[trader273]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Have to say as we are up close to Resistance short is the only trade that makes sense from an R:R point of view. The only thing I don't like is that there has not been better price rejection. A couple of nice long upper wicks is more comfortable to me (not that I trade the daily).

I guess it all comes down to how you are viewing the Support and Resistance. If viewing only on a daily it would appear that there are not many upper shadows, but if you view it in a context of daily and weekly, you will see that sellers are apparently at this level.

[james_gsx]

ANOTHER doji/spinningtop/hammer/boring day!

So instead of staring at these, I broke down the 5 and 15 min charts. Something interesting came up. We had a nice rally on both the 5 and 15, and that trend has broken. Notice volume on the 15 min chart, it decreased as price went up and increased as price went down. Then when that trend broke, volume really increased. Maybe someone with some VSA knowledge can chime in, or else I'll just assume sellers bullied the buyers in the CME playground.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by james_gsx »

Maybe someone with some VSA knowledge can chime in, or else I'll just assume sellers bullied the buyers in the CME playground.

Be careful what you wish for

Getting hung up on individual bars would not be terribly productive over this span of time, but Wyckoff (adding another chief to the council) would have you note the waves here. Note how the buying waves are longer in time and distance, for the most part, than the selling waves, at least until midday Monday. The selling wave that began there is much longer in distance and generally longer in time. Yesterday's selling wave that began midday was longer in time but not in distance than the buying wave that began in the morning.

All of this has to be placed within the context of S/R. Traders have held price up here for five days now, which is interesting in itself. And they are testing the April lows. There's loads of indecision up here (all the dojis), and the volume and accompanying price move on Monday are perhaps more telling that the moves yesterday (on the daily). However, you'll note that after the selling climax in January, price remained in the upper half of the range until the beginning of March, when it dropped to test the January lows, so staying up here for this length of time is no guarantee of a breakout to the upside. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary, I see no reason to interrupt the usual buy-support/sell-resistance stance. If instead we break out to the upside, everybody knows what to do.

[MC]

Originally Posted by trader273 »

I guess it all comes down to how you are viewing the Support and Resistance. If viewing only on a daily it would appear that there are not many upper shadows, but if you view it in a context of daily and weekly, you will see that sellers are apparently at this level.

Very nice chart analysis. I like it.

[brownsfan019]

The daily ES is quite the interesting looking creature right now.

Still maintaining a short here with a great risk/reward. There appears to be some indecision on both ends, so the first serious volume surge should push this thing around some.

[james_gsx]

Broke 1360 with strong volume and a WRB.

[zeon]

Originally Posted by james_gsx »

Broke 1360 with strong volume and a WRB.

Looks like the NDX is still holding support at 1825 though.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by james_gsx »

Broke 1360 with strong volume and a WRB.

The difficulties lie in breaking "support" at 60, then entering what is an entire zone of support from 60 all the way down to 42 (to start). If you're already in, great. Otherwise, finding either a good entry or a good exit can be challenging.

Since the move up on the 1st was not an air pocket, there's going to be support all the way down to where that move began, if it gets that far, though it will likely be in stages.

Even with a great entry over the past day or so, the patience required here will be beyond many traders.