[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by szubaark »

Big moves usually happen with no clear setups.. nature of the Beast

My experience leads me to hold a contrary opinion: Price nearly always telegraphs where it is likely heading, regardless of the extent of that move.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

My experience leads me to hold a contrary opinion: Price nearly always telegraphs where it is likely heading, regardless of the extent of that move.

Best Wishes,

Thales

True. Resistance on the ES this morning was at 891-2. Entry was at or about 890. After that, it was a simple matter of following the trend to 882. And only one trade.

Good luck tomorrow.

[mbfromla]

This is the chart analyzed by me after the market close. Of course it's difficult to spot all these trades in real time, but i'm working on it. In the chat room we spotted a few of them, but missed some as well.


If you have any comments or suggestions, please email me job858@yahoo.com
A few of us are discussing dialy trades in a chat room here called Pure PA

[Dinerotrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

My experience leads me to hold a contrary opinion: Price nearly always telegraphs where it is likely heading, regardless of the extent of that move.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Thalestrader-
Could you please elaborate on what you mean exactly by "telegraphs". Chart mark up of your ES trade would be even better if you could show how you see/interpret the movement.
Thanks.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by imorgan »

Thalestrader-
Could you please elaborate on what you mean exactly by "telegraphs". Chart mark up of your ES trade would be even better if you could show how you see/interpret the movement.
Thanks.

I think that if you look at the ES chart, you'll see it is sufficiently marked to see what I was seeing: Price gapped open lower, rallied back to resistance (as DB points out in his post). From there, price declined back to the LOD, ultimately making a choppy push to a lower low that reversed relatively quickly to trade back above the first 5 minute low. Price formed a line, from which it broke to the upside, and a logical profit target was resistance at 892-894.

Basically, all I meant was that price shows where there is resistance and where there is support. If a rally fails at resistance, you can expect a test of the nearest support. If a decline fails to push lower at support, you can expect a rally to test the nearest resistance. I do not really know if a particular resistance or support will hold or break. But price does show you where these points are, and when price gets there, the market will make a decision. I do know that much. Since I know that there are only two possible outcomes, I can be ready for either, and what's more: price already has placed a road map before us telling us what to expect depending upon which of the two outcomes come to pass.

Here is another example on the current 15 minute EURUSD: If EURUSD trades below the back line, price will have printed a High, a low, a lower high and a lower low. I would sell a break of that line. If price breaks and holds below that black line, I'd expect it to reach at least the first blue line. Will it? Maybe. Maybe not. I do not know. But, I would expect it to reach that line. If it breaks and holds below that blue line, I'd expect price to reach the next blue line, and so on.

Will the EURUSD break that low? I do not know. That black line was a minor support level, and therefore, it may have marked the end of a rather shallow pullback and the rally in the EURUSD may be set to resume to retest and possibly take out today's high.

If it does break below that line, will it at least reach the first profit target? Probably, but maybe not.

Does price always do what it has led me to believe it is about to do?

No.

That is why I always trade with a hard stop in the market against my position.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[szubaark]

"Here is another example on the current 15 minute EURUSD: If EURUSD trades below the back line, price will have printed a High, a low, a lower high and a lower low. I would sell a break of that line. If price breaks and holds below that black line, I'd expect it to reach at least the first blue line. Will it? Maybe. Maybe not. I do not know. But, I would expect it to reach that line. If it breaks and holds below that blue line, I'd expect price to reach the next blue line, and so on."

What do you consider "break" and what "holds"? Do we have to Close below the black line for it to break? or just Poke through it? Price doesnt just Break S/R. It will usually do fakeouts back and forth LOL, especially low Volatility summer days

[forrestang]

Argh I hate exits. I think all trades taken today were reasonable, but still down on the day.

EXITS.....the hardest part about trading.

First trade I let myself get taken out waaaaay too soon after having 3 points on the table for 2 tics.

Second Trade I think was also a good one, just stopped.

Third Trade, I think was also a sound trade as it was a WITH TREND Double Top Bear Flag, came within 1 tick of 2 point target.

Note: All 3 trades were good for at least 1 point, which would have been a good day.

Just the way it works out at times it seems.....no reason to be discouraged

[Mr_black]

Nice scalp on micro trend line FBO...+17 pips .... my stop was set for -11...