[bathrobe]

Originally Posted by Ronin »

Bond Market Fundamentals Long Term View:

The slow velocity of money will prevent inflationary times, even though the money supply is being dramatically increased, it largely is not being spent in the real economy. Printing excess dollars only matters if it trickles down to consumers who actually spend those dollars.

We are facing a period like 1874-94 USA, 1929-41 USA and 1998-2008 Japan -- all deflationary periods, as opposed to our relatively frequent normal business cycle recessions.

Therefore, deflation is the likely scenario over the next decade, not inflation.

The 30yr Bond will go up on Monday ( short covering rally ) before it goes down again when Ring Ting TIM ( Treasury Sec. ) opens his mouth again and barks, then the 3% 10 Yr yield willl be penetrated and violated.

Ronin, do you trade ZB using fundamental analysis?

[Ronin]

Originally Posted by Ronin »

Bond Market Fundamentals Long Term View:

The slow velocity of money will prevent inflationary times, even though the money supply is being dramatically increased, it largely is not being spent in the real economy. Printing excess dollars only matters if it trickles down to consumers who actually spend those dollars.

We are facing a period like 1874-94 USA, 1929-41 USA and 1998-2008 Japan -- all deflationary periods, as opposed to our relatively frequent normal business cycle recessions.

Therefore, deflation is the likely scenario over the next decade, not inflation.

The 30yr Bond will go up on Monday ( short covering rally ) before it goes down again when Ring Ting TIM ( Treasury Sec. ) opens his mouth again and barks, then the 3% 10 Yr yield willl be penetrated and violated.

As expected the Bond Market goes up on Monday.

[bathrobe]

Very nice call on bonds

[Ronin]

Originally Posted by Ronin »

Bond Market Fundamentals Long Term View:

The slow velocity of money will prevent inflationary times, even though the money supply is being dramatically increased, it largely is not being spent in the real economy. Printing excess dollars only matters if it trickles down to consumers who actually spend those dollars.

We are facing a period like 1874-94 USA, 1929-41 USA and 1998-2008 Japan -- all deflationary periods, as opposed to our relatively frequent normal business cycle recessions.

Therefore, deflation is the likely scenario over the next decade, not inflation.

The 30yr Bond will go up on Monday ( short covering rally ) before it goes down again when Ring Ting TIM ( Treasury Sec. ) opens his mouth again and barks, then the 3% 10 Yr yield willl be penetrated and violated.

As expected, the 10 Year 3% Yield is penetrated after a short covering rally.

[enochbenjamin]

Can you expand on some of these set-ups?

thanks in advance.
enoch b.

Originally Posted by lakai »

the /zb is one of the easiest things to trade. There are of course a few things to look out for and those things you will catch the more you trade it.

Here's a few setups that occur most of the time.

Equal Distance Trade
12 tick reversal (happens once a new low is broken most of the time)
6 tick reversal
50% retracements

Things to look out for.
Those 1000 lot orders on the dom, while most get pulled, some are real and they'll take everyone out and this happens at least once a day...

[AbeSmith]

Thanks for the info Brownsfan. ZB looks great.

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by AbeSmith »

Thanks for the info Brownsfan. ZB looks great.

One of my faves to trade Abe.

If that is too jumpy, also look at the ZN or ZF.

[AbeSmith]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

One of my faves to trade Abe.

If that is too jumpy, also look at the ZN or ZF.

Thanks. I'll check them out. Actually I traded the TLT etf today, which appeared to be following closely the ZN. ZN is too expensive per tick for me and where I'm at with my trading currently, but I like the way it moves. How much is commission with ZB, ZN, and ZF? You might get cheaper commission if you trade the TLT with Inteactive Brokers. Less than $2 round trip for 700 shares I think, which would equal one ZB contract, both will move about $7 per tick, but probably lower commission with the etf.

That's how I trade the YM actually, through DIA etf, and pay less than $2 commission round trip, and get to lower my risk per tick as well.