The purpose of this is to serve as a closet, or attic, or self-storage facility. A place for me to store what I don't want to lose, all in one place, partly for me, but largely for those who may be interested in what I think about market stuff and trading stuff.
I've reserved the right to moderate comments. Assuming that this works, the point of it is to keep the blog on task as much as possible. Substantive questions will be answered, if I can, but good wishes and so forth will not be posted, not because I don't appreciate them, but because all of that is a lot for newcomers to wade through after a while, so please don't be insulted if you don't see your comment posted.
The first post is a link to a preview of my book. This may be of no interest to you whatsoever, but I do encourage those who are interested to at least look over it before plunking down any money for something that may be of little or no use to them.
Good trading.
I've reserved the right to moderate comments. Assuming that this works, the point of it is to keep the blog on task as much as possible. Substantive questions will be answered, if I can, but good wishes and so forth will not be posted, not because I don't appreciate them, but because all of that is a lot for newcomers to wade through after a while, so please don't be insulted if you don't see your comment posted.
The first post is a link to a preview of my book. This may be of no interest to you whatsoever, but I do encourage those who are interested to at least look over it before plunking down any money for something that may be of little or no use to them.
Good trading.
For Mar 26
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Looks like we open in the middle of yesterday's volume range, so we follow the drill: buy support, sell resistance. First resistance is the top of the range, second resistance is the range extension.
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Mid-day:
0945 A subtle TD on the 5s at 0941 as price hits what may be pre-mkt resistance. An aggressive short.
1000 New Home Sales. Price rejects support but no TD. Volume to the upside is unremarkable. Even so, if short, and if one were certain of support, this would be a potential exit,
1010 And back to the midpoint.
1025 Forming a hinge of sorts (it’s not quite “filled with price”) at, of course, the midpoint, with the accompanying decline in volume.
1035 Another test of support. A moderate TD on the 5s in that the T is the same but price is lower. No long trade here unless very aggressive.
1045 Another test, but there’s no demand here. Volume was heavy on the downside, and shouldn’t be. Doesn’t have to be a higher low, but the volume pattern should suggest buying pressure, not selling pressure. If still short, this is a good reason to stay in.
1050 At yesterday’s low. No TD to speak of. But selling appears to be done. Therefore, an aggressive long could be taken here. If short, a potential exit.
1055 Supply line, such as it is, is broken. If still short, another potential exit.
1100 And back above the first support level.
1155 And back to the midpoint.
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EOD
1500 At resistance, finally. There’s a slight TD here between 1500 and 1501, and the T slides dramatically during the 7 or 8 minutes that price spends up here. Volume subsides dramatically as well.
1515 And back toward the midpoint.
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Looks like we open in the middle of yesterday's volume range, so we follow the drill: buy support, sell resistance. First resistance is the top of the range, second resistance is the range extension.
.
.
Mid-day:
0945 A subtle TD on the 5s at 0941 as price hits what may be pre-mkt resistance. An aggressive short.
1000 New Home Sales. Price rejects support but no TD. Volume to the upside is unremarkable. Even so, if short, and if one were certain of support, this would be a potential exit,
1010 And back to the midpoint.
1025 Forming a hinge of sorts (it’s not quite “filled with price”) at, of course, the midpoint, with the accompanying decline in volume.
1035 Another test of support. A moderate TD on the 5s in that the T is the same but price is lower. No long trade here unless very aggressive.
1045 Another test, but there’s no demand here. Volume was heavy on the downside, and shouldn’t be. Doesn’t have to be a higher low, but the volume pattern should suggest buying pressure, not selling pressure. If still short, this is a good reason to stay in.
1050 At yesterday’s low. No TD to speak of. But selling appears to be done. Therefore, an aggressive long could be taken here. If short, a potential exit.
1055 Supply line, such as it is, is broken. If still short, another potential exit.
1100 And back above the first support level.
1155 And back to the midpoint.
.
.
EOD
1500 At resistance, finally. There’s a slight TD here between 1500 and 1501, and the T slides dramatically during the 7 or 8 minutes that price spends up here. Volume subsides dramatically as well.
1515 And back toward the midpoint.
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Total Comments 4
Comments
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great comments today as always.
Clarification, does TD mean Tickq Divergence? thanks for your efforts posting and the charts they are helping me see & use Sup & Res in a different way. JT |
 
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Yes, it does. If one hadn't begun at the beginning, which gets farther away every day, this might not be clear. Thanks for asking.
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Hi db, I have a couple questions on this posting:
At 1045, you say "Another test, but there’s no demand here. Volume was heavy on the downside, and shouldn’t be. Doesn’t have to be a higher low, but the volume pattern should suggest buying pressure, not selling pressure. If still short, this is a good reason to stay in." I just need some clarification here: do you say volume "shouldn't" be heavy on the downside because price is at support and therefore you would be looking for a long. And you see that since there is heavy volume on the downside then that potential long would have to be nulled for the time being? Also at 1050, you say "At yesterday’s low. No TD to speak of. But selling appears to be done. Therefore, an aggressive long could be taken here. If short, a potential exit." How did you come to the conclusion that the selling "appears to be done." Is it because of the re-test with price being rejected higher very quickly? Or that because there was very heavy volume to the downside you would expect price to go further lower but it didn't do that? Thanks. |
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A. Yes. If looking for a long, you don't want to see continuing heavy volume on the downside. At the very least, you want to see lighter volume on a further test, if any, such as at 1050, though by then you will likely also want to see a break of the TL.
B. Yes to both. Keep in mind that these were done in real time while watching the price and the volume bars move. I saw that volume was lighter as price tested 1807 at 1048 the first time, then much heavier as it tested it again two minutes later, at which point the volume subsided dramatially and price bounced, waffled for a couple of minutes, then never looked back (or at least for an hour). If one isn't watching all this in real time, then it's necessary to get into the bar with a shorter bar interval to find out what's going on in there. 5s ought to do it. though one can go down to a single tick if he wants to. This isn't a method but a process. |
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