A first look at actual trading results

Based on my results in the Backtesting and Paper Trading series, I decided to up my trade size somewhat and see if I could duplicate my results. While I cannot claim to have had the same results as during my Paper Trading series, the results so far indicate that the setup continues to be profitable over time. Overall, I continue to be satisfied with the results, although there was an anomaly in this series that may have affected the outcome.

For the first eleven nights of trading, the summary results are as follows:

Total trades: 20
Winners: 14
Losers: 6
% Winners: 70%
Avg. Win: 17.5
Avg. Loss: 20.0
Avg. Trade Size (pips): 18.3
Pips Won: 245.7
Pips Lost: 119.9
Net P/L (pips): 125.8
Max Winning Streak: 6
Max Losing Streak: 2

These results, combined with the Backtesting and Paper Trading results, continue to give me confidence that this is an edge worth pursuing.

During the series, I inadvertently allowed a change to creep into the setup, which I did not correct until the last four days. I had initially defined the trading times to be the two hours between 2:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. EST. Those were (originally) the two hours corresponding to the time when the market normally begins to get active in London. However, when we (in the U.S.) instituted Daylight Savings Time, I did not adjust those hours. I only later realized that the U.K. does not adhere to Daylight Savings Time, so I was effectively an hour off until I made the adjustment. It may only be coincidence that the results improved after I made the adjustment -- but maybe not. In my mind at least, the trading times do hold some significance in terms of the reliability of the setup.

I am planning to run this series for another week, and then review the results again.