[suckassjuice]

Steve,

If you do in fact “work for one of those European desks” and you meld that with your belief that the best “…time to move markets with the least amount of resistance (is) when a sizable percentage of participants are unconscious”, exactly when is it that a sizable percentage are in fact unconscious? Please provide the GMT times (duration) when you believe this happens. This undoubtedly will help us all get "...THE POINT."

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by steve46 »

I am pretty sure I do realize that, because I work for one of those European desks, and if you find my comment offensive, I suggest you ignore it.....there problem solved.

and finally, "who cares about a bunch of sleeping foreigners"...ah yes FINALLY....you see its not about foreigners champ.....its about SLEEPING....!!!! SO LETS SEE IF YOU OR ANYONE FOR THAT MATTER CAN GET THE POINT....we all have to sleep....therefore what better time to move markets with the least amount of resistance, than when a sizable percentage of participants are unconcious lol......

So once again (and I think for the final time since I am not a patient person) what works (for me at least) is to capitalize on the fact that markets are moved by human beings.....and those human beings act in predictable ways...knowing that...if a person is observant...he or she could take advantage (and I tried to show that some folks already do "take advantage") and in the process...make a nice profit...

So as in all things, some will "get it" some will not, and like a good boy scout, I did my good deed for the day\week/month/quarter/and year....best wishes to everyone for a nice holiday season....good luck eveyone

Steve, it seems that you put yourself in the group that "get it" who know how to "take advantage" . of the views that you are presenting. Of course, your views need to be correct in order to "take advantage" of the things that you "get." Typically, arrogance and condescension, which your posts are riddled with tend to indicate that there is a separate agenda that you are trying to promote.

Out of curiosity, where do you get the idea that people act predictably? Sheep, cows, dogs, maybe geese act predictably. People do not. If anything, they act strategically, but certainly not predictably. So I guess you can argue that it "works for you" to think that people act "predictably" but, then, not everyone else can take advantage of what "works for you". Generally, when someone thinks that it" works for them" they are holding onto a belief that is is unfounded and are one loss or disappointment away from changing what "works for them".

In summation, Imho, you fall into the group who think they know what trading the S&P is all about. The market has a way of humbling the egotistical. Careful when you actually put your own money into the market. It loves people who think they are right.

Regards,


MM

[suckassjuice]

Steve,

Exactly when is it that a sizable percentage of traders are in fact unconscious? I'd really like to know.

[jim380]

I think this is a great thread. There is a few qns which I have about institution traders, I will be glad if some light can be shed on these qns

1. How many total number contracts do these market movers typical trade in ES? 100? 1000? 100,000? What is their inventory level? If they can move the ES, surely we are looking not at just a couple of thousand contracts but in terms multiple of 100K at lest, am I right?

2. How long do they usually hold their position?

3. Do they have stops?

[steve46]

Thanks for your question(s)

First be aware that I am limited in what I can say regarding my practice.

Second with regard to postion size, I will refer you to the CME for their limits...As you can see participants can move size if they want.

http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/CME/I/5/5.pdf#page=54

With regard to how long a inventory is held, that depends on the participant and their goals, as an example, some institutions have a charter that defines how they will committ funds. If they are required to keep all monies in the market then that is what they will do. Others have discretion to keep a certain percentage of funds in cash, or to place funds in a variety of markets (not just the S&P). As mentioned in previous posts, when institutional participants find themselves with significant profits on their books, especially at the end of the year, it is not unusual for them to agressively manage risk by "taking some off the table". They can do this in a number of ways including use of options (called "buying insurance" in the industry) or "going to cash" (thus avoiding paying for insurance).

Regarding stops unfortunately again I am restricted. What I can tell you is that stop size varies with participants, many of whom are using volatility based stops or have in place what you might characterize as "catastrophic" stops. For my personal account I often use a 6 point stop.

Hope some of this helps

[steve46]

Originally Posted by suckassjuice »

Steve,

Exactly when is it that a sizable percentage of traders are in fact unconscious? I'd really like to know.

Okay, so I will answer this one with one example chart.

The DAX market in Germany opens and the time is 11:00pm on the west coast USA, (2am on the East Coast USA) and if you look at the chart you can see that if they decide to mark that market up or down, the bulk of the move takes place throughout the night. I think its fair to assume that the majority of folks living in the continental USA are asleep at this time. Also if you were to look at either a DOM or a Time & Sales Strip for the ES contract, you would see that it is "shallow", that is to say there less volume transacting on the Globex during this period, and yet it moves for the most part in lockstep with the DAX....

Frankly I don't know of a simpler way to explain this...

[steve46]

Based on my previous posts, I think this chart should be self-explanatory

Price opened and retraced down to wholesale levels, below the value area low (at 1186.50)

At this level, one would be tempted to take the relatively low risk entry anywhere around 84

Why? because the risk is limited as seen on the chart to the previous low, and we assume that participants are motivated to move this market up to defend the previous month's open at 1186.25 and eventually to try to exceed the previous week's open at 1192. If that thinking is correct, then a profit target at or near 1195 would serve as a primary target, with a secondary target about 10 points higher at 1205+

Of course the best laid plans are only speculation. Any news event (the Irish bailout, news about Spain, Portugal, or some other event not on the horizon) could effect the markets negatively. We will see. Finally we want to inform all readers that our comments are offered for educational purposes only.

Thanks

Good luck

[TradeRunner]

Hi Steve

Nice to see you back here.

Originally Posted by steve46 »

My opinion is that they want to defend what they have earned so far this year (performance bonuses) and they want to do that, with as little risk as possible. One way of accomplishing that is to move markets north in the overnight, when a lot of folks are sleeping.

I think you are saying that the ES market is moved to an advantageous technical position overnight when volume is light and therefore easier to manipulate.

but then you say...

Originally Posted by steve46 »

Also if you were to look at either a DOM or a Time & Sales Strip for the ES contract, you would see that it is "shallow", that is to say there less volume transacting on the Globex during this period, and yet it moves for the most part in lockstep with the DAX....

In this quote you are saying the European markets take the lead and ES follows whilst outside the US session. Why would it be less risky to move the ES overnight when you would in fact have to move the large European market - who are wide awake?

TradeRunner