Paper Trading Results
It's the end of what has been a busy week for me at my "day job". More importantly, last night was the last night in the paper trading series I had laid out for myself (my "night job"). I had decided to paper trade -- at least for an initial period -- for 12 days. This matched the number of days I had paper traded in my last experiment.
I am quite pleased with the results of this trial period. Here is a summary:
# Trades: 23
# Wins: 21
# Losses: 2
% Wins: 91.3%
Avg. Trade Size (Pips): 16.8
Avg. Win Size (Pips): 16.6
Avg. Loss Size (Pips): 19.5
Pips Won: 348.1
Pips Lost: 39
Net P/L (Pips): 309.1
Maximum Losing streak: 1
Maximum Winning streak: 8
I still have not finished my backtesting (!), but what I can say is that the above results are better than the results I've seen in backtesting so far. So far, my backtesting results indicate a 76.2% win rate, but I feel as if I should have more backtesting results before I can draw any statistically valid conclusions.
I also want to review the log I have kept of all of my paper trades. I am very glad that I took a screen shot of each and every trade (along with some context), but I have not yet had the time to review these in detail to see what patterns they may turn up.
But again, overall, I'm quite encouraged.
I am quite pleased with the results of this trial period. Here is a summary:
# Trades: 23
# Wins: 21
# Losses: 2
% Wins: 91.3%
Avg. Trade Size (Pips): 16.8
Avg. Win Size (Pips): 16.6
Avg. Loss Size (Pips): 19.5
Pips Won: 348.1
Pips Lost: 39
Net P/L (Pips): 309.1
Maximum Losing streak: 1
Maximum Winning streak: 8
I still have not finished my backtesting (!), but what I can say is that the above results are better than the results I've seen in backtesting so far. So far, my backtesting results indicate a 76.2% win rate, but I feel as if I should have more backtesting results before I can draw any statistically valid conclusions.
I also want to review the log I have kept of all of my paper trades. I am very glad that I took a screen shot of each and every trade (along with some context), but I have not yet had the time to review these in detail to see what patterns they may turn up.
But again, overall, I'm quite encouraged.
Total Comments 2
Comments
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Hi, FX_Cowboy, I was wondering what you would considering to be a good win ratio. Your backtesting is amazing, you only have 1 loss! But why is it in absolute size greater than your winning trades? Are you using wide stops and small targets?
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zeon,
Actually, with my paper trading, I had two losses, and I saw more during the backtesting I did. Nevertheless, both series were encouraging. A "good ratio" is only part of the story of course (average win amount and average loss amount must also be part of the equation), but if the strategy as a whole provides a consistently profitable outcome over time, then it may be worth trading. That's what really matters. (I'm quoting DbPhoenix here, by the way, as well as following his prescribed path for developing a setup. See his blog for more details.) My paper trading results were unusually good -- better in fact than my backtesting results, and better than the results I have had since I upped my trade amount. With this last series, I have too few results as yet to come to conclusions, but so far I believe the backtesting results offer a better indication of the longer term probabilities. The loss average during the paper trading series was statistically on the high side compared to losses (and wins) in my backtesting results, and the results I've seen since then. My backtesting results showed average loss amounts nearly equal to average win amounts, and I anticipate that those results are also more indicative of what I can expect to see in the future. |
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Recent Blog Entries by FX_Cowboy
- Trading Results - Series II (06-15-2008)
- Trading Results - Series I (04-18-2008)
- A first look at actual trading results (04-13-2008)
- Backtesting Results (03-09-2008)
- Paper Trading Results (03-07-2008)
