[james_gsx]

Everything still looks bullish short term. I would be slightly concerned about a possible spinning top on the YM but I wouldn't exit our trade yet. I would on the other hand move up my stop and go running around the neighborhood naked with our near 700+ pt trade. (why the hell am I day trading if we could do this??)

We hit some resistance today, but I think that's perfectly normal and I wouldn't be too surprised to see some profit taking the next two days. I will just have to wait and see what candles are produced and what the weekly chart ends up looking like.

Brownsfan, if what I'm seeing on the ES isn't a possible inverted hammer, then let me know what it's called

[brownsfan019]

Here's my take on the YM:




What I see is that our initial long is still rockin and rollin, so that's good.

We now have an inverted hammer / shooting star, aka bearish type candle, near a possible support/old resistance zone. This is a tad concerning. The options at this point are:
1) Exit our long at the market tomorrow.
2) Exit our long IF this bearish candle confirms.
3) Exit our long AND initiate a short position IF the candle confirms.

For the candle to 'confirm', I would be looking for price to go below the low of today's candle, which is approx 13,830. Therefore, a sell stop could be placed at 13,829 or lower to either close the long trade or close the long trade and go short.

Based on the candles, I would consider that short; HOWEVER, there is a possible support zone around 13,750. So this could be a quick pop type trade - if the short fills, I would watch closely to see if that level could be broken. If that 13,750 level can break, I would feel good about the short.

[brownsfan019]

Today was an interesting day. I was curious to see if that YM short filled.

If you traded during the day, you know it moved up a little and then down. It moved a little heavier down towards the end of the day, so I was curious to see if our resting sell stop would have been triggered.

Here's the chart:



I posted the closing numbers on today's trading to verify that our resting sell stop was not filled today. The low of today was 837 and our sell stop is 829 - 8 pts away. So based on our chart, #1 long is still working in some capacity - whether it's a full boat of contracts or a trimmed down amount.

Based on today's numbers, we could take a short based on the red spinning top type candle with a sell stop @ 836 or lower, so our sell stop level has been raised based on today's candle. You could also leave the sell stop based on the other order as well, which would be a more conservative play. Again, keep in mind that there's a support level highlighted in yellow on the chart. The conservative play would be to wait for that level to be broken before taking a short. I like a little risk, so I'm ok with this current possible short knowing that it could stop out or provide a small gain (in context of some of our others here). If we get filled short, I would just be looking to see a close below that level to feel better about the trade.

What I'll be watching to see is how much action takes place when that low is taken out. We are taking a short based on candle patterns. Others may simply place a sell stop based on the low of the candle. That's fine with us b/c the more momentum, the better.

Here's an example of taking a trade knowing that there is s/r level close by and you watch to see how it develops:




So what we have here is two possible reasons to go long at #1 and #2. Hopefully it's easy to see the nice setups there - a hammer at each, both at the 50 SMA. Now, when taking these longs though, you have to see some possible resistance just above (yellow line). As you can see, when that level was to be tested, it just busted through and said see ya. That's what I would be watching on this possible short - we know there's a possible support level close by that could cause us to go long again rather quickly, but we'll take that short and be conscious of this level.

[james_gsx]

I wish I was home right now to post charts. But it looks like a H&S pattern could be forming on the YM. I would definitely wait until next week though before trying to go short in this market.

[brownsfan019]

We'll see how today goes James. Thus far in pre-market the YM is up, so no fill on our short (yet). There's not much on tap today for econ news and it's quadruple witching, so we'll see how the futures react today.

[james_gsx]

Tomorrow we have Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales data coming out at 10 am ET. As far as the charts go, I think the time to go short may be now. We have an inverted hammer on the YM and consolidation around resistance which is bearish to me. I still think we can get at least a 50% retracement of the big real body created when the Feds cut rates.

Same goes with the ES. But There is a doji with highs at resistance, we are also seeing lower lows, which is bearish too.

[brownsfan019]

James,
Good charts.

I'm thinking of just taking a break from posting updates and providing all this work when it's just you and I discussing. I'll be around and keep the CC alive, but when it's one or two people talking alone on a forum, it gets old real quick. There's obviously not that much interest and I have no desire to put together charts with annotations and then document that here when very few are going to take a look.

I was actually thinking of starting my own little trading blog, so maybe I'll just do that. I can post my thoughts and charts and not be concerned about who is interested on a forum. I enjoy talking candles and trading here, but there's just little interest at this point and I hate feeling like I am wasting time when I've got a lot going on right now and time is precious.

[wrbtrader]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 »

James,
Good charts.

I'm thinking of just taking a break from posting updates and providing all this work when it's just you and I discussing. I'll be around and keep the CC alive, but when it's one or two people talking alone on a forum, it gets old real quick. There's obviously not that much interest and I have no desire to put together charts with annotations and then document that here when very few are going to take a look.

I was actually thinking of starting my own little trading blog, so maybe I'll just do that. I can post my thoughts and charts and not be concerned about who is interested on a forum. I enjoy talking candles and trading here, but there's just little interest at this point and I hate feeling like I am wasting time when I've got a lot going on right now and time is precious.

I had a Japanese Candlestick pattern analysis blog once.

I use to post daily charts, analysis, broker statments and an occassional video of an actual trade of a candlestick pattern (you could see my chart and broker platform in the video from entry to exit).

Very little interest I got except for an occasional message that Japanese Candlesticks don't work even though I was very profitable (except for a few trading days) along with showing verification of the profits.

My point, if your going to start a blog...don't do it for others nor for educational purpose.

Instead, do it for yourself regardless if you only get 1 visitor per week or 100,000 visitors per day and you just may be able to endure much longer than most in maintaining a trading blog.

Simply, if you do it for others...that's when potential problems begin.

Last of all, its a lot of work maintaing a blog (I lasted only 4 months in doing a blog).