[ACS]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

Why not call it a day after 3 losses in a row? or whatever number you like.
I call it GOING NUTS when I have one failure after another but i still hope that the the next one IS THE ONE.
There are many good days with clear setups that materialize.
On days that I get whacked time after time, I look back at those days and I realize that i was revenge/hope trading and that is a NO NO.

I have to agree with Gabe. With 1 point wins and 2 point stops (and you do have to give 2 points for the stop) the math is brutal. It takes 3 wins to take you into the black after one loser (unless you are able to trade multiple contracts and get some bigger swing profits) therefore 2 losses are enough to trigger my daily stop. The odds of getting 5 or 6 consecutive wins after 2 losers is not something I want to risk. Discipline!

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by szubaark »

6/26

Today is a good example that you need more then just seups to be Profitible.

We had 7pt Range. Below the EMA we had good seups for Double Bottom Bullflag H2&H3's and EMA GAP. THEY ALL WERE FAILURES. Entry candles were taken out immediately following Entry. Average Stop -2. Also If you Reversed for Reversal Failure Failure you would be also Stopped on next candle.
I took 7 Stops in a row for Over -10 Points (1 contract) Day like today could easily wipe out all your Weeks (months) Profits.
And please dont say YOU WERE TRADING Barbwire, because we had good momentum Since OPen, 2 Legs down. You anticipate most bardwire around lunch or around EMA, Price was well below the EMA (momentum was strong)

I am not sure I should post this.....trying to be constructive but not sure there is anything here of help really. it was a tough period for a scalper that's for sure. Here goes anyway.......

Easy to sit here with the benefit of hindsight and find reasons why there where failures. Still...... I don't really think there was good momentum off the open, the whole area was kind of 'rangy'. Tim Morge calls this sort of action rolling chop, apt enough description. We are moving down but there is a lot of 'backing and filling'.

If the trendline that you drew was the 'boss' not looking at longs until its broken and the extreme re-tested keeps you safer, well a bit safer. The troublesome area was a tight range.....if the market is out of phase with your 5 min bars you get bars going red green red etc. rather than a string of doji's not really possible to know that until it had developed somewhat of course. (I know, I know you said don't mention barbed wire!)

Thinking about what potential is in the trade might help, is there a good couple of points to the last SH SL? Assuming that is the likely place that price will go next.

To be honest I'm glad I wasn't trading that.

[Kiwi]

Good point Blowfish,

Sometimes you just have a day that doesn't suit your strategy. Today, by my definition of trend HSI had 9 trends ... 9 ... and you can guess that when I say my strategy is a little like Brooks and I only do the trend trades it was a tough day.

On the other hand Midknight is (from my definition of trend) mainly a countertrend trader and he had a fantastic day today.

So its not that you need more than setups ... you just have to accept that some days won't suit some setups. Such is life. Tomorrow is another day.

[forrestang]

Today was an awesome day for learning. I feel as though I learned a ton from trading today. I actually wound up slightly in the red, but that was mainly due to stupidity. I knew what had to be done but got impatient into placing orders.

The chart should be self explanatory.

But there was strong reversal in the morning. Not sure how to catch these without some reversal pattern, at the very least a DBBF? Then into nice sideways action. When this happens, we want to fade the range.

In particular we want to fine SMALL bars occuring near the extremes of the range. When we see a fbo of some sort, we can then relax and expect two legs toward the opposite side of the range which happened several times, as opposite traders who entered the fbo will now be trapped, and their covering will help our position. All other fades were generally quick scalps it would seem.

On another note, on Wednesday, I will be in the "Pure_PA" chat room if anyone else is capable of dealing with the distractions of the chat room.

Forrest

[szubaark]

I hope you realize that most of these FBO were +5,+4 Failed Tick Scalper Profit. So you woudnt be able to even get your Scalper Profit, then it would turn back on you and Whack you for -2 Point Stop (What Al recommends)

That range was a Tight, Controlled 1PT Range.

Also that SHort u missed by 1 Tick, was HUGE COUNTER TREND NO NO.
U had a Doji at Top of a Strong Bull day, i was looking for a Long 1 tick above High of that Doji. inside bar formed instead, and i was afraid of WHIPSAW both ways which USUALLY happens LOL

anyways, another shitty day. At end of day, it looks all CLEAR of course.

[Kiwi]

Originally Posted by szubaark »

At end of day, it looks all CLEAR of course.

LOL. Aint that the way.

My day (Tuesday) starts in 1.5 hours ... and I've just had GOOD NEWS. Torchwood will show in Australia only a couple of hours after it plays in the UK. Life is good. The world is fair. I think that even the markets will be kind on this last Tuesday of 2008/09.

Happy New Financial Year everyone

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by szubaark »

I hope you realize that most of these FBO were +5,+4 Failed Tick Scalper Profit. So you woudnt be able to even get your Scalper Profit, then it would turn back on you and Whack you for -2 Point Stop (What Al recommends)

That range was a Tight, Controlled 1PT Range.

Also that SHort u missed by 1 Tick, was HUGE COUNTER TREND NO NO.
U had a Doji at Top of a Strong Bull day, i was looking for a Long 1 tick above High of that Doji. inside bar formed instead, and i was afraid of WHIPSAW both ways which USUALLY happens LOL

anyways, another shitty day. At end of day, it looks all CLEAR of course.

I'm a bit confused at what you're pointing out?

All the fbo's yielded @ least a scalper's profit. And 2 out of 3 on the top had two legs down for well more than a scalper's profit. The last one at the top of the range moved all the way down to the other side of the range in one leg .

The first fbo on the bottom had two legs up to the other side of the range. The 2nd fbo on the bottom (also a failed Low2) moved all the way down through the bottom of the range and failed to break further......THEN moved up back to the top of the range. The last one would have been a funky entry as you'd have to have waited for the close of the bar as suggested.

None of these entries would have hit a 2 point stop. You could have gotten stopped out many times by adjusted your stop beyond each bar, but with a 3 pt range, Brooks suggests givng your trade room to work if it hasn't moved at least 4 ticks.

That last one missed by a tick, I don't think that was a bad trade? Definetely questionable, but not a horrible setup. It was a doji bar, but....it was at the top of the sideways range we'd been in all day. I wouldn't call this a strong bull day, I actually would ignore and disregard that strong trend early int he morning. This wasn't even a spike and channel bull where you get a strong move up and then at least an increasing channel, it was absolutely flat with no encouragement from the bulls.

[szubaark]

Today was safe giving your trade room and not letting next candle High Low Stop you out since the Range was so tight. BUT you NEVER know when we could get out of the Range on a 5-10PT Spike (happened last week), then instead of -2 Point Stop, your Stop would have been -5.

If you Shorted the Top of Range and Bought Bottom then u got your Scalp Profit, BUT if you waited for Signal Entry, they failed. Even small candle at bottom after spike next candle made lower low to take you out UNLESS you didnt scale by next candle high/low.

I prefer to scale Stop by next Previous candle high/Low because you never know when it can Spike against you.