[swansjr]

Day 14

Two trades. Two winners.

My entries were a little sloppy today but I did take them instead of sitting on my hands waiting for the "perfect" signal. My first trade was a short as EC appeared to be trending downward. My target was hit quickly. You know you're on the right side of a strong market when your target is hit quickly! On the next opportunity I entered with a single contract with the full intent to exit this contract with runner parameters. The market quickly went through my scalp target and I held on. The downward trend looked intact on my larger timeframes and I was determined to get a few more points. Down and down the market went. Boy does that feel good! I exited when it looked like the bears were exhausted and I could not have been more spot-on on the exit. While I did not exit when price retraced to my upper Keltner band, I was pleased because I did not sell at my scalp level. Obviously I need a lot of work yet but this added some encouragement that I can do it.

This chart below shows both trades for today:



In short, I'm very please I was able to execute a runner. I saw the market was in a trending mode and I was able to take advantage of it. I did stop trading after this, but the opportunities were ripe. Today looks like one of those days where money would flow into my account if I would just keep trading. It felt easy. A period similar to this happened in April for several days, if I remember correctly. Anyway… "Let's take things slow. Let's not get greedy." were the words I said to myself. Besides, I had some non-trading obligations to take care of. I was done for the day.

Looking at the charts now I was right. Multiple signals were clearly apparent that provided great opportunity. That's ok. There will be many more days like this. In light of what I have learned over the past several weeks, I will be reviewing my rules and making slight modification to my entry and exit rules.


P&L: $370

[swansjr]

Day 15

One trade. One loser.

Quick update today. The EC market was choppy and when the unemployment news hit pre market, Wow! I tried to take a signal which was probably stupid since the market was behaving so strangely. Sometimes fundamental news does weird and wild things to market participants and it's best to step aside. Anyway, I decided to play. I was stopped out rather quickly and I called it a day.


P&L ($100)

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by swansjr »

Day 15

One trade. One loser.

Quick update today. The EC market was choppy and when the unemployment news hit pre market, Wow! I tried to take a signal which was probably stupid since the market was behaving so strangely. Sometimes fundamental news does weird and wild things to market participants and it's best to step aside. Anyway, I decided to play. I was stopped out rather quickly and I called it a day.


P&L ($100)

Good job being quick on that exit swans. I know what you were referring to and I was actually long through there but I wasn't going to mess around - it was either this worked quickly or it did not.

If you aren't already, make sure you are aware of 830am EST news that will move the EC. You don't want to be caught off guard when that news is released. In case you do forget something is going on, the dom will alert you quickly - you will all of a sudden see very few buyers/sellers (almost like everyone went home all of a sudden) and then bam, move takes place. But that 30 seconds or so of basically no buyers/sellers is a big hint that something is coming soon.

[swansjr]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

Good job being quick on that exit swans. I know what you were referring to and I was actually long through there but I wasn't going to mess around - it was either this worked quickly or it did not.

If you aren't already, make sure you are aware of 830am EST news that will move the EC. You don't want to be caught off guard when that news is released. In case you do forget something is going on, the dom will alert you quickly - you will all of a sudden see very few buyers/sellers (almost like everyone went home all of a sudden) and then bam, move takes place. But that 30 seconds or so of basically no buyers/sellers is a big hint that something is coming soon.

Ah, good point. Thanks.

[swansjr]

Week 4 Summary

Overall it was another week of substandard trading. My money management rules along with some ability in actually halting my trading activity when things are not going well is what keeps me from killing my account. While I’ve managed to make money this week, my execution is lacking. I’m often not taking trades when I get a signal, or I make dumb entries. It’s class not following the rules and/or acting emotional. I also feel I should be taking advantage of a runner more effectively. I still have to think about this aspect. Right now, I’m more worried about my entry and actually taking signals when they appear before me.

I separated my live trades from my simulated trades. The results are in the images below.

First are my trading results from my live trades:



Next are my trading results from my simulated trades:




Both the live trading and the simulated trading have about the same number of trades. But it looks like the live trading has a better overall profile. This is because of 1) the great runner I had last week and 2) A slight change to my system.

Most notably I have bumped up my target profit from 6 ticks to 8 ticks. I did this because it seemed 8 ticks was often hit just as likely after my entry. I also wanted to squeeze more profit per contract and help reduce the effects of commissions and fees.

My next adjustment to my trading setup came with the removal of the two contracts. When I opened a postion with two contracts I would keep a very tight stop because I’m trying to normalize my risk across all my trades. At times this was not very practical and I felt uncomfortable with it. Furthermore, when I was re-reading Van Tharp material I ran across his opinion that scaling out often produces poorer results when compared to a single exit method. I have done some testing of this over the year and it does seem that in many cases you will get better trading results without a scaling out rule.

That’s it for now.

[swansjr]

Revised Trading Rules:

Trading Times: 5:00am - 830am central.

Screens:
2225t long-term trend screen. 445t intermediate-trend screen and a 89t chart to pin-point entry and exit.

Position Size:
I only trade one contract per trade.

Hard Target:
First target is 8 ticks from entry.

Runner Target:
If I perceive the market as "trending" I will not exit on my Hard Target. Insead I use an opposite Keltner channel as a trailing exit.

Risk Per Trade:
The maximum to risk is 12 ticks (12 ticks * $12.50 per tick = $150). Many of the setups will risk far less per trade.

When to Stop Trading:

After two consecutive losing trades, stop trading for the day.
After two consecutive winning trades, stop trading for the day.

Maximum Day Loss:
$300.

[swansjr]

Day 16

Quick update today. Most of the EC downward trend was complete by the time I was up in the morning. Price action was against the major trend and was a little choppy. I did manage to make one trade, which I scalped for my 8 ticks. The entry and exit were fine. But opportunity was slim.

P&L: $100

[swansjr]

Day 17

Today was a miserable day as mother market pole-axed my account. My first trade was idiotic right out of the gate. I did not follow my rules at all. I took a counter trend setup that I thought was setting up. Watts does have a counter trend setup but I’ve never practiced it – so like an idiot I try it with real money. Lost that one for about 8 ticks.

OK, I can move on.

All my time frames are aligned for my next trade. I enter long on a minor pull back. My screen does not update for ½ a second or so and then wham! About 10 bars are painted instantly and I’m taken out with about a massive 10 ticks of slippage. Price marches on in my original direction.

This really sucks. That last trade cost be big time erasing a lot of gain. I feel beaten down and cheated. I’m still positive since starting this with my real money so that’s one good thing. Of course I have a lot of time on my side. I’ll be back to do it again – but following my rules.

P&L: ($330)