With Oil getting crushed in the last few minutes, I'm wondering if there's a play to be had selling something like GBP/JPY. Going to look at some correlations now and see if that could work. Would certainly be stepping in front of a moving train a bit, but that's how I like it

edit: actually, having had a quick squint, it's not performing as well as I would hope, so may look to play this another way.

GammaJammer

So a few weak stops got done in EUR/USD post the ZEW (German sentiment weak, overall a bit more mixed). Then Franz starts talking about having a feeling the ECB are going to hike and boom! - 1.56 trading again.

Have had three different mates at three different banks now remind me that 1.5650 ish is where the 50% fibo retrace comes in for the move down from the all time highs to the recent sub 1.53 lows. Price action in last couple of days around the 38.2 level has already been interesting....

GammaJammer

EUR/USD - Right idea, timing a bit off. Might have been better expressed through options. My fault. Although in my defence I do prefer to have lower conviction trades on only when I'm there to try and gauge market sentiment, especially when I put them on on a busy afternoon, in effect 'shooting from the hip' when I'm juggling a ton of other things. Sometimes I come back and, in the cold light of day, the reasoning I was basing my trade on simply isn't there. This was definitely one of those occasions...

GammaJammer

Having taken another look at the situation this morning, and in light of the fact that I had a few bits and pieces to take care of before I made my way belatedly into the office, I left a close stop with boys on the desk which was duly triggered by the time I came in (at 1.5615).

Looks like options expiries both sides today, and can see the1.5650's acting as a bit of a magnet this afternoon. Doesn't feel particularly bid right here, but neither does it feel particularly like it wants...

GammaJammer

But indeed. Don't forget base camp is probably used as a resting place for travellers on the way down a mountain as well as on the way up (cheesy metaphor I know). And thus, while I shall be watching carefully this morning, I won't rule out a short eurusd position being wrong until I have some more substantive confirmation that this 1.5550/75 area is now strong support.

Given the break on Friday, I would expect model accounts to come in and buy eurusd this morning on or around the...

GammaJammer