[swansjr]

Day 33
Tuesday, January 26, 2010

P&L: $-180 on 2 trades.



Today I got chopped up. The bears and bulls were fighting hard all morning and if you have tight stops, like I do, you'll get your nose bloodied.

Live_Trade_2010-01-26.swf

[swansjr]

Day 34
Wednesday, January 27, 2010

P&L: $110 on 1 trade.



The market was moving up early in the morning right into a major bear trendline. Actually, there were two bear trendlines and at one point price was wedged between them. Ultimately it failed to break-out above the higher trendline and collapsed below both. I shorted and set a target for the vWap which was near by. Since price has been choppy I did not want to take any more chances of having price move in my favor only to snap back and take me out. Indeed, price was choppy near the trendlines as bulls and bears battled for dominance. Being and FOMC day, price can also be strange.

I took some heat but my target was hit. However, price would continue to move cleanly down another 30 ticks or so, right into another support level. I wish I held on. But, I did the right thing. If you are new to trading watch how price bounces of trendlines that are days old right down to a previous support level. It's really amazing how often price ping-pongs off trendlines and support/resistance levels.

The EC seems poised to go lower and I'll need to take advantage of those trending days to rake in some cash to make my first month green.Actually, it's green now but it's a very light shade of green.

Live_Trade_2010-01-27_1.swf
Live_Trade_2010-01-27_2.swf

[swansjr]

Day 35
Thursday, January 28, 2010

P&L: $-180 on 2 trades.



Today I traded like an idiot. I was careless and emotional. I have now wiped out my gains for the month. I'm back to where I started January 1st. I'm very upset with myself for not taking the time to carefully observe what's going on. A misplaced trendline can cause all kinds of havoc as you will most likely misread the market. That's what I did today. I was trying to go long when waiting for a proper short would have been the correct move. Even after reviewing the video myself today I'm not sure why I was going long. I give an excuse in the video but I'm wondering, what was I thinking?

Then my emotions ran wild and I feel for the classic scam when trading the markets: I chased the market and entered emotionally! Frustrated at my misread of the market I got emotional as the market moved lower after taking me out. I jumped in! You would not believe what happened. I shorted at the very lowest tick! Yep, the market would then reverse to take out my newly initated short. It would then roll over to new lows. We all know what that feels like. I stormed away from the computer knowing I was only going to hurt myself if I was to continue to trade. I was done for the day. Maybe for the week.

It has been a while since I traded so recklessly. I've had some decent runs over the past few months and this breakdown is so typical of a new trader. I have had at least 3-4 complete breakdowns over the past year or so. I would like to think the days between such events are growing.

At first I did not even wish to post the video or my results, but here they are. I provide more detail and the end of video 2 where I talk about what I did wrong. Tomorrow is the last day of the month. Can I make it a profitable month?

Live_Trade_2010-01-28.swf
Live_Trade_2010-01-28_2.swf

[swansjr]

Day 36
Tuesday, February 2, 2010

P&L: $-120 on 1 trades.

No trades on Monday or last Friday.

The market is moving back into a Choppy type action as it digests the sweeping down move last week. The overall trend for the second strait day is a slow grind up. Candles contain many long tails. Price action is punctuated by deep pullbacks and strong rallies that fake-out many traders. I tried to go long today but was stopped out. The market would then continue without me. I'm still really disliking my performance. It would not be so bad except I did not take advantage of last weeks great trending market. My game was off and now the market is luke warm. I'm in a drawdown period and it's demoralizing. Mother market is testing my resolve.

Live_Trading_2010-02-02_1.swf
Live_Trade_2010-02-02_2.swf

[swansjr]

January Performance

Gross: $187.50.
Net:$-6.14

Here is the trading performance since I started this thread.




Here is the equity curve. At least it's positive.



The more I trade the more I understand the different feel or behavior of the market. I need to exploit those winners and stay out of the market when it's not my kind of dance. You need to exploit your trading when the market is favorable to your style and back off when it's not. I still think I'm probably trading a little too much. I few well placed trades in one week is all you need.

The other option is to modify my trading slightly during these choppy times. For example, scalping when price bounces off of trendlines, resistance, support and the vwap. It appears to do this very regularly. I would simply need to change my entry rule by using a limit order at the support or resistance level. In other words, fade the move for 5-7 ticks.

[swansjr]

Day 37
Thursday, February 4, 2010

P&L: $-115 on 1 trades.

I said I was in a drawdown, right? Yes, another losing day with one trade. However, what makes today's losing trade kind of interesting is I noticed a formation on the 60 minute chart last night before going to bed. It was a classic trendline break and re-test of the lows. So, this morning I decided to play it on the 5-minute chart. I show this setup in more detail the video below.

I've noticed on past trades that sometimes a great setup on the 5-minute looks decent on a 15-minute or even 60-minute. An entry point on my 5-minute may even coincide with an important level on the daily chart. Some of my past trades that did work out well would have been far superior if I simply held on. The EC has been very trendy, although, not always during my hours of trading. Thus, I'm attempting to keep an eye on the larger timeframe simply to pinpoint areas where it is worth holding a contract for the long haul (hours or days) instead of placing my profit target at a near by resistance/support level. Most days simply following setups on the 5-minute is just fine but occasionally a setup on a larger timeframe will appear.

So, I had this great setup forming on the 60-minute chart. It was also clear in a 15-minute char. I waited to place a trade on the 5-minute chart. Price was right around the vwap as well and I knew things would be choppy. Well I entered and was stopped out about 45 minutes later. Price never moved much beyond 14 ticks! Talk about chop!

The stop-out did not bother me. I've been stopped out on this setup before and then would enter again a few bars later and make my money. So, this was nothing unusual. I waited for a clear long conformation. However, it never came. During this time price was in a fairly tight channel. Then the unemployment news came out and things started picking up. This is where I failed to notice and take advantage that the bears had the upper hand. Price eventually would bread down through the trading range, violating my setup, yet. I never shorted. I recognized what was going on but never imitated that short. Sure, it was late in the day and I had to get going (work) but I failed to act. Doing so I missed another day where I should have made a nice profit.

If I can't make up my losses Friday, I'll have another losing week.

Live_Trade_2010-02-04_1.swf
2010-02-04_2.swf

[swansjr]

This is painful to write, but here it goes: I'm going to be taking a break from discretionary trading and when I return I will be on the simulator. The last few days have been a nightmare for me. I've suffered some very emotional days and expensive loses.

Today I became emotional and lost $650 on far too many trades I could not walk away from my trading system and violated my daily loss of $300. I've been building to this point of failure for several days. Monday I lost $300 and last week I lost $400. That's a total of $1,350 in just a few days. My gains for the past 3 months are erased and I've started eating into my principal. I could feel myself slipping away and if I had the discipline I would have taken a break from trading and regrouped. But I pressed on and with each day my discipline slipped further into oblivion. Today was the worst.

My breakdown was all recorded and I'm far too embarrassed to post my collapse here. That's why this thread has been quiet.

This all happened before. Early last year I begin to trade with real money and for a few months I did OK, growing my equity. Then, for some reasons, I begin to revert back to an armature trader who lacks discipline and allows emotions to take over. It seems when I start out I'm very focused and disciplined but over time I lose it.

I really wanted this year to be a great year. My first week of trading in January was great and my hopes were high. Last fall I was growing my equity. But everything slowly unraveled after that first week in January. With my large loss today and my continued grinding down of my cash I have to stop trading real money.

I also must take a break. I do plan to return. My trading method is fine. It works, but it's me that has the problem. I need to work on my trader's mindset. I started futures trading in 2008 and during that year I really did not know what I was doing. I became much more serious in May of 2009. Last fall I started developing my current trading method and today, I have to work more on myself.

This is all so frustrating.

I will become a good trader! I must. I tend to beat myself up a lot and I'm trying my best now to formulate a plan of attack that will most benefit my growth. I'm seriously considering finding a trading coach. If anyone can recommend a coach that would be great.

Until next time, good luck everyone!