This is my journal I am using to stay disciplined with my trading. I will have my market analysis as well as self analysis included here. Also some articles I particularly like or other ones that I write just to get the thoughts down.
Trading For 9th July
Posted 07-09-2008 at 10:55 PM by jasont
Here is my journal from 9th July:
We have the Oil inventories at 10.35am today. Ordinarily I wouldn't pay as much attention to that but it seems the market is having a higher than usual reaction to oil prices right now. I'll keep my eyes open at that time and not enter any new trades between 10.20am and the Oil news.
The overnight market has seen a slow decline followed by a rise in the last few hours. We have seen some support come in around 1268 in the overnight market so that could be a level to watch. We are roughly at yesterdays close so the plan is to look for some possible strength to come in at 1271 but if that fails some strength at 1264 will be anticipated. If we end up beneath 1264 and don't quickly reverse then we could see further selling come in.
9:35 We have seen an open roughly the same as the close and we are hitting some resistance here at the 1278 level. The Tick has moved into the negative right now but only slightly. I am still looking for a move down to the 1271 area or 1264 for some strength to enter. Volume has been lighter than usual for the open right now.
9:47 I missed the entry at 1273.50 for a long off the 1272 support area. We have now reached the 1277 resistance area again. We have pulled back on the higher move with the Tick and made a volume extreme as we bounced from the support level. I'll keep patient here as things aren't looking great for buying right now.
9:56 I'm in a long trade at 1271.75 for a bounce from the 1271 area with my stop at 1270.25. Initial profit target is at 1273.25. Idea is the Tick failing to go lower as we moved lower on the ES. Volume extreme came in as well. I will exit early if we can't sustain a move above the zero line on the tick and move higher in price. I moved the stop up to 1270.75 to limit the risk on this as it is taking some time to move.
10:00 My profit target has been taken and I will trail the rest of the position. Stop is still at 1270.75 and may get taken here. Tick coming back into the zero area. Volume declined on the move higher. Second position out for a 1 point loss. It was an attempt and I was happy I stuck with my plan.
10:04 We still haven't moved strongly beyond the resistance area but the Tick is showing little interest from stocks for buying. Could today be a slow trend down day? Volume is certainly increasing on the downside which suggests the selling side is stronger. If we can't pull up at 1264 then things are not looking good.
10:11 I am in long again on this move but with only half position. I am in long at 1272.50 and my stop is at 1272. Reason for the half position is that the stop area is further away than I ordinarily like. Tick is pushing into the positive area and volume was declining as we moved further lower. I just took an exit for a half point loss as we were hitting the SMA on the 2 minute and moving further down with the Tick. I'll leave this move alone now until it sorts itself out. Has turned into a sideways stall right now.
10:21 We are now into the area I won't be trading as I wait for the oil figures. We moved higher not long after I exited my position which is a lesson to be learnt. We are heading back towards the 1276 resistance area right now. The Tick has made a feeble move into the positive right now and doesn't look very strong. Volume has shown an increase on the latest rise though which is a possible sign of further moves higher.
We appear at this point to be following the upward trend set by yesterday. If we make new highs I will look for a bounce off the 1276 area for an entry if it appears.
10:41 We had the Oil news released and it appears as though it hasn't really caused a stir. We have come back from the 1277 resistance area and the tick has moved back beneath the zero line. There was a volume extreme after the news but that is typical of news releases.
10:55 We came back to the 1272 resistance area and have now bounced. The Tick made a big move into the positive area and could pull an extreme. Volume has declined on the move lower and appears to be increasing on the higher move. I didn't enter long as I am still waiting for something solid to present itself. Right now we are stuck between 1278 and 1272.
11:09 I'm in short at 1276.50 for the Tick extreme on the buying side, meeting resistance and a close volume extreme. My stop is in at 1278 and initial profit target is at 1275.50. I will get out early if we can't sustain a move beneath the zero line on the Tick.
11:12 First profit target taken. Trailing the next lot. Need to be cautious around 1274 as it could bounce from there. Moved stop down to 1277.50 as a precaution, wouldn't like to make a loss on this move. This doesn't appear to be dropping like I would want to see just yet.
11:16 Moving stop on this down to 1277 as I want to limit the loss if we bounce from 1274. I don't think we should get up there if we are going lower anyhow. I'll bring in my offsetting strategy should we gain support at 1272 again. Volume hasn't been strong on the downside just yet either.
11:22 I am out the second position at 1276.50. Took it before hitting 1277 as we are showing good signs of bouncing here.
11:24 we are currently riding the fast EMA pretty well here although the size of the moves are getting smaller and smaller. We are currently battling on with an uptrend that just can't garner the strength to break the earlier highs yet. 1278.75 is the roof and we are trying to climb at this point. Volume is declining into this roof which is interesting. The Tick is swinging back and forth from one almost extreme to another. This could become a decent breakout if we make new highs. There is quite a roof of selling in its way though.
11:51 We have made a move out of the uptrend to the downside. I couldn't get on the trade as my platform was showing delayed data. We attempted the highs of the day for the second time but couldn't get the oomph needed to get through. We are hitting the 1272 support area and it will be interesting to see if it holds.
I'm actually going to call it a night. I had more trades than usual and came out with a small gain. It was good that I got in there and traded the plan even though the day wasn't ideal.
Daily Wrap Up
Today has been a big improvement on my recent trading. There are still elements that can be improved but its a step forward. Today saw me taking the trades that presented themselves when it was possible. I only traded at the s/r levels with confirmation in the way of the Tick and/or Volume.
In the first trade I was a touch too early for the long but I got in. I was fortunate to get my first target taken and left the second lot to be trailed. Even though I was skeptical about a bigger sized move higher I stuck with the position and let it have some space. It didn't work out but was a good attempt.
The second trade entry was good because I halved my position size as I missed the best entry on the move. The exit wasn't according to plan and resulted in a loss when it should have been a gain though. Beyond that it was good I got into the trade and I like the idea of cutting the position size if I need to extend my stop further.
The third trade was a tough one for me to take. Shorts seem to be the most difficult trades for me but I got in at a good spot and let it ride according to plan. We came down a few points and I noted 1274 would be a troublesome area to pass. We turned not long after reaching that but I was happy I stuck to the plan and let the second position stay. As we developed I could see good signs of moving higher so I took my position off.
For following my focus today I give myself a 'B'. I only traded at the s/r levels and stuck to the early game plan. When I recognized that we were struggling for buyers I took a short in anticipation of breaking the trend we had made. I kept my risk small and let positions run like I should.
It was a big improvement today because I traded the areas I should and I didn't hold back. Taking the positions when they present themselves has been something I have been having trouble with lately. This is a step forward into trading the way I should according to plan.
Trade 1a: 1.5 Win
Trade 1b: 1.0 Loss
Trade 2a: 0.5 Loss
Trade 3a: 1.0 Gain
Trade 3b: Break Even
Daily Result: 1.0 Gain
We have the Oil inventories at 10.35am today. Ordinarily I wouldn't pay as much attention to that but it seems the market is having a higher than usual reaction to oil prices right now. I'll keep my eyes open at that time and not enter any new trades between 10.20am and the Oil news.
The overnight market has seen a slow decline followed by a rise in the last few hours. We have seen some support come in around 1268 in the overnight market so that could be a level to watch. We are roughly at yesterdays close so the plan is to look for some possible strength to come in at 1271 but if that fails some strength at 1264 will be anticipated. If we end up beneath 1264 and don't quickly reverse then we could see further selling come in.
9:35 We have seen an open roughly the same as the close and we are hitting some resistance here at the 1278 level. The Tick has moved into the negative right now but only slightly. I am still looking for a move down to the 1271 area or 1264 for some strength to enter. Volume has been lighter than usual for the open right now.
9:47 I missed the entry at 1273.50 for a long off the 1272 support area. We have now reached the 1277 resistance area again. We have pulled back on the higher move with the Tick and made a volume extreme as we bounced from the support level. I'll keep patient here as things aren't looking great for buying right now.
9:56 I'm in a long trade at 1271.75 for a bounce from the 1271 area with my stop at 1270.25. Initial profit target is at 1273.25. Idea is the Tick failing to go lower as we moved lower on the ES. Volume extreme came in as well. I will exit early if we can't sustain a move above the zero line on the tick and move higher in price. I moved the stop up to 1270.75 to limit the risk on this as it is taking some time to move.
10:00 My profit target has been taken and I will trail the rest of the position. Stop is still at 1270.75 and may get taken here. Tick coming back into the zero area. Volume declined on the move higher. Second position out for a 1 point loss. It was an attempt and I was happy I stuck with my plan.
10:04 We still haven't moved strongly beyond the resistance area but the Tick is showing little interest from stocks for buying. Could today be a slow trend down day? Volume is certainly increasing on the downside which suggests the selling side is stronger. If we can't pull up at 1264 then things are not looking good.
10:11 I am in long again on this move but with only half position. I am in long at 1272.50 and my stop is at 1272. Reason for the half position is that the stop area is further away than I ordinarily like. Tick is pushing into the positive area and volume was declining as we moved further lower. I just took an exit for a half point loss as we were hitting the SMA on the 2 minute and moving further down with the Tick. I'll leave this move alone now until it sorts itself out. Has turned into a sideways stall right now.
10:21 We are now into the area I won't be trading as I wait for the oil figures. We moved higher not long after I exited my position which is a lesson to be learnt. We are heading back towards the 1276 resistance area right now. The Tick has made a feeble move into the positive right now and doesn't look very strong. Volume has shown an increase on the latest rise though which is a possible sign of further moves higher.
We appear at this point to be following the upward trend set by yesterday. If we make new highs I will look for a bounce off the 1276 area for an entry if it appears.
10:41 We had the Oil news released and it appears as though it hasn't really caused a stir. We have come back from the 1277 resistance area and the tick has moved back beneath the zero line. There was a volume extreme after the news but that is typical of news releases.
10:55 We came back to the 1272 resistance area and have now bounced. The Tick made a big move into the positive area and could pull an extreme. Volume has declined on the move lower and appears to be increasing on the higher move. I didn't enter long as I am still waiting for something solid to present itself. Right now we are stuck between 1278 and 1272.
11:09 I'm in short at 1276.50 for the Tick extreme on the buying side, meeting resistance and a close volume extreme. My stop is in at 1278 and initial profit target is at 1275.50. I will get out early if we can't sustain a move beneath the zero line on the Tick.
11:12 First profit target taken. Trailing the next lot. Need to be cautious around 1274 as it could bounce from there. Moved stop down to 1277.50 as a precaution, wouldn't like to make a loss on this move. This doesn't appear to be dropping like I would want to see just yet.
11:16 Moving stop on this down to 1277 as I want to limit the loss if we bounce from 1274. I don't think we should get up there if we are going lower anyhow. I'll bring in my offsetting strategy should we gain support at 1272 again. Volume hasn't been strong on the downside just yet either.
11:22 I am out the second position at 1276.50. Took it before hitting 1277 as we are showing good signs of bouncing here.
11:24 we are currently riding the fast EMA pretty well here although the size of the moves are getting smaller and smaller. We are currently battling on with an uptrend that just can't garner the strength to break the earlier highs yet. 1278.75 is the roof and we are trying to climb at this point. Volume is declining into this roof which is interesting. The Tick is swinging back and forth from one almost extreme to another. This could become a decent breakout if we make new highs. There is quite a roof of selling in its way though.
11:51 We have made a move out of the uptrend to the downside. I couldn't get on the trade as my platform was showing delayed data. We attempted the highs of the day for the second time but couldn't get the oomph needed to get through. We are hitting the 1272 support area and it will be interesting to see if it holds.
I'm actually going to call it a night. I had more trades than usual and came out with a small gain. It was good that I got in there and traded the plan even though the day wasn't ideal.
Daily Wrap Up
Today has been a big improvement on my recent trading. There are still elements that can be improved but its a step forward. Today saw me taking the trades that presented themselves when it was possible. I only traded at the s/r levels with confirmation in the way of the Tick and/or Volume.
In the first trade I was a touch too early for the long but I got in. I was fortunate to get my first target taken and left the second lot to be trailed. Even though I was skeptical about a bigger sized move higher I stuck with the position and let it have some space. It didn't work out but was a good attempt.
The second trade entry was good because I halved my position size as I missed the best entry on the move. The exit wasn't according to plan and resulted in a loss when it should have been a gain though. Beyond that it was good I got into the trade and I like the idea of cutting the position size if I need to extend my stop further.
The third trade was a tough one for me to take. Shorts seem to be the most difficult trades for me but I got in at a good spot and let it ride according to plan. We came down a few points and I noted 1274 would be a troublesome area to pass. We turned not long after reaching that but I was happy I stuck to the plan and let the second position stay. As we developed I could see good signs of moving higher so I took my position off.
For following my focus today I give myself a 'B'. I only traded at the s/r levels and stuck to the early game plan. When I recognized that we were struggling for buyers I took a short in anticipation of breaking the trend we had made. I kept my risk small and let positions run like I should.
It was a big improvement today because I traded the areas I should and I didn't hold back. Taking the positions when they present themselves has been something I have been having trouble with lately. This is a step forward into trading the way I should according to plan.
Trade 1a: 1.5 Win
Trade 1b: 1.0 Loss
Trade 2a: 0.5 Loss
Trade 3a: 1.0 Gain
Trade 3b: Break Even
Daily Result: 1.0 Gain
Total Comments 2
Comments
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Jay, good point you made about reducing size to allow for a wider stop. This is particularly useful when the market is more emotional near major turns too.
I've had to use the idea tonight as I'm looking at an ambitious trade where the market gaps above resistance which couldn't be overcome in the cash session. Wish I'd thought about it earlier though, would have saved me taking a loss on half my original position - doh! Good reading of the market action again mate, shame your trading platform crapped out when it did, that was some trend down you missed. Your 'roof of selling' was an astute analysis. Well done  |
 
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Thanks LP. The volatility this week has been crazy on the smaller time frames and causing me all sorts of trouble. Thanks for the support and compliments on my market analysis. Recently I have found myself analyzing the market well but unable to transfer that into actual trades. Will keep on pushing though.
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Recent Blog Entries by jasont
- Moving Journal (08-03-2008)
- Trade Setup For 1st August (08-01-2008)
- Trading for 31st July (08-01-2008)
- Trade Setup for July 31st (07-31-2008)
- Trading for 30th July (07-30-2008)
