Ahh the bitter sweet taste of irony...
When it comes to the markets, I am a firm believer of 3 things.
1: Support and resistance
2: Trends
3: Each moment is unique and should be treated as such
The problem is, I cannot practise what I preach.
Up until a month ago, I used S/R on the 240m charts and it worked well... It worked well for some time and thus, I really felt confident in my view of the market and fullfilled my 3 rules.
On the huge drop, I misdrew the important levels and took a beating and thus, I went to the drawing board as one does, and looked at filtering my reversals with trends. Great it looked. Buying S and selling R as is on its own is not enough and this was the perfect filter. It met all 3 of my rules nicely and stopped me catching falling knives.
Over the last 2 weeks, what would have been perfect in my old ways has been ruined with my trend filter.........
Arghhhhhhhhhhhhh!
So my dilemma continues.....
On the one hand, I go back to S/R alone which, looking over the last 4 months, would ave done me proud and utilizing my 3 rules well (although 2 would just be - not drawn in)...
On the other, I continue using a filter in order to not catch the knives...
Both do act per Rule 3, but the first can be slightly misdrawn and the latter, useless in fast turning markets......
Hmmmmm
Am I fulfilling rule 3 properly? Am I really watching and analysing or am I no better than any other system trader? IS my plan too rigid or is it just?
Should my chart be blank each AM and I guage each candle with current S/R (or further back if in no mans land) or should I stick with what I have?
Should I just go down the pub and come back next week fresh and ready and stick to the normal plan?!!!
Decisions..........
I think partly what has really pissed me off is that S has become R so perfectly and I expect it to break...... damn experience ruining confidence.
1: Support and resistance
2: Trends
3: Each moment is unique and should be treated as such
The problem is, I cannot practise what I preach.
Up until a month ago, I used S/R on the 240m charts and it worked well... It worked well for some time and thus, I really felt confident in my view of the market and fullfilled my 3 rules.
On the huge drop, I misdrew the important levels and took a beating and thus, I went to the drawing board as one does, and looked at filtering my reversals with trends. Great it looked. Buying S and selling R as is on its own is not enough and this was the perfect filter. It met all 3 of my rules nicely and stopped me catching falling knives.
Over the last 2 weeks, what would have been perfect in my old ways has been ruined with my trend filter.........
Arghhhhhhhhhhhhh!
So my dilemma continues.....
On the one hand, I go back to S/R alone which, looking over the last 4 months, would ave done me proud and utilizing my 3 rules well (although 2 would just be - not drawn in)...
On the other, I continue using a filter in order to not catch the knives...
Both do act per Rule 3, but the first can be slightly misdrawn and the latter, useless in fast turning markets......
Hmmmmm
Am I fulfilling rule 3 properly? Am I really watching and analysing or am I no better than any other system trader? IS my plan too rigid or is it just?
Should my chart be blank each AM and I guage each candle with current S/R (or further back if in no mans land) or should I stick with what I have?
Should I just go down the pub and come back next week fresh and ready and stick to the normal plan?!!!
Decisions..........
I think partly what has really pissed me off is that S has become R so perfectly and I expect it to break...... damn experience ruining confidence.
Total Comments 3
Comments
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I guess it depends on what you want out of it.
What market circumstances do you prefer? If you know you'll have trouble in huge drops that show very little pressure from the buying side, you can decide to stay out and wait for other conditions. Or you can adjust. I think if you're going to have very rigid rules, you're bound to experience problems in one or another market condition... |
 
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I don't want to profitable in certain market conditions and not others. EVERY condition offers profit, there is no such thing as noise and a good trader should be succesful in any condition not just one. Reading the markets and knowing how it reacts and making sure you are all good for any condition is vital IMO.
As shown though in the thread yesterday... patience is the key and 9/10, S does make it back to R, I just lost faith..... |
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"...a good trader should be succesful in any condition not just one."
Well I guess you can say that, but how many of us are that good that they can trade anything the market throws at them? I know I can't. If I see price making higher lows and lower highs, converging into a point, I stay out. There's no point trying to trade a range that's becoming ever smaller and where the size of your stop does not warrant the potential for profit. I think what differentiates good traders from average traders is that they sense what condition the market is in and they have the patience to sit it out, until a better opportunity comes around the corner. |
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