[johnjohn1hew]

Originally Posted by Tams »

if you can describe it, you can quantify it.

if you cannot quantify a concept, your concept is either non-scientific, or incomplete.

Mr. Tams, quantify it for me. Please, i am dying for this formula. If you say this then you must be saying that Wyckoff's methodology (which we all know works) is incomplete or non-scientific, as he never gave a quantitative way of using his method. His method was based on the underlying forces, of which have nothing to do with formulas and everything to do with mental reasoning.

[Tams]

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

Mr. Tams, quantify it for me. Please, i am dying for this formula. If you say this then you must be saying that Wyckoff's methodology (which we all know works) is incomplete or non-scientific, as he never gave a quantitative way of using his method. His method was based on the underlying forces, of which have nothing to do with formulas and everything to do with mental reasoning.

You are extrapolating to a branch that is neither my intention, nor the spirit of this thread. I will let you continue in your own expedition.

[JBWTrader]

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

No formula can predict the next movement in price. Price is random and takes reasoning skills to decipher. Skills that cannot be mimicked by a forumla. It is absolutely foolhardy to assume that anyone holds such insight to be able to predict the next movements of a collective human mind 100% of the time.

For you and me John we may get close to 30-65% of getting the direction right. For the more sophisticated and well funded Algos/Bots it is a much higher %. I agree with you no one trader will get close to predicting the Price movement. What I am getting at is that there are well funded drivers of the market who dont need to know where price is going but have the power to do so...their traces are found in Volume and price and other data approximations. No one formulae can track these guys as they have access to many at any moment.

Best
John

[johnjohn1hew]

Originally Posted by Tams »

You are extrapolating to a branch that is neither my intention, nor the spirit of this thread. I will let you continue in your own expedition.

A sound theory is a theory that can be defended. If you cannot defend a theory, then you have no place in pushing it. You stated that human reasoning can be formulated, and i want to see this. Otherwise i have to stick with my belief that quantifying human reasoning is impossible. I do not acknowledge those who want to appear smart, i acknowledge those who can be smart and can convince the opposition without feeling offended and just throwing in the towel. In no way will i ever alow a disagreement to become personal.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

i have to stick with my belief that quantifying human reasoning is impossible.

I share your opinion.

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

I do not acknowledge those who want to appear smart, i acknowledge those who can be smart and can convince the opposition without feeling offended and just throwing in the towel.

People do nonetheless behave in repeatable though of course not always predictable patterns, especially when an agenda is at stake.

First they put you on ignore, then they report your posts, and only then do they throw in the towel.

An open and free discussion, but apparently some are permitted to be more open and free than others.

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by rcossey73 »

So you have 1 trader who thinks the price is going up and he buys up 1000 contracts. On the other side you have 1000 traders who think the market is going down and they each sell 1 contract. What exactly is that 1000 volume telling me to do?

Well this is not trading advice but it is saying enter against the prevailing trend. Particularly if it is an area that you might anticipate a turn (S/R). I have not talked about volume @ bid and volume @ ask or trade intensity (well not in this thread, there are other threads that discuss those metrics). What I presented is simply looking at volume peaks on a fast chart.

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

BF - post a few charts if you get chance. I can't even fathom having a 15 sec chart up! lol

There are a few earlier in the thread. I have a couple of nice failures from the end of last week, the reason they are nice is because it looked like support had already 'gone'. Been a bit busy last few days.

[BlowFish]

Here is a failure despite that it gave a bounce that would have alowed a scratch or small loss depending on how one was to manage it. (even a profitable scalp). The blue line was towards the bottom end of support and had been tested a few time already. It looked like a fail to me (support failing despite the volume peak).