Traders Laboratory Forums - Blogs - james_gsx http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/ Traders Laboratory (TL) is the leading online trading forum for day traders, swing traders, and active traders covering forex, stocks, futures, and options. en Thu, 09 Feb 2012 17:11:42 GMT vBulletin 30 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/images/styles/Traders/misc/rss.jpg Traders Laboratory Forums - Blogs - james_gsx http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/ YM, NQ, and CL analysis for Jan 11 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/7-ym-nq-cl-analysis-jan-11.html Mon, 14 Jan 2008 02:21:14 GMT Hopefully everyone had a good weekend and enjoyed the good football games. When I glanced through the news only one thing really stuck out at me.... Hopefully everyone had a good weekend and enjoyed the good football games. When I glanced through the news only one thing really stuck out at me. Retail sales probably stalled in December which doesn’t surprise me, but could cause further sell off in the markets this week. The Retail Sales report is at 8:15am ET Monday morning and that could have a big impact on the market. One could also say that news is already priced in, that wouldn’t come as a shock either after the recent sell off.

The YM has found support at 12,600, and there appears to be a lot of buying in those areas. Those who have been trading have noticed price reaches those lows then tends to rally. This could be a sign that longer term buyers are present or that the market simply isn’t ready to move that low. For now I will keep a bullish stance on the YM UNTIL that level is broken.



One of the main reasons I remain bullish on the YM is because of the banking sector. The banking sector currently has a big impact on the rest of the market. The sector found support last week and thus found plenty of buyers. I think we could see a bounce to $90 from here. I also wouldn’t be surprised for price to retrace through that wick and possibly retest the support. Overall, I am bullish on this sector.





The NQ continues to find support above 1900. As I have stated in the past my target remains at 1850 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see price test resistance at 2,000 before heading back to 1850.



Now onto my favorite market this far, CL. Last week the $95 support area was broken and we haven’t seen a single bullish candle since the spinning top at $100. There has also been a surge in volume during the sell off compared to a drop in volume during the rally. This is very bearish in my opinion. New resistance is at $95 and my target is now $90.





That’s it for today, good trading and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Thanks.
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]]> james_gsx http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/7-ym-nq-cl-analysis-jan-11.html YM, NQ, and CL analysis for Jan 10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/4-ym-nq-cl-analysis-jan-10.html Fri, 11 Jan 2008 07:12:56 GMT Sorry for writing the blog so late. I was busy all night and finally got a chance to sit down and do this. Today proved to be another volatile... Sorry for writing the blog so late. I was busy all night and finally got a chance to sit down and do this.

Today proved to be another volatile day. Ben Bernanke came out and announced that deeper rate cuts will most likely be needed (Story) as the economy is slowing. This initially drove markets higher only to sell off, then rally again. Tonight Merrill Lynch announced they will take down $15 billion mortgage write down which is double the initial estimate(story). Overall this is bad news, and I think this is just the beginning.

Today provided some good trading setups if you took your profits fast enough. You have to adapt everyday and take the opportunities the market gives you. That’s the lesson I’m learning every day, that not one day is the same but the opportunities are still there. You have to keep a clear head and move swiftly from one trade to the next.

Let’s start with the YM. Between July and October the YM fell from an all time high around 14,200 all the way down to 12,800 – back up to 14,400 then down to where we finished today around 12,800. What does this mean? It means we have a double top formation and the support line has broken. Conventional wisdom would tell us that our next target would be around 11,600. I don’t necessarily think it will hit that target, but with the recent volatility I could see it happening over the next year. Remember it won’t be a straight decline to that level. Bear markets are tough to trade because you will get huge sell offs followed by huge rallies. Of course this double top could fail, but until that happens I will continue to use the 13,000 area as resistance.



Similar story for the Naz, the long wick on the spinning top tells me there’s a fight between the bulls and the bears. In order for me to have confidence to go long on the NQ I would want to see more demand with stronger conviction. That doesn’t mean I don’t think we will test 2,000 again, I think that’s entirely possible. But my target of 1850 still stands.



Today CL broke the $95 support level along with a trend line. My next target for CL is around $90. I think we will fall back to $90 and possibly even $85 before rallying past $100.



I hope everyone has a great Friday and good trading. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email or leave a comment. Thanks for reading.
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]]> james_gsx http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/4-ym-nq-cl-analysis-jan-10.html My daily YM, ES, CL, and NQ analysis http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/james_gsx/2-my-daily-ym-es-cl-nq.html Thu, 10 Jan 2008 06:20:44 GMT I thought it would be nice to start posting my daily analysis on the YM, ES, NQ, and CL here. I have a blog that I update daily (or try to) and this... I thought it would be nice to start posting my daily analysis on the YM, ES, NQ, and CL here. I have a blog that I update daily (or try to) and this will basically have the same thing. Why do I post here as well as my blog site? Quite simple, there are new members here and it might be helpful, chances are they'll never hear of my blog so I hope I can contribute by posting here as well. I am not an expert trader like some, but I do feel that my TA skills are good enough to help others. Don't trade based off this blog, but let it be a reference to what you see. If our views are different, go with what you see. If they are the same, great. I won't be held liable if you make a trade based off my blog and lose money. We have several threads with the same charts but the aren't updated quite as regularly as this. So if you read it and enjoy it, keep reading. If not, that's fine. Or if you have any suggestions, I'm very open....

Overall the market was choppy today; but there was still plenty of money to be made. Screen time is essential with trading. Today was the day that screen time paid off, along with the ability to control your emotions and not expect anything from the market. You had to take your trades and let them work, if they turned out to be a profit or loss was irrelevant, as long as you were following your plan and following sound money management rules.

I want to start off with the NQ as I believe it is the most interesting setup right now. Yesterday the critical 2,000 support level was broken; which is obviously very bearish. I pointed out my next target would be 1950. That target was hit today and turned out to be near the LOD (low of the day). After 1950 was hit price rallied and formed a nice hammer. Normally I would jump at the opportunity to take a hammer on support, but there are a few reasons why I will NOT be taking this trade. The first one is the risk reward. Remember the support at 2,000? Well, due to a change of polarity 2,000 is now resistance, so the close around 1979 means our long position would only have roughly 21pts to work with. The potential risk would be our stop below the bottom of the wick, which is under 1950. I am not willing to risk over 30pts to profit 20, which is not a good risk reward ratio for me. There are several ways to take this trade and none of them are right or wrong, but that is how I would take it according to my plan – which also means that’s why I won’t be taking this trade.




Next up is the YM, I don’t really know what this candle is called but it shows buyers were present around 12,600. Interestingly enough 12,600 is the low from the 400pt decline on February 27, 2007. I find it crazy to believe that we are already trading back at those levels, but we are and buyers were definitely present. Looking ahead tomorrow I see 12,800 as a potential level to short as that is now new resistance. I think we might touch that tomorrow and could see another bounce in the 12,500 – 12,600 range before going lower.




Last but not least, CL. There are two inverted hammers in a row on the $95 support line, along with a wedge forming. The wicks on the hammers tell me that price has tried to move higher twice but lacked any conviction so the breakouts failed. I will wait for some form of confirmation before making any trades.



Hope this helps, if you have any questions feel free to e-mail me.
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