[FFTrader]

I am testing a set up with 10 trades of 3 contracts each and the results (conservative estimates) yielded a net return after commission of 3.62 points.

This is for the ES and it is for day trading. Approximately 5 trades a day.

Without me detailing what it is, would you trade this set up?

[BlowFish]

Not enough info really there is a similar thread here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post90520 that mentions some things people would want to know to evaluate performance.

[FFTrader]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Not enough info really there is a similar thread here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post90520 that mentions some things people would want to know to evaluate performance.

Thank you BlowFish. I guess I am asking an expectancy question? That is, how much profits can I expect from a good set up ... my set up above basically means that after 30 contracts / 10 trades of 3 each, I get 3.62 points net. Per contract that is slightly over 1 tick on the ES. Although conservative in that 3.62 number, I am not sure I am close to a realistic target or too far away.

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by FFTrader »

Thank you BlowFish. I guess I am asking an expectancy question? That is, how much profits can I expect from a good set up ... my set up above basically means that after 30 contracts / 10 trades of 3 each, I get 3.62 points net. Per contract that is slightly over 1 tick on the ES. Although conservative in that 3.62 number, I am not sure I am close to a realistic target or too far away.

3 crucial parameters are typical amount put at risk (in ticks will do), typical win size (again ticks are fine) and %winners. You need that info as a basis to evaluate anything much. This will indeed allow you to calculate expectancy but more importantly risk of ruin. These three parameters tend to have a direct effect on each other. For example if you decrease the amount you put at risk or increase your target % winners will drop.