[SIUYA]

I dont believe in prediction.....but I do believe in anticipation.

However, context is king, and this is key if you want to make a prediction. eg; trade with the trend, look for moves that seem to break the current trend and THEN reverse....these usually go the hardest in my book as they catch people.

[Tradewinds]

Originally Posted by SIUYA »

if you want to make a prediction. eg; trade with the trend, look for moves that seem to break the current trend and THEN reverse....these usually go the hardest in my book as they catch people.

I know the price pattern that you are talking about. I would call this a retracement. It originally looks like a reversal, but it isn't. But I am looking for something more in depth than what you are telling me. At the very least, I'm looking for price levels that break or fail to break. Even on a retracement, there are price levels and price behavior that succeed or fail, are weak or strong.

If I try to catch a reversal, right at it's extreme, I'm immediately looking for a stronger move in the reversal direction. If that doesn't happen on the very first close in the reversal direction, then I just exit, or reverse back.

[ilazarte]

Prediction? Forget it.
Should you take profit? Wrong question.

It sounds like you are in serious need of a trading plan.
1. Prediction is basically impossible - even trading systems that focus on prediction alter them after them after the fact because its so frequently wrong - looking at you Eliott Wave... Anyone that deals in predictions is going to get destroyed in the stock market - the most damaging form of this would be intraday trading. In general, your predictions will be low accuracy, and executing more trades regularly will compound those mistakes and blow out the account.

2. The question of whether or not you should take profit depends on your money management strategy/trading strategy. Are you high accuracy low gain per trade kinda guy, or a low accuracy high gain once in a while? There's no way you will be high accuracy / high gain per trade or else you would be a zillionaire already and this thread would be irrelevant. You have to figure out which type of money manager you are, and then work from there as to the how much profit is enough to take it from.

[Tradewinds]

Originally Posted by ilazarte »

Are you high accuracy low gain per trade kinda guy, or a low accuracy high gain once in a while?

I would never trade a low accuracy strategy. And my gains are low. My strategy accuracy is good. It is getting better all the time.

[Tradewinds]

Originally Posted by ilazarte »

Prediction? Forget it.

I think that it is possible to predict price action. If traders are not predicting price action, then what are they doing? Just entering orders at random? No. Unless a trader is truly entering an order absolutely, totally randomly, then they are making a prediction. There isn't any real difference between prediction and anticipation.

[Tradewinds]

Originally Posted by ilazarte »

Should you take profit? Wrong question.

. . . . . .

2. The question of whether or not you should take profit depends on your money management strategy/trading strategy. Are you high accuracy low gain per trade kinda guy, or a low accuracy high gain once in a while? There's no way you will be high accuracy / high gain per trade or else you would be a zillionaire already and this thread would be irrelevant. You have to figure out which type of money manager you are, and then work from there as to the how much profit is enough to take it from.

I take profit when the market decides to stop moving in my favor. It has nothing to do with whether I'm trying to make low gain or high gain. The market decides what to give me. The market decides when I'm going to take profit or not. I take what the market gives me. I don't try to tell the market how much profit I want, or where I think it should go.

[phantom]

RE: signs of impending price surge

I trade consolidation breakouts in trending markets. The best breakouts occur after the market has broken out against the trend and then reversed through the consolidation range and broken out in the direction of the trend. (False breakout > reversal).

Lots of players get trapped in these situations and must liquidate their positions when the market reverses. This oftentimes leads to price surges/no pause continuation moves.

Furthermore, the JY contract is prone to 2-3 day channels that, upon breaking out, lead to amazing moves. The longer the channel, the bigger the follow-through after the breakout.

See for yourself if what I am saying is true.


Luv,
Phantom