07-23-2009, 05:47 PM
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#469 |
Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: USA Thanks: 16
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| Re: Futures I Trade Show & Brooks Book Difficult morning for me. Of course in hindsight it's obvious, just jump in after the break of the opening bar high. Problems were many: - the gap was small, only 1.50 pts, and to use Al Brooks' term the market was anything but "overdone"
- there was over 2 hrs of congestion in that general area from the previous afternoon, and as Al said on pg.305 regarding one of his examples where the market gapped down huge (which is theoretically better), formed an opening bear-trend bar, and yet he didn't short below it: "A short based on the bear trend bar would be risky, since it is in the area of the trading range of the final hour of the day before."
- a buy above the opening bar with a stop below it would've meant a 2.75pt stop if hit. While not excessive that's a bit steeper than I like to risk, especially with the other problems of the trade listed above
- on the 9:50 bar the market stalled, formed a bear-trend bar (or largish-bodied doji) and I considered a buy above it. But to that point there had been no big trend bars clearly pointing the way, and serious resistance was right overhead. Entry would've been 955.50 and yesterday's high was 956.75.
- nice pullback at 10:20/10:25 and in hindsight should've bought above the 10:25 bar. But in realtime I didn't because we had just completed 3 clear legs up and I didn't want to bet on a 4th leg.
- another nice pullback at 10:40-10:50 which, in hindsight, I should've bought above the 10:50 bar. But this time I would've been betting on a 5th leg. Obviously it worked. Also the 6th leg worked too. Go figure.
I did play the 1st pullback to the EMA, but unlike the overwhelming majority of trend days that close at/near their high this one sold off and I was lucky to make 5 ticks.
BTW, bakrob99, thanks for the tip re: MM being Money Management. Never heard that one before. Have, of course, heard of break-even (BE) stops, and trailing stops, but never money management stops! Good to know. |
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