[thalestrader]

Here is what I consider to be a very real gap ... others would say that the gap does not exist and you can just imagine it is not there.

Here is how I would trade this: Sell stop a tick below first five minute low (902.75), with a stop loss above the high of the first five minutes (or the HOD is price makes a higher high prior to making a lower low).

I would be watchful at the blue arrow lines for signs that price was reversing, or to add to the postion on a break.

Will it be a profitable trade? I do not know. But I have an entry, I have a stop loss, and I have potential profit targets. Anyone can see these without needing to learn anything terribly esoteric.

If the gap does not begin to fill within the first 15 -20 minutes of trading, I anticipate (anticipate, not predict) that it will not fill today, and that price will close in the direction of the gap, and that there is a high liklihood of a trend day down whereby the market opens at or near its high and closes at or near its low.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I would be watchful at the blue arrow lines for signs that price was reversing, or to add to the postion on a break.

So far trend down is in effect, but price is hanging around that 901 level (first blue arrow). So currently short, but watchful for a reversal. I would trade this by watching for what happens should price bounce as high as 904 (1.25 ponts above entry) and be willing to exit and then re-enter short if warranted. Otherwise, I am holding short.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

So far trend down is in effect, but price is hanging around that 901 level (first blue arrow). So currently short, but watchful for a reversal. I would trade this by watching for what happens should price bounce as high as 904 (1.25 ponts above entry) and be willing to exit and then re-enter short if warranted. Otherwise, I am holding short.

With the lower low (albeit only slightly lower), and price having dropped 5.25 points from entry, there is no reason for this to be any worse than a breakeven trade.

Someone once said, (and I think it was Victor Sperandeo) that "If you don't bet, you can't win; and if you lose all yours chips, you can't bet."

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

With the lower low (albeit only slightly lower), and price having dropped 5.25 points from entry, there is no reason for this to be any worse than a breakeven trade.

Not much progress lately - tapped 897.25 as five minute low twice now, so 5.5 points max from entry. I will take some off at 900.25 and hold the rest with a BE stop

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Not much progress lately - tapped 897.25 as five minute low twice now, so 5.5 points max from entry. I will take some off at 900.25 and hold the rest with a BE stop

Stop on 1/2 is 900.25, and stop on second 1/2 is 904: This will net .75 points/contract traded less commish if both stops are taken out.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Stop on 1/2 is 900.25, and stop on second 1/2 is 904: This will net .75 points/contract traded less commish if both stops are taken out.

+2.5 points closed on half position

stop at -1.25 points on half position

[thalestrader]

If the rally attempt fizzles out and we get a retest of the lows, 896.25-896.75 would be an area to wacth for a potenital double bottom. If price goes there, I'd be watching this for clues as to managing my existing short position, and not to try to pick a botom from which to go long.

I still anticipate that the gap does not get filled today (though it might) and that the market will close near the price lows of the day (though it might close at its high).

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

So this thread will focus (initially at least) on discussing volume and whether or not it is important in your trading work.

I think there's 2 simple sides people can take here:

1) Volume is important and can play a huge role in their analysis

2) Volume is unimportant and/or just another useless indicator

Alright, you probably guessed I am a little biased here, but allow me to explain how I view volume in intraday trading.

In a nutshell, volume can be a tricky thing when watching intraday

As I have not been showing volume at all, it might be assumed that I would fall under the second option above, along with Brownie. However, I do believe that volume, especially on daily, weekly, and monthly analysis of stock price movements, can be very useful, and provide important information.

I have not found it to be useful for intraday day trading.

Here is the 5 minute ES with volume. I was hoping that at some point this morning one of the Volumiati would appear and share his or her views on how to trade the ES today based upon volume analysis rather than price action. I'd really rather see and hear the analysis in real time as the action unfolds. Afterall, anyone can mark up a dead chart after the fact and look like a genius.