Sterling - buy the number, sell the fact?

The old market adage of "Buy the rumour, sell the fact" holds true more often than you would think. And drilling down into the seemingly stellar UK retail sales numbers this morning I'm wondering if this phenomenon might be about to rear it's head. With enough people talking about the large component that's food and weather related in this months number, I reckon that today's brutal move post the numbers could well be overdone.

With this in mind, and wanting as always to marry a fundamental, market positioning AND technical view together, I feel long EUR/GBP is a better way to play this scenario. Happy to get involved at current levels (ard 0.7870), adding lightly if lower (0.7840/50?), with stop etc dependant on your timeframe and risk appetite, but could maybe do worse than stick it around 0.7830, which is the 38.2 retrace of the year's move. Support also seems to come in nicely here. Chart(s) attached.

GJ

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