[Predictor]

I thought I'd add some color since last touching this topic. I have some of the top ranked public ES systems, and I also monitor the best ES traders that I can find. What I've found is that excellent ES day traders/systems will average around $30 per contract after costs. Anywhere from $10 to $40 per contract is typical. The more one trades then the lower this number tends to go. I have some day trading systems that trade infrequently that can do much more.

It is easy to extrapolate and estimate the number of contracts required that one must trade to do the claims they make. At 5k per month (and they had some months showing more then that), then you need to trade roughly 250 contracts/month or about 12 contracts per day.

Also, I've monitored trading competitions where we know the traders are both professional and taking more risk then one would in a normal account and returns over 4x-6x are excellent and top of field. They were showing returns of 24x!!

Realistically, this means that an excellent trader in a best case scenario might do 30k on a 5k account over a year. This is an excellent return but a far cry from the 24x returns they claim. More over, such a return could easily be strong enough to win a trading competition. Think also, even at "only" 100% return over about 5-8 years it is possible to take a 10k account to over a million dollars!

I believe that it is possible to make a lot in futures market if one is very skilled and perhaps doesn't get too unlucky. It is certainly possible to make a whole lot over an intermediate time frame.

But 24x in one year, I have not seen anyone do this. The only way possible would be to trade 24/7 but again with 5k then the overnight session wouldn't be an option. I admit it seems like it shouldn't be that difficult but all the data suggest otherwise. Even risking 15% to 20% of the account per day, I think it would be difficult to hit those numbers.

I'll grant it is conceivably possible but great claims require great proof. I certainly don't believe they are doing that.

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Curtis
themarketpredictor.com

[slick60]

I don't know if this is the right thread to post this chart in or not. I wonder if it would help anybody to know what the probable direction of the market to be on when they are trading. OR is it for naught anyway as everyone is only after $50.00 at a time.

snap of the daily ES chart
2012-01-13_1152 - slick60's library


slick 60