[Dinerotrader]

Wow, my first experience with a limit day. I wish I had kept my shorts from yesterday.
I can't imagine the feeling of those stuck on the long side of todays move. I am very curious to see how the movement is tomorrow.

[Dinerotrader]

Was everyone who trades corn waiting for that forecast to come out or does the USDA just come out with that forecasts whenever the want? I'd like to be prepared if forecasts are scheduled to come out on the grains. Anyone know about this?

[ochie]

One source is the USDA Crop Report Page.

[Dinerotrader]

Originally Posted by ochie »

One source is the USDA Crop Report Page.

Thanks for the link. I am still trying to figure out which report it was that had the information which caused the huge drop.

I just want to make sure I am aware of what reports have the potential to cause significant moves in the grains so that I can be aware of the days that they are released.

[ochie]

Yep, I hear you. Not all that clear. I would look for "Grain Stocks" listed here at 8:30. If I open the txt doc (there's also a pdf and zip) I see:

Corn Stocks Up 9 Percent from December 2008
Soybean Stocks Up 3 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 24 Percent

I guess Corn Stocks up 9 Percent (greater supply) caused the selloff?

[DugDug]

Yep - the farmers have been too successful, the analysts expectations too low. Watch all the reports for those people who knew it would happen. I hope they put their money where their mouth is.

It cost me a little (a lot ) as I had been building a position - buying and selling and staying long, based on the price action which is what I follow more than the fundamentals.
I am now out, and looking to see what happens now. (it can continue to plummet - look at Oct 08, Jul 09)
Would I do it again - yes. For the moves I was hoping for - and have received in other instruments.
It just shows the importance of not having a position, that while it hurts (doesnt every loss?) it does not mean you are ruined.....or even so badly hurt that its tough to recover.
Also shows the importance of correlation and portfolio concentration - look at wheat, rice, soybeans etc; (maybe not as relevant for day traders here, but still important to keep in mind for those who are not)

[Sammytrader]

i would be a buyer in the corn soon.

[Dinerotrader]

Originally Posted by Sammytrader »

i would be a buyer in the corn soon.

Why? Chart? Analysis?