The purpose of this is to serve as a closet, or attic, or self-storage facility. A place for me to store what I don't want to lose, all in one place, partly for me, but largely for those who may be interested in what I think about market stuff and trading stuff.
I've reserved the right to moderate comments. Assuming that this works, the point of it is to keep the blog on task as much as possible. Substantive questions will be answered, if I can, but good wishes and so forth will not be posted, not because I don't appreciate them, but because all of that is a lot for newcomers to wade through after a while, so please don't be insulted if you don't see your comment posted.
The first post is a link to a preview of my book. This may be of no interest to you whatsoever, but I do encourage those who are interested to at least look over it before plunking down any money for something that may be of little or no use to them.
Good trading.
I've reserved the right to moderate comments. Assuming that this works, the point of it is to keep the blog on task as much as possible. Substantive questions will be answered, if I can, but good wishes and so forth will not be posted, not because I don't appreciate them, but because all of that is a lot for newcomers to wade through after a while, so please don't be insulted if you don't see your comment posted.
The first post is a link to a preview of my book. This may be of no interest to you whatsoever, but I do encourage those who are interested to at least look over it before plunking down any money for something that may be of little or no use to them.
Good trading.
For Mar 25
.
.
Pre-mkt As I pointed out at the end of the day yesterday, volume appeared to be picking up to the downside, but it was actually the opposite. That it appeared to be picking up to the downside is a function of how one chose to view the data, i.e., the longer the summary, (e.g., 5m, 10m, etc), the more inaccurate the presentation. Therefore, one using a longer bar interval will see weakness where there is actually strength.
This strength was particularly clear at the close and shortly thereafter, when price rose all the way back to the top of the day’s range. This morning, price dropped back again to the bottom of yesterday afternoon’s range, but the selling was half-hearted, and price was easily propelled upward thereafter to yesterday’s high.
Midday Wrapup
1000 Loads of volume up and down between support and resistance, but trading a narrow range can be a challenge. One has to be very explicit about what he sees as a reversal signal. Or just say the hell with it and take the money at a predetermined target. The problem with the latter, of course, is that one makes a habit of cutting his profits short. Over the long haul, this is a failing strategy.
1005 A drop below support, but buyers are trying to stop it.
1015 And we’re back above support, but hesitating at the opening low.
1025 And to the midpoint of the range.
1045 Price pushed back nicely into the midrange. Traders are clearly seeking equilibrium.
1120 For those who are still awake, note how volume has subsided during this period, except for those occasional little nudges to the upside.
1200 Zzzzzz.
Intermission
I've been asked why I didn't take the long off support this morning, and the reason, though good for me, really has nothing to do with this blog, and I should have posted it. Who am I to make decisions for other people?
The reason is/was that I don't like trading these itty-bitty ranges. I don't like hanging around on a beautiful day to make just a handful of points. But not everybody feels that way. After all, there are lots of places where the weather is crap.
So here you are.
The principles and tactics are the same. You have price dropping to a support area (given the extent of yesterday's rise, I'd hesitate to establish a hard level as support). There is a potential selling climax at 1000 and a test at 1003. And all of that is fine so far. However, in order to gather up the will to take this trade, at least a few traders would want to have something to go by besides just a maybe-maybe not support level and volume that they might not be interpreting correctly. And the "test" is a higher low, so any divergence in the TICKQ would appear to be irrelevant.
.
.
However, all is not lost. If one were to drop down into an even smaller interval (bad news for those who can't handle even a 1m interval), he could see how price drops below 1808 on moderate volume, recovers, then tests on slightly less volume, though here with a divergence in the TICKQ. One could then enter at or around 1809 with a little more confidence in the long. And if it didn't work out, the stop could be extremely tight.
.
.
The morning in its entirety:
.
.
And the afternoon.
1350 And at last we make a new high, on decent volume. However, absent news of some sort, breakouts into a range extension are often aborted. This doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t take them, but he may want to rethink the stop for these situations. He may also want to keep the next resistance level at 1840 in mind. Where to enter? Consider that little pause along 1830 immediately after the BO.
1430 And we’re back at 1830.
1435 Price drops just below 1830, and while the demand line is broken, price breaches the top of the last swing high by only a couple of ticks. How nervous one might get would depend in part on whether he entered off support like he should have (sorry; see Intermission, above) or at the breakout above the day’s range.
1505 Tickling the next level of resistance here.
1530 Repeated tests of 1840 accompanied by higher lows and a decline in volume.
1545 And phffft!
.
.
.
Pre-mkt As I pointed out at the end of the day yesterday, volume appeared to be picking up to the downside, but it was actually the opposite. That it appeared to be picking up to the downside is a function of how one chose to view the data, i.e., the longer the summary, (e.g., 5m, 10m, etc), the more inaccurate the presentation. Therefore, one using a longer bar interval will see weakness where there is actually strength.
This strength was particularly clear at the close and shortly thereafter, when price rose all the way back to the top of the day’s range. This morning, price dropped back again to the bottom of yesterday afternoon’s range, but the selling was half-hearted, and price was easily propelled upward thereafter to yesterday’s high.
Midday Wrapup
1000 Loads of volume up and down between support and resistance, but trading a narrow range can be a challenge. One has to be very explicit about what he sees as a reversal signal. Or just say the hell with it and take the money at a predetermined target. The problem with the latter, of course, is that one makes a habit of cutting his profits short. Over the long haul, this is a failing strategy.
1005 A drop below support, but buyers are trying to stop it.
1015 And we’re back above support, but hesitating at the opening low.
1025 And to the midpoint of the range.
1045 Price pushed back nicely into the midrange. Traders are clearly seeking equilibrium.
1120 For those who are still awake, note how volume has subsided during this period, except for those occasional little nudges to the upside.
1200 Zzzzzz.
Intermission
I've been asked why I didn't take the long off support this morning, and the reason, though good for me, really has nothing to do with this blog, and I should have posted it. Who am I to make decisions for other people?
The reason is/was that I don't like trading these itty-bitty ranges. I don't like hanging around on a beautiful day to make just a handful of points. But not everybody feels that way. After all, there are lots of places where the weather is crap.
So here you are.
The principles and tactics are the same. You have price dropping to a support area (given the extent of yesterday's rise, I'd hesitate to establish a hard level as support). There is a potential selling climax at 1000 and a test at 1003. And all of that is fine so far. However, in order to gather up the will to take this trade, at least a few traders would want to have something to go by besides just a maybe-maybe not support level and volume that they might not be interpreting correctly. And the "test" is a higher low, so any divergence in the TICKQ would appear to be irrelevant.
.
.
However, all is not lost. If one were to drop down into an even smaller interval (bad news for those who can't handle even a 1m interval), he could see how price drops below 1808 on moderate volume, recovers, then tests on slightly less volume, though here with a divergence in the TICKQ. One could then enter at or around 1809 with a little more confidence in the long. And if it didn't work out, the stop could be extremely tight.
.
.
The morning in its entirety:
.
.
And the afternoon.
1350 And at last we make a new high, on decent volume. However, absent news of some sort, breakouts into a range extension are often aborted. This doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t take them, but he may want to rethink the stop for these situations. He may also want to keep the next resistance level at 1840 in mind. Where to enter? Consider that little pause along 1830 immediately after the BO.
1430 And we’re back at 1830.
1435 Price drops just below 1830, and while the demand line is broken, price breaches the top of the last swing high by only a couple of ticks. How nervous one might get would depend in part on whether he entered off support like he should have (sorry; see Intermission, above) or at the breakout above the day’s range.
1505 Tickling the next level of resistance here.
1530 Repeated tests of 1840 accompanied by higher lows and a decline in volume.
1545 And phffft!
.
.
Total Comments 1
Comments
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The 5 sec chart is a eye opener - and, for me, a whole new way of looking at price volume.
The comment at 15"30 "higher lows and a decline in volume " is very helpful. |
 
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