[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by trader273 »

I dont think its possible to tell if the long shadow after a move is either buyers drying up or sellers coming in. I think that is what the guys over in the VSA thread are trying to do, but they post everything in hindsight and some see entirely different things on the same bar. Many have shown time after time in the CC that simple analysis is all that is needed.

Not everyone who contributes to the VSA thread "posts everything in hindsight". See MyBlog, below.

As to whether a long wick signifies a dryup in buying or a rush of selling, that depends on whether the wick is above or below and whether all of this takes place at support or resistance or neither. If there is a long wick, then there has obviously been a shift in balance. If one wants to know who's in control, all he has to do is look at what happened to price as a result of all this effort.

What SunTrader describes, assuming I understand his post, is what Wyckoff proposes, that the rally off what appears to be a bottom may be smart buying, stupid buying, and/or short covering. If the latter two, the upmove won't be sustained due to the fact that shorts are buying only to cover and the stupid will throw their shares back onto the market as soon as things begin to go wrong (weak hands). He therefore counsels waiting for the test of that bottom in order to find out whether or not (a) sellers are really done and (b) there are any real buyers out there.

[trader273]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Not everyone who contributes to the VSA thread "posts everything in hindsight". See MyBlog, below.

As to whether a long wick signifies a dryup in buying or a rush of selling, that depends on whether the wick is above or below and whether all of this takes place at support or resistance or neither. If there is a long wick, then there has obviously been a shift in balance. If one wants to know who's in control, all he has to do is look at what happened to price as a result of all this effort.

What SunTrader describes, assuming I understand his post, is what Wyckoff proposes, that the rally off what appears to be a bottom may be smart buying, stupid buying, and/or short covering. If the latter two, the upmove won't be sustained due to the fact that shorts are buying only to cover and the stupid will throw their shares back onto the market as soon as things begin to go wrong (weak hands). He therefore counsels waiting for the test of that bottom in order to find out whether or not (a) sellers are really done and (b) there are any real buyers out there.

OK, I'm not going to try and pretend I understood that. Maybe if I spent some time on it I could figure this VSA stuff out, but what is the point? Make something complicated when it needs not to be?? That makes sense. I'll just stick to simple candle analysis since it works and many, including me, have shown trades before the move occurred. Why add all this other "information"? Markets are simple, it's the traders that feel the need to complicate things.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by trader273 »

OK, I'm not going to try and pretend I understood that. Maybe if I spent some time on it I could figure this VSA stuff out, but what is the point? Make something complicated when it needs not to be?? That makes sense. I'll just stick to simple candle analysis since it works and many, including me, have shown trades before the move occurred. Why add all this other "information"? Markets are simple, it's the traders that feel the need to complicate things.

First, it's not VSA.

Second, what's to understand? You bounce off support. If it's serious buying, you get a V reversal, perhaps off a hammer. If it's not, you get a retest of the bounce. If you want to enter off the hammer, that's up to you. Wyckoff suggests that you wait for the retest. That's all there is to it.

[SunTrader]

I think it is a matter of opinion as to what is simple and what is complicated related to one's length of market experience.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by SunTrader »

I think it is a matter of opinion as to what is simple and what is complicated related to one's length of market experience.

If you can't put it on a 6x8 card, it's complicated.

[james_gsx]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

If you can't put it on a 6x8 card, it's complicated.

LOL! I love it.