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Originally Posted by cunparis » I figured I'm trading 1 contract so if someone is trading 25 they must know more than I. After studying the Time & Sales window I think that's true for the majority but not for all of them.  |
Maybe you can use 25+ sized ticks well (on ES I assume), and maybe not. All I can say is that there is no shortage of 200+ sized ticks, and 25 contracts are obviously NOTHING to the bigger players. In other words, if you see lots of 25 contract market sales and you think "well, they know more than I do so I should sell too"... then you are blatantly in error from what I can tell. Traders who trade in the 1000's could frankly be doing just about anything in 25 contract increments. To put it another way, I don't think those trades carry much information, in an information-theory sense. It's just noise on your signal.
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Originally Posted by cunparis » My only "issue" is the lag caused by the MACD. From what I see on a tick chart, it follows price pretty closely but lags behind it. |
I know I sound like a broken record, but no one seems to hear me when I say: the main function of the indicator is to bring out times when large traders are in a big enough hurry to show their hands with large market orders. A secondary use of the indicator is to show that the small orders tend to be against the direction of the eventual move. All of the other stuff people want to believe they can see might be in there, but is probably better shown by another (possibly related) indicator.
There are plenty of times every day when, if you understand this, the indicator can help you find high-quality entry points. To find them, you have to think about what the line means, compared to what price means. I pointed out one very simple strategy a few posts ago against the macd version on a 610-tick chart posted here. There are other tradable ideas, and in some conditions the line will turn ahead of the move, sure enough. But it's not a magic line that always leads the market. If you are looking for that, you will have "issues" with every indicator you find out there.
I know I probably sound harsh, and I don't claim to know everything about how to use the indicator, but I do wish people would start from what the indicator means, and not blindly look for divergences or leading action or whatever. I would say the same thing about any indicator.