fear
After missing out on a few 100+ trades to fear and stress brought about by a recent horrific drawdown of 5 losers I have decided to post my opinions, beliefs, mindset issues etc.
After yesterday's down move on the dow ( which I had an entry short at 250 but did not take due to a 20 pip stop - fairly large - actually let me delve on this point. I am a reversal trader primarily, my signals cater for both reversals and cont trades but i prefer reversals as the inital thrust up can be quite lucrative, however my main flaw is that I do not trust my signals and look to others for confirmation; be it forums, trading colleagues etc. Therefore When the signal does appear I go through a period of paralysis and then a session of headbutting as she eases towards my target - will address this further in later posts). Ok back to the dow, well in my experience the V off support at 12080-90 ( massive support zone and the usual resting place for price before we break 12k -> 11900 -> 11700 etc), well just before the close we saw value buyers pile in at 12080-90 pushing it up 100 odd intra and premarket whereby the bears at 12180 took over and now hoverng at 12020. Well my bias today is for an up day however I have been wrong in the past as we all have, however when I have been wrong its been completely converse. We are sitting on the last bastion of capitulation before the big break the whole world and their mother has been waiting for, so when I say it could go the other way, well it will go big time.
Case for an up day: Euro/ swiss/ jpy/chf retreating this morning against the $ and £, Euro being battered by £ also commodities - crude and gold have cooled off (oxymoron if I have ever heard one) , as I type this YM has just bounced 50 points premarket off 115. Darn! Why can she not wait intramarket, it would be too much to ask for her to pullback to the 90's now. This is where it gets tough becuase I have to enter on a pullback or at the highs intramarket which is something I am very averse to. Anyway less of the talk, I will post some charts in different timeframes to demonstrate my bias.
After yesterday's down move on the dow ( which I had an entry short at 250 but did not take due to a 20 pip stop - fairly large - actually let me delve on this point. I am a reversal trader primarily, my signals cater for both reversals and cont trades but i prefer reversals as the inital thrust up can be quite lucrative, however my main flaw is that I do not trust my signals and look to others for confirmation; be it forums, trading colleagues etc. Therefore When the signal does appear I go through a period of paralysis and then a session of headbutting as she eases towards my target - will address this further in later posts). Ok back to the dow, well in my experience the V off support at 12080-90 ( massive support zone and the usual resting place for price before we break 12k -> 11900 -> 11700 etc), well just before the close we saw value buyers pile in at 12080-90 pushing it up 100 odd intra and premarket whereby the bears at 12180 took over and now hoverng at 12020. Well my bias today is for an up day however I have been wrong in the past as we all have, however when I have been wrong its been completely converse. We are sitting on the last bastion of capitulation before the big break the whole world and their mother has been waiting for, so when I say it could go the other way, well it will go big time.
Case for an up day: Euro/ swiss/ jpy/chf retreating this morning against the $ and £, Euro being battered by £ also commodities - crude and gold have cooled off (oxymoron if I have ever heard one) , as I type this YM has just bounced 50 points premarket off 115. Darn! Why can she not wait intramarket, it would be too much to ask for her to pullback to the 90's now. This is where it gets tough becuase I have to enter on a pullback or at the highs intramarket which is something I am very averse to. Anyway less of the talk, I will post some charts in different timeframes to demonstrate my bias.
Recent Blog Entries by smbtnt
- 180 to 310 (06-13-2008)
- signal not taken.... (06-13-2008)
- fearful and stressed (06-13-2008)
- fear (06-13-2008)
- 21/05 (05-22-2008)
