Traders Laboratory - Professional Traders Community - Blogs http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/ Traders Laboratory (TL) is the leading online trading forum for day traders, swing traders, and active investors covering forex, stocks, futures, and options. en Sun, 14 Mar 2010 12:55:49 GMT vBulletin 30 http://traderslaboratory.com/forums/images/trad_lab/misc/rss.jpg Traders Laboratory - Professional Traders Community - Blogs http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/ Currencies Higher; Commodity Bloc Lags http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/859-currencies-higher-commodity-bloc-lags.html Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:26:59 GMT The markets have picked up in European trade, with currencies broadly bid against the buck. * *MORNING SLICES** Image:... The markets have picked up in European trade, with currencies broadly bid against the buck.

MORNING SLICES



FUNDYS

However, it is the major currencies that have jumped in front, with the normally better bid commodity bloc lagging behind. There has been no apparent direct catalyst for the moves, with most citing the price action as flow based decent stop losses being triggered following a multi day consolidation. We have seen a great deal of major/commodity selling over the past several weeks, and perhaps investors are beginning to look to book profits on long commodity positions given the extremity of the moves. One potential explanation for the lag in the commodity currencies are the ongoing rumors of a potential tightening from China, which ultimately would weigh most heavily on the Australian economy and Australian Dollar.

Relative Performance Versus USD on Friday (As of 10:30GMT) –

1) SWISSIE +0.89%
2) EURO +0.72%
3) STERLING +0.64%
4) KIWI +0.40%
5) AUSSIE +0.29%
6) YEN +0.24%
7) CAD +0.17%

Another noticeable mover on the day has been the Eur/Chf cross, which has broken down through some major consolidation support just under 1.4600. This cross rate has barely moved in recent weeks and many pay close attention to any unusual moves, particularly to the downside, given the SNB’s reputation for getting involved. It appears that the Swiss central bank has been less comfortable with a stronger currency when the USD is offered, and today’s USD bearish price action could be just the catalyst for some sudden and aggressive SNB intervention.

Elsewhere, two articles in European newspapers are getting attention on Friday, with one in the UK Telegraph warning of the looming debt crisis, while the other, from an Austrian newspaper, outlining prospective bailout deal for Greece involving Germany and France. Some secondary data released on the session has not hurt the Euro’s rally, with Eurozone industrial production coming in stronger than expected.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to Canada employment data at 13:30GMT (16k and 8.3% expected), also accompanied by the heavily watched US retail sales print (-0.2% expected). University of Michigan confidence (74 expected) then follows at 14:55GMT, followed by business inventories (0.2% expected) at 15:00GMT. US equity futures point to a slightly firmer open, while commodities are well bid.

GRAPHIC REWIND



Read the rest of this article at www.DailyFX.com ]]> DailyFX http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/859-currencies-higher-commodity-bloc-lags.html Long EURUSD @ $1.3630 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/z_strategy/858-long-eurusd-1-3630.html Fri, 12 Mar 2010 13:25:04 GMT EURUSD (http://tinyurl.com/ydrp99v) cracks past $1.3700 resistance which has been in play since mid-February to take it too a test of $1.3800.... EURUSD cracks past $1.3700 resistance which has been in play since mid-February to take it too a test of $1.3800. Currently eased off this level but there is an opportunity for a challenge to $1.4250 and into the desired profit target zone of $1.4400-1.4500.



Due diligence as always,
Z_S ]]> Z_Strategy http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/z_strategy/858-long-eurusd-1-3630.html Stay Lines http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/zdo/857-stay-lines.html Thu, 11 Mar 2010 17:29:43 GMT Line Changes: Moved Active Red entry line and dark red trendline down for contract rollover. Position Changes: None. Flat Order Changes:... Line Changes:
Moved Active Red entry line and dark red trendline down for contract rollover.

Position Changes:
None. Flat

Order Changes:
Canceled Mar orders
Sell stops 25% net allocated at 10377 Jun
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]]> zdo http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/zdo/857-stay-lines.html SSI: Retail NZDUSD Shorts Jump 15% Following RBNZ Interest Rate Decision http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/856-ssi-retail-nzdusd-shorts-jump-15.html Thu, 11 Mar 2010 15:40:24 GMT FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics: Image:... FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:





Intraday Highlight:

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.08 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 6.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.7% higher than yesterday and 33.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.5% stronger than yesterday and 15.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.31 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.9% higher than yesterday and 6.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 26.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% stronger than yesterday and 18.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.19 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 4.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.2% higher than yesterday and 15.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.0% stronger than yesterday and 7.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.48 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.0% higher than yesterday and 6.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 36.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 14.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.71 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 22.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 12.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.71 as nearly 79% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.70 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 15.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.5% lower than yesterday and 4.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% weaker than yesterday and 30.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.25 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.21 as 76% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 136.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.0% higher than yesterday and 0.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 64.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.58 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 5.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 38.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 11.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.08 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 6.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.7% higher than yesterday and 33.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.5% stronger than yesterday and 15.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.


How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.


Discuss trading strategies with the SSI and other sentiment readings in the DailyFX forum! ]]> DailyFX http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/856-ssi-retail-nzdusd-shorts-jump-15.html Stay Lines http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/zdo/854-stay-lines.html Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:19:48 GMT Line Changes: Tentative green drawn Position Changes: None. Still flat. Order Changes: Sell stops moved up to 10436 Mar. Comments: Line Changes:
Tentative green drawn

Position Changes:
None. Still flat.

Order Changes:
Sell stops moved up to 10436 Mar.

Comments:
May be moving 'blog' onto a regular thread around the equinox. If stay here or not, will also discuss, disclose more about the whole of the 'campaign' then
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]]> zdo http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/zdo/854-stay-lines.html Oil, Gold May Decline as Monthly US Deficit Hits Record http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/853-oil-gold-may-decline-monthly-us.html Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:19:20 GMT Oil and gold prices may decline amid expectations for a sharp increase in borrowing costs as the US Treasury’s monthly budget statement shows the... Oil and gold prices may decline amid expectations for a sharp increase in borrowing costs as the US Treasury’s monthly budget statement shows the largest monthly shortfall since records began nearly 33 years ago.

Commodities - Energy

Oil May Break Support as Monthly US Deficit Hits Record

Crude Oil (WTI) $81.25 -$0.24 -0.29%

Prices have pulled back from resistance at $82.23 to find support at a rising trend line established from the bottom in early February, with a break lower exposing $77.53. The percent-change correlation between the WTI contract and the MSCI World Stock Index has strengthened to 0.78, reflecting the increasing influence of risk trends. European shares and US index futures are going nowhere fast, leaving crude without a clear catalyst heading into the Wall St open. The US Treasury’s monthly budget statement may prove to be the most significant item on the calendar, with expectations calling for a monthly shortfall of -$222 billion in February – the largest since records began nearly 33 years ago. This send crude lower as investors bet that the unprecedented borrowing that will be required to finance the US’ public deficit will send borrowing costs sharply higher, snuffing crude demand along with overall economic growth. The US Department of Energy’s Weekly crude inventory and MBA Mortgage Applications figures are also on the docket.



Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver to See Sellers Return on US Debt Outcome

Gold $1122.73 +$0.88 +0.08%
Gold prices found support at a rising trend line established from February’s swing low and rebounded to re-test support-turned-resistance at $1125.13. As with oil, the US monthly budget figures may weigh heavily on prices if they prove to fuel expectations of a sharp increase in borrowing costs that bears down on inflation. A break below the trend line will initially target the $1100 figure.

Silver $17.31 +$0.06 +0.32%
The outlook for silver is largely in line with its more expensive counterpart, with traders’ eyes trained on the US monthly budget statement. Prices have rebounded from support just below the $17.00 to re-test resistance near the previous swing high at $17.51, with a turn lower form here initially looking to challenge $16.86.



Read more: DailyFX - Oil, Gold May Decline as Monthly US Deficit Hits Record

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://forexstream.dailyfx.com

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM. ]]> DailyFX http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/853-oil-gold-may-decline-monthly-us.html Stay Lines http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/zdo/852-stay-lines.html Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:14:25 GMT Line Changes: Extended Active red entry line out at same angle. Added tentative green stay line. Extended dark red trend line again. Position... Line Changes:
Extended Active red entry line out at same angle.
Added tentative green stay line.
Extended dark red trend line again.

Position Changes:
None. Still flat.

Order Changes:
Moved entry sell stops up to 10393

Comments:
"Dow 19000 and still going down" obx
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]]> zdo http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/zdo/852-stay-lines.html Pound Declines on Soft Retail Sales, House Prices Data and Bank Downgrade Scare http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/851-pound-declines-soft-retail-sales-house.html Tue, 09 Mar 2010 15:34:20 GMT The British Pound declined against the spectrum of major currencies in overnight trade after a disappointing set of house price and retail sales... The British Pound declined against the spectrum of major currencies in overnight trade after a disappointing set of house price and retail sales figures as well as rumors that Moody’s may downgrade the bonds of several UK banks.

Key Overnight Developments

• UK House Prices, Retail Sales Disappoint in February
• Australian Business Confidence Surges to 7-Year High
• WSJ Article: Moody’s May Downgrade UK Bank Debt


Critical Levels



The Euro was little changed in overnight trade, continuing to consolidate in a narrow 40-pip range below 1.3640 to the US Dollar that emerged in the second half of the US session. The British Pound declined 0.5 percent against the greenback after a disappointing set of house price and retail sales figures (see below). A Wall Street Journal article claiming that Moody’s may downgrade the bonds of some UK banks after the government winds down its financial-sector bailout programs also encouraged GBP selling. We remain short EURUSD at 1.4881 and GBPUSD at 1.5765.

Asia Session Highlights



UK House Prices stumbled in February according to a survey of real estate agents from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), with only 17 percent of respondents reporting rising property prices – the smallest in six months. Economists predicted a 30 percent outcome ahead of the release. RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf said, “The magnitude of the gains going forward is likely to continue to ease, reflecting the fact that new supply coming onto the market is starting to outstrip fresh demand.” Separately, UK Retail Sales rose 2.2 percent in the year to February according to a report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC). BRC Director General Stephen Robertson said, “Despite appearances, these results are not that strong [because] the growth is compared with very weak figures a year ago.” Stephenson added that although “consumer confidence is certainly up…unemployment is rising again [and] its clear customers are still cautious.”

A gauge of Australian Business Confidence matched a seven-year high in February according to a report from the National Australia Bank. The details of the report looked broadly encouraging, with gains in the headline figure driven by strong improvements in forward orders and export sales. However, trade balance figures released last week suggest that much of the resilience in sentiment likely owes to buoyant Asian (specifically, Chinese) demand for minerals such as iron ore. China’s recent attempts to clamp down on lending growth amid fears that the south Asian giant will overheat may bode ill for the mining sector, hinting that the current resilience in business confidence may prove fleeting.

Euro Session: What to Expect



Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index is expected to show the annual pace of inflation held at 1 percent in February, matching a 14-month high recorded in the previous month. The outcome will also mark the third consecutive month of positive price growth and comes a day ahead of the monetary policy announcement from the Swiss National Bank. While a rate hike is surely out of the question, SNB chief Philipp Hildebrand and company may now have room to drop their now-familiar refrain about lingering deflation risk and possibly even address the time frame for withdrawing their policy of intervention in currency markets to “prevent any excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc against the Euro.”


Read more: DailyFX - Pound Declines on Soft Retail Sales, House Prices Data and Bank Downgrade Scare

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://forexstream.dailyfx.com

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.
]]> DailyFX http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/851-pound-declines-soft-retail-sales-house.html Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 03.08.10 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/850-forex-weekly-trading-forecast-03-08.html Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:10:08 GMT US Dollar Weathers a Rebound in Risk Appetite, But for How Long?... US Dollar Weathers a Rebound in Risk Appetite, But for How Long?
Euro at Impasse versus US Dollar: Further Losses or Sharp Bounce?
Japanese Yen at Risk On Risk Appetite and Expected Monetary Easing
British Pound May Consolidate After Falling to 10-Month Low
Swiss Franc Remains Tied to Trends Driving Other Currencies
Canadian Dollar Eyes Parity with the Dollar as Labor Data Approaches
Australian Dollar Poised to Test Major Highs on S&P 500 Rallies
New Zealand Dollar To Underperform Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision



DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Read more: DailyFX - Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 03.08.10
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]]> DailyFX http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/850-forex-weekly-trading-forecast-03-08.html U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged As Economy Losses 36K Jobs http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/849-u-s-unemployment-rate-unchanged-economy.html Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:07:06 GMT The U.S. economy lost another 36,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate held at 9.7% according to the non-farm payroll report. Economists... The U.S. economy lost another 36,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate held at 9.7% according to the non-farm payroll report. Economists were forecasting a loss of 68,00 and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.8%, as severe weather was expected to have forced some businesses to close.

The U.S. economy lost another 36,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate held at 9.7% according to the non-farm payroll report. Economists were forecasting a loss of 68,00 and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.8%, as severe weather was expected to have forced some businesses to close. We may not see the impact of the crippling conditions until companies realize the impact of home bound Americans on revenue levels. A 1,000 rise in manufacturing hires is a positive sign that the sector continues to be a source of growth for the economy as a loss of 15,000 was predicted. A depressed housing market remains a drag on the labor market as the economy shed another 64,000 construction jobs. An unexpected 7.6% drop in pending home sales in January shows that the sector is struggling to sustain demand, despite the continuation of the government tax credit. Tight credit markets have made it formidable for buyers to secure the necessary funding which should continue to lead to a protracted recovery. Meanwhile, state and local governments continue to face budget shortfalls as Federal aid dries up, leading to a net government job loss of 18,000. Declining tax revenues could lead to more cuts going forward. Markets have reacted positively to the data with the USD/JPY (a proxy for risk appetite) soaring over 80 pips following the release. However, another month of job losses isn’t a glowing endorsement for the U.S. economy which was expected to have started generating sustainable job growth by this time.



DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Read more: DailyFX - U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged As Economy Losses 36K Jobs ]]> DailyFX http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dailyfx/849-u-s-unemployment-rate-unchanged-economy.html