The purpose of this blog is to provide a comprehensive compilation of articles and posts which have been of great help to me in the past, or that I find very insightful, wise or containing a great deal of useful knowledge.
The original author of the text will be mentioned, so that those who are interested in the subject can explore it deeper.
The blog will consist out of several categories, some more theoretical, other containing charts and analysis.
Finally, this blog is, in a way, a continuation of the journal
I started in the public section on another site.
The original author of the text will be mentioned, so that those who are interested in the subject can explore it deeper.
The blog will consist out of several categories, some more theoretical, other containing charts and analysis.
Finally, this blog is, in a way, a continuation of the journal
I started in the public section on another site.
June 2008: The bears are back
May 19 looks like it set the end of the bear market rally. Having said that, by the beginning of June there was still not much downside coming, but thinks were definitely turning. Yesterday June 26, we have touched the January lows on the DOW Industrials, but it's remarkable how well the NQ is holding up. The ES is still above the March lows as well, albeit a whole lot closer.
Today, June 27, should be interesting. There have not been much signs of capitulation yet. Yesterday's big down day closed near the low, at the opposite end of where it opened. Bears are firmly in control for the time being.
On Wednesday, the Fed left the rates unchanged, as expected and the market didn't react spectacularly, except for the usual volatility whipsaw. The next scheduled meeting is August 5. After that there are only three left: September, October and December.
I've added a chart of the DOW Industrials longer term view (5 years, instead of 2years) and a chart of the DOW transports to complete the picture. While the Industrials were moving up from their March lows to 13130, the transports peaked into new highs, but made what now looks like a nice head & shoulders at the previous high from couple of years back. Despite that many people consider the transports to be the leaders, Dow Theory states that if one market makes new highs but the other not, there is no confirmation. Without confirmation, the trend has not changed.
Today, June 27, should be interesting. There have not been much signs of capitulation yet. Yesterday's big down day closed near the low, at the opposite end of where it opened. Bears are firmly in control for the time being.
On Wednesday, the Fed left the rates unchanged, as expected and the market didn't react spectacularly, except for the usual volatility whipsaw. The next scheduled meeting is August 5. After that there are only three left: September, October and December.
I've added a chart of the DOW Industrials longer term view (5 years, instead of 2years) and a chart of the DOW transports to complete the picture. While the Industrials were moving up from their March lows to 13130, the transports peaked into new highs, but made what now looks like a nice head & shoulders at the previous high from couple of years back. Despite that many people consider the transports to be the leaders, Dow Theory states that if one market makes new highs but the other not, there is no confirmation. Without confirmation, the trend has not changed.
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Recent Blog Entries by firewalker
- Random thought... (11-22-2008)
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- Analysis of November 6: scaling out & exits (11-14-2008)
- Another one for the history books... (10-24-2008)
- The Big Bear (10-24-2008)
