[brownsfan019]

Took a look at the daily after today's strong bearish move and we definitely crashed through some previous support today.

Longer view:



Up close view:




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Is 1200 on the horizon for the ES? I could see it. A little support here @ 1240 to get through, but not much else in the way.

Note - I love that sell on the orange arrow in the first chart - great candle pattern right at the 200 SMA on the daily. As you can see, doesn't happen that often but what a nice sell via basic candlestick analysis @ the 200 SMA.

[firewalker]

Yeah I remember that SMA(200) touch, it had several confluences together. There's a chart posted somewhere in another place (I think it was the YM/ES/DJIA analysis thread).

I considered the area surrounding 1262 to be crucial too. I agree there's very little between this and lower now, and there's a good possibility we can fall lower fast and hard.

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

Took a look at the daily after today's strong bearish move and we definitely crashed through some previous support today.

Longer view:



Up close view:




==========

Is 1200 on the horizon for the ES? I could see it. A little support here @ 1240 to get through, but not much else in the way.

Note - I love that sell on the orange arrow in the first chart - great candle pattern right at the 200 SMA on the daily. As you can see, doesn't happen that often but what a nice sell via basic candlestick analysis @ the 200 SMA.

[brownsfan019]

Do we see 1200 today?

just kiddin.

[brownsfan019]

Today was an interesting day:




We have a hammer, which is a bullish individual candlestick but more important we saw an attempt to go lower that was rejected rather easily today.


The intraday chart (15 min) looked like:




What we saw were TWO attempts by the bears to penetrate even further and both attempts were unsuccessful.

And if we add the 1233 area on the intraday 15 min chart (nearest s/r on my dailies) we see:



The two attempts to bring the market down both occurred at a previous level. This resistance then turned into intraday support as evidenced by the up arrow to possibly get long. So just doing a quick look at the 15 min chart and using a previous support area, we can see 3 possible shorts and 1 possible long.


And a 5 min chart:




As we can see above, the first two possible areas to short were pretty clear and fairly easy. Note that both of these occurred in pre-market hours. Today was a non-farm payroll day, so pre-market gyrations were expected. And then right into lunch we get the lunchtime congestion, which also coincidentally was at the previous support area. Price hung around there for close to 2 hours before the bears gave up and the bulls took control; therefore giving us that daily hammer.

IMO we have a pretty defined trading range, box or area (whatever you want to call it).

[MC]

Great post as always BF. What do you make of the volume on the bounce though...it was fairly paltry. This is one area I struggle with, balancing what weight to place in price action and what weight the volume should get.

[firewalker]

Good illustration brownsfan... that's actually very similar to my approach.

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

Today was an interesting day:

As we can see above, the first two possible areas to short were pretty clear and fairly easy. Note that both of these occurred in pre-market hours. .

Just one comment: on my chart the second short occurred 15min after the open...?

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by MC »

Great post as always BF. What do you make of the volume on the bounce though...it was fairly paltry. This is one area I struggle with, balancing what weight to place in price action and what weight the volume should get.

Good question MC. I didn't even look at volume to be honest in my analysis there. Through quote.com it appears the volume on Fri was pretty substantial, so not sure if we are on the same page here:



Quote.com has been known to be wrong before as well.

==========

Now if you are referring to the previous area that was used as a S/R level, I pay no attention to volume when finding S/R. Why? I'm looking for areas where price was QUICKLY rejected, which means more often than not, the volume will be lower at this level. In other words, while the entire daily candle might show good/decent volume, the area that I am really interested in more often than not has lower volume. And that makes sense - I want to see where buyers/sellers stepped in to stop price in it's tracks and that's usually a volume burst but not necessarily a substantial volume push.

Volume on the daily is a good guide, but it can be misleading in terms of how much volume traded at what level.

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Good illustration brownsfan... that's actually very similar to my approach.



Just one comment: on my chart the second short occurred 15min after the open...?

On quote.com it looks like it was around 845am EST, but that could be off. I don't have my OEC trader up right now to see exactly.