[brownsfan019]

I'm sure I've mentioned this here before, but the hardest part for me as a trader is seeing a trade move substantially in your favor AFTER you've already exited. Today on the ZN was a great example. I literally shorted near the HOD, exited for my standard profit and then proceeded to watch it plummet.

I would prefer to not turn this into a 'that's the game' philosophical discussion, but rather a discussion on how you measure the strength of a move once you are in a trade (if you do at all). Just curious to hear what others might be watching when in a trade to see if it's time to exit the trade or maintain a position.

Ideas I've tried/used/contemplated previously but was not confident in the results at the time:

• Indicators that attempt to measure strength, velocity, etc.
• Volume
• Pit noise

The ideal situation of course being when you can recognize when to be nimble and exit trades based on your predefined parameters or when you can just let it run for a bit more than normal.

Also - I won't chastise anyone if they discuss a favorite indicator of theirs. I know it's taboo around here to discuss the evil, after-the-fact indicators, but you are safe here.

[Tams]

BF surrendering to indicators ??? my, the World must be changing.


Here's a little "indicator" that might help:

set the look back to 2 bars,
if the price never closed beyond the 2 bars, there is really no reason to exit.
(of course you have to tune to a resolution that does not give you the noise,
or increase the "look back" so that you don't get taken out by a spike)

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ound-6084.html




Hope the idea helps

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ound-6084.html

[throughthemud]

I use elliott wave analysis. it helps you determine the trend on every time scale and gives you price targets for reversals. I trade on 15min, 1hr, 4hr and daily charts. The scale at which the move main move is occurring greatly determines its length. The guidelines of the wave principle are also excellent help. it's all a matter of trading based on what is most likely to occur.

[ant]

Once in a trade, I monitor for continuation by using profile shape, volume, market confidence/tempo, and ability (i.e., ease or difficulty) of market to trade through support/resistance levels. I don't exit at pre-defined point profit levels. I gauge the odds of continuation and lighten up or exit completely if the odds decrease significantly based on what I look at. My exits usually coincide, but not always, with key reference areas.

[throughthemud]

hey ant,

could you be more specific about some of the ways you determine market tempo and the ease of the market the break a resistance/support?

thanks

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by Tams »

BF surrendering to indicators ??? my, the World must be changing.


Here's a little "indicator" that might help:

set the look back to 2 bars,
if the price never closed beyond the 2 bars, there is really no reason to exit.
(of course you have to tune to a resolution that does not give you the noise,
or increase the "look back" so that you don't get taken out by a spike)

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ound-6084.html




Hope the idea helps

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ound-6084.html

Tams - just looking for some ideas, maybe something will spark an idea on my end. I'm not averse to indicators, but prefer to have 'cleaner' charts. To each his own though.

Originally Posted by ant »

Once in a trade, I monitor for continuation by using profile shape, volume, market confidence/tempo, and ability (i.e., ease or difficulty) of market to trade through support/resistance levels. I don't exit at pre-defined point profit levels. I gauge the odds of continuation and lighten up or exit completely if the odds decrease significantly based on what I look at. My exits usually coincide, but not always, with key reference areas.

Interesting ant - pictures are worth a thousand words!

[ochie]

BF,
I trade treasuries so I'm showing what I saw on the 5yr at the time. This is from an MP perspective but the point I'm showing is the increasing separation of price from the developing low value area which shows continuation. Its possible that this kind of indication may be simulated by a MA of some value.

[ant]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

Interesting ant - pictures are worth a thousand words!

See attachments for ES trade examples for today (9/16) and monitoring for continuation based on profile shape and volume. An elongated profile and higher volume indicates odds of upward continuation.




EDIT: One other thing about how I monitor for continuation. I also look at market structure. For example, the fact that a market is one-timeframing higher will help keep me in a trade longer. Also, if a market is moving higher like today, and we get a poor high (i.e., no selling tail), that would also keep me in the trade longer because my expectation would be for the high to be taken out.