March 19 - Watching and learning
Posted 03-19-2008 at 11:45 AM by zeon
For me the plan is to watch more and trade less, now that I'm trying to come to terms with trading off buying & selling pressure and not bars or candles anymore.
So I payed close attention for a while before the open and looked at the NQ (although I trade the ES), I wanted to see what happened near those levels you've marked.
I noted a strong reaction of 1781 that pushed price lower a couple of points. This happened at about 15 minutes before the open. I'm looking at this on a 1-minute chart, but I've placed the 5-min next to it (which I usually trade off) and on the 5-min it was a "shooting-star" bar if you permit me saying.
So I'd probably would've shorted, if this was my market of choice and if this wasn't premarket. But anyway, what happened in the next 15 or so minutes was that buyers didn't want price to drop below 1775 apparently. I sensed a lot of upwards pressure. So unless I walked away, I think I might have closed a short because price didn't react as I'd want it to (meaning, it should drop down immediately!).
Meanwhile we are about 10 points lower and it looks like it would've turned out a profitable short anyhow. I do have a question now, directed at dbphoenix in relation to the daily charts he posts: If you are trading from S to R and the other way around and you are short from 1780, surely isn't it a bit like wishful thinking when you hope that price will go back all the way to support (perhaps around 1745?)
So I payed close attention for a while before the open and looked at the NQ (although I trade the ES), I wanted to see what happened near those levels you've marked.
I noted a strong reaction of 1781 that pushed price lower a couple of points. This happened at about 15 minutes before the open. I'm looking at this on a 1-minute chart, but I've placed the 5-min next to it (which I usually trade off) and on the 5-min it was a "shooting-star" bar if you permit me saying.
So I'd probably would've shorted, if this was my market of choice and if this wasn't premarket. But anyway, what happened in the next 15 or so minutes was that buyers didn't want price to drop below 1775 apparently. I sensed a lot of upwards pressure. So unless I walked away, I think I might have closed a short because price didn't react as I'd want it to (meaning, it should drop down immediately!).
Meanwhile we are about 10 points lower and it looks like it would've turned out a profitable short anyhow. I do have a question now, directed at dbphoenix in relation to the daily charts he posts: If you are trading from S to R and the other way around and you are short from 1780, surely isn't it a bit like wishful thinking when you hope that price will go back all the way to support (perhaps around 1745?)
Total Comments 4
Comments
|
ignoring signals?"So please address all this in my Blog. For now, I will point out again that it all depends on support and resistance. These are the same regardless of the bar interval chosen. There may be "loads" of signals of one sort or another, but if they don't occur at support and resistance, i.e., those levels which "big money" themselves have created, then just ignore them."
The above is a quote from dbphoenix, which has got me thinking. I've tried doing so "just ignoring them" and it does give me less false entry signals, but I'm having a terrible hard time exiting a trade that way. It means I don't exit until price runs into another of these 'important' levels but in reality this comes down to price going in the right direction for a bit, but then reversing and taking me out. Surely a trader must pay attention to those signals for exiting a trade? How else does one define a reversal signal? |
 
|
|
|
I don't wish or hope. I don't care. If it gets there, it gets there. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Though if it doesn't, I will have learned something that I can plug into my map.
If you want to attend to every instance of what you think is a signal all along the way, that's up to you. But if you're still trading, I suggest you stop and begin to define these things for yourself. If you don't, then you're gambling, not trading. |
Updated 03-19-2008 at 01:53 PM by zeon |
|
|
Sorry, somehow managed to edit your post instead of reply to it.
 Anyway, Quote:
I don't wish or hope. I don't care. If it gets there, it gets there. If it doesn't, it doesn't. Though if it doesn't, I will have learned something that I can plug into my map.
Quote:
If you want to attend to every instance of what you think is a signal all along the way, that's up to you. But if you're still trading, I suggest you stop and begin to define these things for yourself. If you don't, then you're gambling, not trading.
I've been reading several posts of yours and it looks to me like you have this kind of attitude that you're not worried about your trade doing something unexpected, like if you know that eventually it will come good. Perhaps that just takes the kind of confidence I don't have... |
|
|
|
|
At the end of the day, price went significantly lower and - what appeared at first to be wishful thinking - the support level around 1740 was reached and breached! In fact, with the close at 1725, price went down 55 points. Despite the "at the time" reversal signal, perhaps leaving the trade open till the next S/R level is indeed the way to more profits. And less trades.
|
|
|
Recent Blog Entries by zeon
- March 25 Review (03-26-2008)
- March 19 - Watching and learning (03-19-2008)
- March 14 -Gutted- (03-14-2008)
- March 13 (03-13-2008)
- Trade of March 13 (03-13-2008)
