that she will help rig the presidency in France to get the predetermined outcome they all seem to want. She will actively campaign for Sarkozy's re-election.

In the Global Post we read Hermann Gr�he, the general secretary of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said over the weekend that Merkel would "actively support Nicolas Sarkozy with joint appearances in the election campaign in the spring," The Guardian reported.

"France needs a strong president at its head, and...The UMP and France are in good hands with Nicolas Sarkozy, who has demonstrated foresight," Gr�he said, according to Le Figaro. (Read: Gr�he knows better who should be president of France than the French people and therefore the Germans should intervene�it�s being rigged)

Hermann Gr�he, the general secretary of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said over the weekend that Merkel would "actively support Nicolas Sarkozy with joint appearances in the election campaign in the spring," The Guardian reported.

"I did not know she voted in France," the French president said in an interview with multiple television channels on Sunday evening.

It is a rare move for Merkel; European politicians tend to have an "unspoken pact" to not interfere with other countries' elections, according to the Guardian.

The end of the last sentence should read� European politicians tend to have an "unspoken pact" to not interfere with other countries' elections�until NOW. After all, there are banksters to be bailed out and national sovereignty will never come before a bankster�s profit.

The Onion had this nailed years ago in The Sham Election that you can watch here�

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrDzZCOQtI

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called �experts.�

Larry Levin

Avafx Forex Broker

henryduncan12 — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 08:26:16 GMT

AVAFX is a metatrader broker and I want to share some points about this broker.

Fixed spreads*
FREE advanced online forex trading tools
Dozens of currency pairs and metals
Daily exclusive institutional analysis
24-Hour** trading and support
Trade immediately by credit card,PayPal or WebMoney.
Start trading forex with as little as $100
200:1 leverage***
No commissions or fees****
Trading account in multiple currencies

If you would like to open an trading account with AVAFX then please go through the following link: https://www.avafx.com/Real-Registration-Steps/

Www.tradewithprobability. com - Any Opinions?

Big Will — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 06:13:46 GMT

Had a chance to see their monthly report and it actually had some impressive calls.

Are there any other users out there? I'm usually late to the party....

Intervention

RealDemo — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 22:15:20 GMT

Just wondering if any FX traders out there, have, or are thinking about putting on trades in pairs where the risk of intervention is high at the moment.

EURCHF and USDJPY are obviously the two launch pads in question.

The SNB have been barking on about defending 1.20, the JCB are rather more mercurial.