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Old 08-14-2011, 04:58 PM   #9

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Re: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

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Originally Posted by doubletop11 »
The ideas that have been brought up so far are very intriguing. Being a trader that looks as much as the big levels as the small. I would like to get your view of what this book says on how human nature in the marketplace and the natural laws of supply and demand?
This book does not make any attempts to make a study of the things you've mentioned. It only leads you as to how you should go about studying the markets in a statistically relevant fashion.
The title of the book is a little misleading. There are no technical analysis tools mentioned, just a leading of how to properly analyze the validity of your proposed method to see if it might be successful or not.
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Old 08-15-2011, 01:09 AM   #10

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Re: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

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Originally Posted by clmacdougall »
The title of the book is a little misleading. There are no technical analysis tools mentioned, just a leading of how to properly analyze the validity of your proposed method to see if it might be successful or not.
From what I have read on the free amazon preview it seems to talk about how to really look at a strategy or trading system from an empirical standpoint. I totally agree with that in concept! In my trading endeavors, I have made a semi-automated system that I believe doesn't rely on faith, magic numbers, expert interpretation, or lagging indicators with divergence or only correct after the fact. Rather it calculates and draw these zones the same way every single time. The interesting thing is that as I continue down this road of pure automation I'm wondering if this is a good book that will shed light into good theory of markets for current day market dynamics and how automation should look at the last 10 years of the new "electronic trading era" that we are in or if it still generalizes the topic so much that it's ambitious enough to always be correct. IE: psychic telling you general stuff that could be true of anyone. I noted that it said it looked at 25 years of buy/sells in the S&P. That's all well and good but if the underlying conditions of the marketplace have changed, "electronic trading era", would not half whatever ideas it assumes at the beginning of that time be inconsistent with what we are really seeing on the charts. Frankly, while the S&P/ ES is major market. I personally think that its dynamics are shewed from the norm of almost every other market globally. I don't wish to get on my soapbox about the dangers and traps of the ES.
I have not read the book and would like to know a little more before I buy it off amazon, please enlighten me.
sincerely thank you!
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Old 08-15-2011, 07:18 PM   #11

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Re: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

This book teaches you how to identify problems with your data mining techniques. It also teaches you how to apply a Monte Carlo or bootstrapping technique to your statistical sampling process.
I'm not sure if that's what you're looking for or not. It does not uncover any secret indicators. It simply teaches you how to analyze your own methodology and decide upon it's statistical reliability to be profitable or not.
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