This is my journal I am using to stay disciplined with my trading. I will have my market analysis as well as self analysis included here. Also some articles I particularly like or other ones that I write just to get the thoughts down.
Trade Setup For 24th July
Posted 07-24-2008 at 12:33 AM by jasont
Here are my zones I'm watching for 24th July:
Resistance
1285.75-1286.75
1290.50-1291.50
1300.50-1301.50
1308.50-1309.75
Support
1278.50-1277.25
1270.25-1269.25
1261.75-1263
1256-1255
My Outlook
Yesterday gave us a pause for the recent rise we have seen. I am leaning towards some movement lower or more consolidation right now. The reversal we have seen from the lows does look much better than I first expected. I'm not convinced it is a turn of broader trend yet but I do believe it is stronger than I first anticipated.
There isn't much to report on the VIX. Gold and Oil have both seen decent sized declines which is positive for the stocks. That leads me to also put more weight on this turn we have been seeing. It may in fact be the bottom if Oil continues its decline as it has been the major contributor at this stage to global inflation. The cause of many countries worries.
The USD has seen the strength it's needed. My guess is that the Oil and Gold funds are moving out of those two respectively and into the US economy. It would make sense.
My Focus
Currently we sit at the 1280 area in the overnight market. The speed of the move up over the past two days has been fast so we are likely to see an extended consolidation or small drop.
For me the pivotal area is 1278. If we gap beneath that at the open I would be looking for some weakness to enter should we reach back up to the 1278 area. If we are going down, the 1270 area is where I would be looking for some strength to enter the market. However I don't believe it will be as strong at holding as 1262. There is likely many traders stuck in that 1262 congestion area prior to us rocketing off late on Friday.
If we gap up at the open, 1291 is the important area for us to break through. If we can't do it and some weakness hits, I'll be looking for some possible downside movement to push us back into yesterdays range.
Resistance
1285.75-1286.75
1290.50-1291.50
1300.50-1301.50
1308.50-1309.75
Support
1278.50-1277.25
1270.25-1269.25
1261.75-1263
1256-1255
My Outlook
Yesterday gave us a pause for the recent rise we have seen. I am leaning towards some movement lower or more consolidation right now. The reversal we have seen from the lows does look much better than I first expected. I'm not convinced it is a turn of broader trend yet but I do believe it is stronger than I first anticipated.
There isn't much to report on the VIX. Gold and Oil have both seen decent sized declines which is positive for the stocks. That leads me to also put more weight on this turn we have been seeing. It may in fact be the bottom if Oil continues its decline as it has been the major contributor at this stage to global inflation. The cause of many countries worries.
The USD has seen the strength it's needed. My guess is that the Oil and Gold funds are moving out of those two respectively and into the US economy. It would make sense.
My Focus
Currently we sit at the 1280 area in the overnight market. The speed of the move up over the past two days has been fast so we are likely to see an extended consolidation or small drop.
For me the pivotal area is 1278. If we gap beneath that at the open I would be looking for some weakness to enter should we reach back up to the 1278 area. If we are going down, the 1270 area is where I would be looking for some strength to enter the market. However I don't believe it will be as strong at holding as 1262. There is likely many traders stuck in that 1262 congestion area prior to us rocketing off late on Friday.
If we gap up at the open, 1291 is the important area for us to break through. If we can't do it and some weakness hits, I'll be looking for some possible downside movement to push us back into yesterdays range.
Total Comments 2
Comments
|
Interesting number jason. Agree with most of them. Except, from where does 1269-70 come as potential support?
The only thing I can see is that it's close to the pre-market high on the 21st (that day we talked about in your blog as well, where price opened above the 1262 resistance level). |
 
|
|
|
The 1269 area comes from the 9th July. If you have a look on the daily chart you can see the day of the 9th we dropped pretty hard after what many would have considered should have been a follow through buying day.
If you look at the 9th in the intra day time frame, you can see that we played around that area a fair bit and then dropped hard trapping many traders who were possibly looking for some buying follow through. We passed through that area quickly again on the 22nd which likely didn't give traders enough time to close their shorts or longs for break even should they have them from the 9th. Now once we reach back to that area I suspect traders still stuck will want to get out. It is a level I have had in my s/r spreadsheets since 9th July, not made up from recent time. |
|
|
Recent Blog Entries by jasont
- Moving Journal (08-03-2008)
- Trade Setup For 1st August (08-01-2008)
- Trading for 31st July (08-01-2008)
- Trade Setup for July 31st (07-31-2008)
- Trading for 30th July (07-30-2008)
