[johnw]

Originally Posted by emg »

will not work. don't know how to explain it.

Originally Posted by TheNegotiator »

Emg, if you want to post in this thread you'll have to at least attempt to explain your thinking more than you do in your thread "Emini S&P 500 Day Trading Journal".

Hi Neg,

I think that emg has explained exactly where he is coming from.

[sdoma]

Good morning traders!

Anyway, you can see that price is gradually being pressed into your support. Swing highs are lower, and lower, and lower. If price can break through and hold beneath your support, I could see it going to 1295 in the near term. It all depends on how long you want to hold the trade.

So, how do you plan to play this?

Also, this is hindsight, since I didn't have time to post it this morning, but the scenario I envisioned worked out nicely. Before the start of opening trading, I envision what I believe are the two or three most likely scenarios. My first scenario today was the Dow breaking support and auctioning down to the top of the unfilled gap, at 12359. That level also happens to be the 100% fib projection, so we have some nice confluence there.

This wasn't that easy to play, though. It looks simple here on the 405 min, but when we zoom down to the intraday data, you can see how there were a lot of fakeouts for a day trader. I put some numbers on the second chart. Match them up to these bullets.

1. This was when it seemed that my play would be fairly straightforward. We opened, auctioned up to the support from the larger chart, and immediately failed.

2. As you can see, however, it was not straightforward. Price made a low, then began to chop back up. This is when being a day player is nice, you can preserve some profit.

3. Market chops back up to support, tests, fails, tests again and fails, and auctions back towards the low. This is where it started to get tough. I was short, expecting at least a test of support, which it didn't quite give me.

4. Price accumulated and then broke out to the upside. At this point I began to turn bullish and looked to a gap fill. I played the retest of support and got chopped around a bit in the process. Market filled half the gap, at which point I noticed major amounts of selling in the order flow. Sellers came in in increasing numbers, absorbing the mo mo buying and gradually beating back the assault.

5. As prices began to turn back down, I was somewhat hesitant to jump back in short, but did so anyway with a trailing stop.

6. The market began to accelerate as it moved down, breaking that support yet again and auctioning to the low.

7. At that point, no significant buyers stepped in and the sellers pounded price through the lows. I didn't hold all the way to 12359, but I got most of it.

I'm not posting this to brag. I made money, but not as much as I could have or perhaps even should have because of the fakeouts and choppiness of the move. However, because I knew this was a distinct possibility for the day's action, I was able to keep my head through the chop, switch sides when it looked like I was wrong so I didn't get pounded too badly, and eventually have a nice payday.

I hope this helps some of the new people out there. This is what trading is. You have to be light on your feet. Creating a good plan is easy, as is making decent market calls. Trading those beliefs profitably is an entirely different story.

[emg]

Originally Posted by sdoma »

Good morning traders!

Anyway, you can see that price is gradually being pressed into your support. Swing highs are lower, and lower, and lower. If price can break through and hold beneath your support, I could see it going to 1295 in the near term. It all depends on how long you want to hold the trade.

So, how do you plan to play this?

Also, this is hindsight, since I didn't have time to post it this morning, but the scenario I envisioned worked out nicely. Before the start of opening trading, I envision what I believe are the two or three most likely scenarios. My first scenario today was the Dow breaking support and auctioning down to the top of the unfilled gap, at 12359. That level also happens to be the 100% fib projection, so we have some nice confluence there.

This wasn't that easy to play, though. It looks simple here on the 405 min, but when we zoom down to the intraday data, you can see how there were a lot of fakeouts for a day trader. I put some numbers on the second chart. Match them up to these bullets.

1. This was when it seemed that my play would be fairly straightforward. We opened, auctioned up to the support from the larger chart, and immediately failed.

2. As you can see, however, it was not straightforward. Price made a low, then began to chop back up. This is when being a day player is nice, you can preserve some profit.

3. Market chops back up to support, tests, fails, tests again and fails, and auctions back towards the low. This is where it started to get tough. I was short, expecting at least a test of support, which it didn't quite give me.

4. Price accumulated and then broke out to the upside. At this point I began to turn bullish and looked to a gap fill. I played the retest of support and got chopped around a bit in the process. Market filled half the gap, at which point I noticed major amounts of selling in the order flow. Sellers came in in increasing numbers, absorbing the mo mo buying and gradually beating back the assault.

5. As prices began to turn back down, I was somewhat hesitant to jump back in short, but did so anyway with a trailing stop.

6. The market began to accelerate as it moved down, breaking that support yet again and auctioning to the low.

7. At that point, no significant buyers stepped in and the sellers pounded price through the lows. I didn't hold all the way to 12359, but I got most of it.

I'm not posting this to brag. I made money, but not as much as I could have or perhaps even should have because of the fakeouts and choppiness of the move. However, because I knew this was a distinct possibility for the day's action, I was able to keep my head through the chop, switch sides when it looked like I was wrong so I didn't get pounded too badly, and eventually have a nice payday.

I hope this helps some of the new people out there. This is what trading is. You have to be light on your feet. Creating a good plan is easy, as is making decent market calls. Trading those beliefs profitably is an entirely different story.

gap trading does not work. many uses gap and still losing

[emg]

Originally Posted by TheNegotiator »

If you have no way of backing yourself up and nothing to add, you will be prevented from posting here. By all means disagree and back yourself up. However, this is a forum for ideas.

I suggest to anyone who is interested, take a look at emg's thread and the lack of detail or substantiation of any trade.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...g-7705-86.html

ban me if u want to. My opinion and comments have value. I posted my comment and you deleted them, That post have value.

Good luck in your trading

[TheNegotiator]

Well substantiated sdoma. Pity about it being post the event! I actually made some decent money when it became clear the market was not accelerating lower and ran a trade from the ES opening price (1322) back into yesterday's range. Pity about the short later on but it really doesn't matter too much. I'm not really a multiday position trader but I wanted get the thread started as I think it could be a really beneficial one for many to see reasoning then how the market plays out.

emg your posts are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

[Tams]

"ignore" is taking its effect.

[TheNegotiator]

Well clearly that particular trade didn't work. But hey, you can't win them all and the nature of the business is to look for trades which you believe have high risk:reward ratios. That particular trade had it worked, could've been very profitable. I hope more traders want to discuss their trading ideas here.

[sdoma]

Right now, we are at an interesting point in the Dow. It has been channeling down for a few weeks, but today it challenged the upper end of the range and closed not too far away from it. Tomorrow, that trend line point is at approximately 12,600, and yesterday's high is 12,616. There is a decent probability that the market will test that price zone, at which point I will be waiting for it to be rejected or accepted.

I am hoping for a decent move either way. If price is rejected, I think yesterday's lows are a good initial target, followed by the midpoint of the channel, 12513 and 12445 respectively. Unless it really gets randy, I would be looking to be out at one of those price points.

If we see a breakout to the upside, I would make use of my SUPER SECRET PROPRIETARY volatility targets (only $4,000 a month and worth every penny!). You also have a zone of 12666 - 12681 where I could see price probing.

Of course, a third, and dreaded, scenario is a choppy inside type day. At that point, toss up bollinger bands or keltner channels and start fading.