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steve46

Steve's Basic System for Retail Traders

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Okay so I have been working on a "simplified" version of the system that I normally use.

 

This version uses data from the previous 5 and 10 day trading sessions to create a distribution of values where price will tend to move from extremes to the midpoint (or to the opposite extreme).

 

I use two basic charts, a long term (either 90 or 130 min is fine) and the second a 3 min entry chart....

 

I don't use indicators as such, but I because my entries rely on recognition of a specific pattern, I have a way of making it easier to visualize the pattern by placing Bollinger bands on the entry screen so that potential entries can be seen right away...(I call this "training wheels" for those who remember back to learning to ride a bike).

 

I'm not willing to go into all the details of how I create the distributions....I don't have the time nor the inclination to go through a year (or more) of statistics but those who have a background will be able to figure it out I am sure...and the rest of you should go get a basic stat text and start getting a background (if you find it interesting).

 

Here are the basic charts for today

5aa71131e654b_Daily130MinwithDailyDistribution.thumb.PNG.c9a8a7fd0e1dbfc2d460fb16c24c1e74.PNG

5aa71131eca70_Todays3MinEntryScreen.thumb.PNG.694d28f6170dde46228632babffc4817.PNG

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I am going to fold my tent for the weekend so I thought I would post this last note

 

The attached charts show the 3 minute entry chart and the red arrow shows the reversal near the top of the profit target range.

 

Next to that chart I show a 1 minute view....and the reason I show this is because on a 1 minute time scale it is easier (I think) to see the algo pattern that I use as a signal to trade

 

for me the important part is not the pattern itself but how it is used...you see once you are in a trade, what you can do is to monitor price action (once you get familiar with it) and as long as price continues to move favorably (and you don't see a pattern emerge on your screen) you can stay with the trade confident that you have a good chance to extend your profits....

 

My general rule is to look for 5 and 10 point moves over periods of time from 30 minutes to several hours...

 

For retail traders the challenges are basically as follows

 

1. You have to find a systematic approach that generates at least 3 high probability entries per session

2. The trader has to be able to anticipate, recognize and take the trades without hesitation

3. When a trader obtains favorable entry, overall success is determined in relation to A. how long the trader can stay in the position B. size of the position and profit taking rules and C. Ability to manage risk.

 

For this market and others (since the markets are exhibiting significant correlation) entry and exits are time dependent....meaning that the trader would do well to notice that entries occur at specific times of the day....Today for example the best entries occurred at 6am PST (pre-position), at 7am PST and at 7:30am (for the first pullback)

 

Good luck

5aa7113218fc4_AlgoPatternExample.thumb.PNG.56ed59b27b4ad0bfece3ee614472bd24.PNG

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I am going to fold my tent for the weekend so I thought I would post this last note

 

What - you live in a tent!?!?!

 

Don't worry tiger (grrrrr), the markets can be tough!

 

I'm sure you'll make it all back . . . one good trade is all it takes ;) How long have you been "in the tent" for?

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Few observations... not trying to compete but just stating the obvious.

 

1. What is the "specific" pattern? Steve, you mention "specific algo pattern". But you don't even describe a general pattern to any degree -- let alone a specific set of rules for identifying the pattern algorithmic-ally.

 

2. I barely know statistics but I think it is relevant to mention a few important facets for beginners sense you keep mentioning the importance of statistics.

 

First, Bollinger Bands are really just standard deviation bands. I'm not really sure how John Bollinger got credited for such a trivial concept. The meaning/relevance of an X standard deviation is only relevant for normal distributions. The market is said to be both non normal (unknown distribution) and non stationary (mean moves). In essence, this means that an X standard deviation move has no statistical meaning. The 68-95-99.7 rule does not apply to the markets. This is the same reason that one can't rely on a "balanced" market profile distribution (normally distributed) in a statistical/algorithmic sense. The market can generate infinite variety of distributions.

 

Most statistical measures can not be applied to the markets formally because most statistical measures have various underlying assumptions that will not be true in the market. For example, correlation only applies to linear relationships.

 

Of course, I'm sure some traders can apply incorrect statistical measures to the market and make it work for them. But its important when making such errors to be generally aware of them.

 

Steve, as you can imagine.. I don't see any system here at all.

 

--- Wikipedia says it better

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollinger_bands#Statistical_properties

 

Security price returns have no known statistical distribution, normal or otherwise; they are known to have fat tails, compared to a normal distribution.[8] The sample size typically used, 20, is too small for conclusions derived from statistical techniques like the central limit theorem to be reliable. Such techniques usually require the sample to be independent and identically distributed which is not the case for a time series like security prices. In point of fact, just the opposite is true; it is well recognized by practitioners that such price series are very commonly serially correlated – that is, it is the case that the next price will be closely related to its ancestor 'most of the time'.

For these three principal reasons, it is incorrect to assume that the percentage of the data that will be observed in the future outside the Bollinger Bands range will always be constrained to a certain amount. Instead of finding about 95% of the data inside the bands, as would be the expectation with the default parameters if the data were normally distributed, studies have found that only about 88% of security prices remain within the bands.[9]

Edited by Predictor

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.... I barely know statistics but ....

 

 

Its always bad news when someone starts by admitting that they are innumerate and then starts talking about statistics. What follows just displays their ignorance and is best ignored - although you have to love the use of the word "but."

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Okay so I have been working on a "simplified" version of the system that I normally use.

 

This version uses data from the previous 5 and 10 day trading sessions to create a distribution of values where price will tend to move from extremes to the midpoint (or to the opposite extreme).

 

I use two basic charts, a long term (either 90 or 130 min is fine) and the second a 3 min entry chart....

 

I don't use indicators as such, but I because my entries rely on recognition of a specific pattern, I have a way of making it easier to visualize the pattern by placing Bollinger bands on the entry screen so that potential entries can be seen right away...(I call this "training wheels" for those who remember back to learning to ride a bike).

 

I'm not willing to go into all the details of how I create the distributions....I don't have the time nor the inclination to go through a year (or more) of statistics but those who have a background will be able to figure it out I am sure...and the rest of you should go get a basic stat text and start getting a background (if you find it interesting).

 

Here are the basic charts for today

 

Steve - I notice from your screen shots that you have some important MSFT updates to install. Your computer may be at risk if you fail to keep it up to date.

 

:)

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1. What is the "specific" pattern? Steve, you mention "specific algo pattern". But you don't even describe a general pattern to any degree -- let alone a specific set of rules for identifying the pattern algorithmic-ally.

 

The "specific pattern" is attaching CATCHY PHRASES to the names of hindsight entries ..

.. without defining The_Setup.

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Its always bad news when someone starts by admitting that they are innumerate and then starts talking about statistics. What follows just displays their ignorance and is best ignored - although you have to love the use of the word "but."

 

If all TL readers read as thoughtfully and as carefully as SpideySense, vendors and charlatans would have a much shorter shelf life here than they currently seem to enjoy. Most would have read that line and thought nothing of swallowing what follows whole without a thought to viewing it through a critical lens.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited by thalestrader
spelling

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Few observations... The meaning/relevance of an X standard deviation is only relevant for normal distributions. The market is said to be both non normal (unknown distribution) and non stationary (mean moves).

 

Hi Predictor,

 

You have suggested two reasons why Bollinger Bands might be ineffective:

 

  1. If only 88% of prices fall within a 2 standard deviation band, then why not just widen the bands? A 2.6 standard deviation band might, for instance, be sufficient to encompass 95% of prices. All very improper for the statisticians (try saying that word after a few drinks!) - but I certainly wouldn't be too concerned about the gaussian attributes of my bands if they made me lots of money . . . I don't think fat tails are really the problem here.
     
  2. Non-stationarity is much more of an issue, I think. If you could always know the relevant mean to apply (ie the optimum lookback for your Bollinger Bands), then I don't think the non-normal distribution would be too much of an issue.

 

Although I personally wouldn't want to try and use Bollinger Bands for entry or exit signals (and Steve states anyhow that these are simply there as a reference), I can't see that there's too much wrong with the underlying concept that Steve is presenting here. Markets ALWAYS revert to their mean - the difficulty lies in knowing to which mean the market is reverting at any given time.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Hi Predictor,

 

You have suggested two reasons why Bollinger Bands might be ineffective:

 


  1. [*If ]only 88% of prices fall within a 2 standard deviation band, then why not just widen the bands? A 2.6 standard deviation band might, for instance, be sufficient to encompass 95% of prices. All very improper for the statisticians (try saying that word after a few drinks!) - but I certainly wouldn't be too concerned about the gaussian attributes of my bands if they made me lots of money . . . I don't think fat tails are really the problem here.
     
  2. Non-stationarity is much more of an issue, I think. If you could always know the relevant mean to apply (ie the optimum lookback for your Bollinger Bands), then I don't think the non-normal distribution would be too much of an issue.

 

Although I personally wouldn't want to try and use Bollinger Bands for entry or exit signals (and Steve states anyhow that these are simply there as a reference), I can't see that there's too much wrong with the underlying concept that Steve is presenting here. Markets ALWAYS revert to their mean - the difficulty lies in knowing to which mean the market is reverting at any given time.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

 

Maybe so, but as we all know, the markets can remain irrational (non mean reverting?) longer than a trader can remain solvent! :)

 

Why wouldnt you use BB's as an entry signal? If they contain 88-95% of price data, surely the BB would offer great opportunity to someone who believes in reversion to the mean? Thats one of the fundamental concepts of the BB.

 

If I were into mechanical TA systems, they'd be right up there for me. But, alas thats very much an off the cuff statement, as Im not into mechanical TA systems.

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Maybe so, but as we all know, the markets can remain irrational (non mean reverting?) longer than a trader can remain solvent! :)

 

I would disagree with that statement. I think it would be better say that markets can remain in a state of reversion to a mean that is different to the one we were betting on, for longer than we can remain solvent.

 

I'll repeat what I said before - a market is always reverting to some mean or another (in whatever timeframe). The only time that there is an exception to this rule is when a market ticks to a new all-time high.

 

You can prove this to yourself with a price chart. Select the a random closing price on any chart in any timeframe. Now add a moving average. If you adjust the lookback period, you will always be able to find a moving average towards which your selected closing price was moving.

 

Why wouldnt you use BB's as an entry signal? If they contain 88-95% of price data, surely the BB would offer great opportunity to someone who believes in reversion to the mean? Thats one of the fundamental concepts of the BB.

 

Because the mean moves (Predictor's second point), but not because price distributions have fat tails (Predictor's first point). If the average in the middle is "wrong", then it matters not whether the number of standard deviations is "right".

 

If I were into mechanical TA systems, they'd be right up there for me. But, alas thats very much an off the cuff statement, as Im not into mechanical TA systems.

 

Indeed, the point of my post was that there isn't necessarily anything wrong with using Bollinger Bands in the way Steve46 describes. There are certainly difficulties - Predictor posed two of these, and I suggested that I felt the one was valid and the other not - but these difficulties don't necessarily mean that Steve46's post should be dismissed out of hand.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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The "specific pattern" is attaching CATCHY PHRASES to the names of hindsight entries ..

.. without defining The_Setup.

 

As usual you set yourself up to be batted around like a game of "whack a mole"....

 

"Specific pattern" is simple two (2) words....not "catchy" at all....very descriptive and it means what it says...this "specific pattern" which I have characterized as algorithmic in nature, has been posted again and again here on this site....in Negotiator's thread on trading the ES contract...in fact others have commented on it...if you find the concept interesting I invite you to do your own research by reading that thread...

 

As far as the setup, in my experience it is the "setup" that losing traders are most interested in....believing that it is the only thing they need to find success (it may be that you are a member of that club)...clearly thats not the case...so I leave it until later while I cover more important information...if this doesn't suit you, once again I invite you cordially to point & click somewhere else...

 

hindsight...? yes that is true...and again if you find this thread unsuitable for your purposes I invite you to find a thread you are more interested in...thanks for your very profound comment....and goodbye....

Edited by steve46

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on a 1 minute time scale it is easier (I think) to see the algo pattern that I use as a signal to trade

 

Algorithms are precisely defined setups. Theres never a question whether an algorithm is present (or not present). The uncertainty you are conveying (where thinking enters the equation) is characteristic of discretionary (or loosely defined vague and uncertain) requirements. Not algorithmic patterns.

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Also (fyi while on the subject of the precise meaning of words) .. It is imperative to understand there are real penalties associated with threatening battery.

 

As usual you set yourself up to be batted around like a game of "whack a mole"....

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Okay so I have been working on a "simplified" version of the system that I normally use.

 

This version uses data from the previous 5 and 10 day trading sessions to create a distribution of values where price will tend to move from extremes to the midpoint (or to the opposite extreme).

 

I use two basic charts, a long term (either 90 or 130 min is fine) and the second a 3 min entry chart....

 

I don't use indicators as such, but I because my entries rely on recognition of a specific pattern, I have a way of making it easier to visualize the pattern by placing Bollinger bands on the entry screen so that potential entries can be seen right away...(I call this "training wheels" for those who remember back to learning to ride a bike).

 

I'm not willing to go into all the details of how I create the distributions....I don't have the time nor the inclination to go through a year (or more) of statistics but those who have a background will be able to figure it out I am sure...and the rest of you should go get a basic stat text and start getting a background (if you find it interesting).

 

Here are the basic charts for today

 

Thanks Steve,

 

Your experience is always thankful.

 

When i woke up yesterday, my view of the market was downward for the moment and choppy. Market going up was not on my mind, lesson learned to be ready at all times to go either way. Cause once the move went up, I had to quickly get on board. I saw 1398 break out, but missed back test. Got in on the first pull back.

 

Good analysis.

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Also (fyi while on the subject of the precise meaning of words) .. It is imperative to understand there are real penalties associated with threatening battery.

 

I don't think you could find someone to litigate Steve on battery charges for his suggesting that you are setting yourself up to be batted around like a game of "whack a mole".

 

If you really feel like he is slapping you, then slap him back.

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As far as the setup, in my experience it is the "setup" that losing traders are most interested in....believing that it is the only thing they need to find success (it may be that you are a member of that club)..

 

You are correct on this part. I think the setup depends on the trader personality and what fits their thinking.

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MightyMouse, .. professional qualifications determine who can offer an opinion as fact or provide expert testimony. Otherwise only the facts are considered regardless of conscious or unconscious intent. Was there a written threat of physical violence? Did steve46 threaten bodily injury (with a bat)?

 

18 U.S.C. 875© .. tis a Federal Crime, punishable by 5 yrs in prison, to transmit in interstate communications,

any threat to injure another person.

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Algorithms are precisely defined setups. Theres never a question whether an algorithm is present (or not present). The uncertainty you are conveying (where thinking enters the equation) is characteristic of discretionary (or loosely defined vague and uncertain) requirements. Not algorithmic patterns.

 

I don't know about battery charges, but "whack a mole" was certainly a very rude thing to say . . .

 

What you say about algorithms is perfectly true. The algorithmic trader operates using a clearly defined algorithm. But surely it’s not true that you or I would necessarily need to know the definition of algorithms to profit from the market behaviour they produce?

 

Every second HFTs zip in and out of the market and do something – they make trading decisions that almost certainly have nothing to do with market direction (pure arb, stat arb, basket arb, volatility arb, latency arb, etc). What is the net result of this kind of direction-divorced sub-second activity on direction within, say, a five minute chart? Chaos. The result is random noise. The five minute chart becomes very similar to a tossed coin . . . ‘how many heads in a row?’ becomes ‘how many down-closes in a row?’*

 

I know nothing about the “clear definition” of these algorithms, but I know their net effect on market behaviour, and I can begin to imagine ways to trade this behaviour.

 

In other words, I for one couldn’t care less whether Steve46 knows the precise definition of the algorithm(s) (or whatever) that produce a market pattern, so long as he can provide sufficient detail to identify and trade it.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

* In the last ten years there have been 82 instances of 4 consecutive down closing days in the ES. Of those, 51 were then followed by up-closing days – that’s 62%. Glance at the last four weeks of trading on a 5 minute chart and 66% of 4 consecutive down closing bars have resolved themselves with an up closing bar.

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It's relatively simple for a coder to see algos. Non-discretionary traders that think like robots but don't code might see repetitive bits but they rarely if ever talk.

 

The vocalist embrace discretion and lump all hindsight into the same profitable setup.

 

It's unnecessary to understand unknowns from someone elses pov.

but you must clearly define AND OWN .. specific rules that mimic the unknown rules.

Edited by onesmith

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...

 

I'll repeat what I said before - a market is always reverting to some mean or another (in whatever timeframe). The only time that there is an exception to this rule is when a market ticks to a new all-time high. [1]

 

You can prove this to yourself with a price chart. Select the a random closing price on any chart in any timeframe. Now add a moving average. If you adjust the lookback period, you will always be able to find a moving average towards which your selected closing price was moving. [2]

 

....

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

1 - What about before it ticks to an all time high/low? Or, by my understanding of your statement, between the last high and the old all time high? If it had been trending up for 3 weeks before making the new high, then was it still mean reverting during those 3 weeks?

 

2. Thats just a complicated way of saying the market moves up and down.

 

Markets may have been more mean reverting 10-20 years ago before the information explosion, but these days ideas of value (mean) are changing more quickly, with different time frames considering different mean values. You may think the mean is at x. Mathematically, on your time frame, you may be correct. However if the herd disagrees and thinks it's at y (for them), you are probably toast.

 

How does mean reversion therefore help one make money?

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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