The purpose of this is to serve as a closet, or attic, or self-storage facility. A place for me to store what I don't want to lose, all in one place, partly for me, but largely for those who may be interested in what I think about market stuff and trading stuff.
I've reserved the right to moderate comments. Assuming that this works, the point of it is to keep the blog on task as much as possible. Substantive questions will be answered, if I can, but good wishes and so forth will not be posted, not because I don't appreciate them, but because all of that is a lot for newcomers to wade through after a while, so please don't be insulted if you don't see your comment posted.
The first post is a link to a preview of my book. This may be of no interest to you whatsoever, but I do encourage those who are interested to at least look over it before plunking down any money for something that may be of little or no use to them.
Good trading.
I've reserved the right to moderate comments. Assuming that this works, the point of it is to keep the blog on task as much as possible. Substantive questions will be answered, if I can, but good wishes and so forth will not be posted, not because I don't appreciate them, but because all of that is a lot for newcomers to wade through after a while, so please don't be insulted if you don't see your comment posted.
The first post is a link to a preview of my book. This may be of no interest to you whatsoever, but I do encourage those who are interested to at least look over it before plunking down any money for something that may be of little or no use to them.
Good trading.
For Mar 24 post
Posted 03-24-2008 at 05:34 PM by DbPhoenix
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Pre-mkt A little BSC/JPM news lifts the market into the midpoint of the volume range. So we wait for a test of either support or resistance.
0940 And here we are at resistance.
0945 Spending a lot of time up here.
0950 Absorption and distribution are much like the cup-with-handle and the triple top: it’s easy to see in hindsight, e.g., the day or week after, but a bit more difficult in real time. Fortunately, one isn’t required to make the call in real time. All he has to do is trade what’s in front of him.
0955 They seem to be waiting for the housing report.
1000 Price didn’t drop below the last swing low.
1005 Buyers are in control, and there’s a nice pause here after the breakout. Next resistance is at 1820. Time for a demand line.
1025 Price has consolidated again and made a new high, so time for another demand line, this one at a more acute angle.
1035 At some point, these lines will be broken, and the trader will have to have decided ahead of time what he’s going to look for in order to decide whether to exit or hold, e.g., a break of the line, a break of the last swing low, etc. There aren’t that many possibilities.
1045 Demand line broken, but last swing low is not breached. And if the importance of this is not obvious, price can just as easily make a new high and create the conditions for drawing a new line or adjusting the old one, and a trader just jumping in here with a short would be f**ked. Waves getting very shallow here.
1050 Second demand line broken, but last swing low not breached. The LSL Is also on the same level as the first demand line.
1100 And everything gets very quiet. Not quite at resistance, but the upper level of this zone has been in place for two months now, and a hesitation anywhere near this level is to be expected. On the other hand, we’ve moved 45 points, so anyone deciding to exit and take the rest of the day off could not be criticized for doing so. On the other hand, there are those who grabbed quick profits 30+ points ago….. And again, he who trades more than one contract, or who’s trading two or more lots of QQQQ, has more options available.
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1110 Extreme dryup in volume. No directional movement. This above that earlier consolidation at 1800. A lot of people would see this “lack” of activity, or volume, and shrug it off. But it all counts. It all adds up.
1145 A new high, but it runs into a stone wall. However, the TICKQ also makes a new high, so let’s not jump into anything.
1155 Volume dries up again, price holds.
1230 And we make a new high at resistance.
1245 And a higher high, so we can draw a new demand line.
1255 And the demand line is broken.
1300 Volume picking up on the downside.
1305 But no follow-through.
1320 Volume dries up again and more sideways movement. Again, one must decide in advance what he’s looking for and what he’s going to do if and when he sees it. Once a trade is in profit, the rest is just management. If one wants to exit early with only a few points, that’s his choice, but he ought to be honest with himself as to whether he’s making that choice out of fear or ignorance. Or both.
1330 A half-hearted test on low volume.
1350 And we test the bottom of this little range, again on low volume.
1400 A little test, but sellers overwhelm buyers (or sellers orchestrate the poke in the first place, but what difference does it make?).
1420 Price being boosted from 1818, but pulled back from 1826.
It’s funny that the wires are attributing today’s rise at least in part to the housing report, funny because even though sales were up, prices were way down. Duh. Fact is that the reports were only an excuse. The market rose because demand outweighed supply, and the reasons were many. I mention this because somebody who’s new or newish at this might think that the housing report is terribly important, and the next time it comes out, he’ll be ready to pounce. But since the report really has nothing to do with today’s rise, he will most likely find himself on the wrong side yet again, confused, and ultimately frustrated. It’s demand, supply, support, resistance, price, volume. Anything else is just filler for those who just have to know “why?”, even though the answer is completely irrelevant and often silly.
1505 Volume appears to pick up to the downside, but it’s actually the opposite.
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.
Pre-mkt A little BSC/JPM news lifts the market into the midpoint of the volume range. So we wait for a test of either support or resistance.
0940 And here we are at resistance.
0945 Spending a lot of time up here.
0950 Absorption and distribution are much like the cup-with-handle and the triple top: it’s easy to see in hindsight, e.g., the day or week after, but a bit more difficult in real time. Fortunately, one isn’t required to make the call in real time. All he has to do is trade what’s in front of him.
0955 They seem to be waiting for the housing report.
1000 Price didn’t drop below the last swing low.
1005 Buyers are in control, and there’s a nice pause here after the breakout. Next resistance is at 1820. Time for a demand line.
1025 Price has consolidated again and made a new high, so time for another demand line, this one at a more acute angle.
1035 At some point, these lines will be broken, and the trader will have to have decided ahead of time what he’s going to look for in order to decide whether to exit or hold, e.g., a break of the line, a break of the last swing low, etc. There aren’t that many possibilities.
1045 Demand line broken, but last swing low is not breached. And if the importance of this is not obvious, price can just as easily make a new high and create the conditions for drawing a new line or adjusting the old one, and a trader just jumping in here with a short would be f**ked. Waves getting very shallow here.
1050 Second demand line broken, but last swing low not breached. The LSL Is also on the same level as the first demand line.
1100 And everything gets very quiet. Not quite at resistance, but the upper level of this zone has been in place for two months now, and a hesitation anywhere near this level is to be expected. On the other hand, we’ve moved 45 points, so anyone deciding to exit and take the rest of the day off could not be criticized for doing so. On the other hand, there are those who grabbed quick profits 30+ points ago….. And again, he who trades more than one contract, or who’s trading two or more lots of QQQQ, has more options available.
.
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1110 Extreme dryup in volume. No directional movement. This above that earlier consolidation at 1800. A lot of people would see this “lack” of activity, or volume, and shrug it off. But it all counts. It all adds up.
1145 A new high, but it runs into a stone wall. However, the TICKQ also makes a new high, so let’s not jump into anything.
1155 Volume dries up again, price holds.
1230 And we make a new high at resistance.
1245 And a higher high, so we can draw a new demand line.
1255 And the demand line is broken.
1300 Volume picking up on the downside.
1305 But no follow-through.
1320 Volume dries up again and more sideways movement. Again, one must decide in advance what he’s looking for and what he’s going to do if and when he sees it. Once a trade is in profit, the rest is just management. If one wants to exit early with only a few points, that’s his choice, but he ought to be honest with himself as to whether he’s making that choice out of fear or ignorance. Or both.
1330 A half-hearted test on low volume.
1350 And we test the bottom of this little range, again on low volume.
1400 A little test, but sellers overwhelm buyers (or sellers orchestrate the poke in the first place, but what difference does it make?).
1420 Price being boosted from 1818, but pulled back from 1826.
It’s funny that the wires are attributing today’s rise at least in part to the housing report, funny because even though sales were up, prices were way down. Duh. Fact is that the reports were only an excuse. The market rose because demand outweighed supply, and the reasons were many. I mention this because somebody who’s new or newish at this might think that the housing report is terribly important, and the next time it comes out, he’ll be ready to pounce. But since the report really has nothing to do with today’s rise, he will most likely find himself on the wrong side yet again, confused, and ultimately frustrated. It’s demand, supply, support, resistance, price, volume. Anything else is just filler for those who just have to know “why?”, even though the answer is completely irrelevant and often silly.
1505 Volume appears to pick up to the downside, but it’s actually the opposite.
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Total Comments 6
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I have a question about the second chart.
Around 1245 prices reaches resistance. At 1255 price breaks the demandline, like you stated. Later, around 1325, price is at resistance again but the volume is lower then the first time. So we had a break of the demandline, and a failure to make a higher high. If one compares the exact highs, it's actually a lower high (marginally), so why not take a short here? We are at resistance, price has moved a great number of points, the demandline is broken AND we failed to make a HrH... sounds like a lot of confluence to me? |
 
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You could short if you like, but that would mean exiting the long, and since this has been a trend day, the odds are for a continuation. Since trend days hold at the last swing low, in this case 1819, that becomes the level to watch.
As it turns out, price does no more than consolidate at this level and closes near the high. But you never know. |
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Hypothetical intraday question:
If you had an budget of max. $ 2 for charting data a day. Lets say that price data alone would cost you $ 1 a day. Volume and Tick would also cost you $1 each. What would you buy, Tick or Volume? And why? |
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Since both are free, I wouldn't have to choose.
But if you're asking which is more important, I can't say they are of equal importance, but I'd be sailing in a leaky boat if I had to work without both. |
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Better wording:
"I can't say they are of equal importance" What could you miss most, Tick or Volume, and why? The reason I ask this is: Im new to intraday trading. Since I recently dropped allmost all my fancy indicators, I feel a strong need to be very economical about what I watch, how I watch it and why I whatch it. Intraday there is so mutch happening that I noticed I can get disconnected easily if I watch more then I can handle in my current stage of skill. Bon weekend |
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Updated 04-26-2008 at 03:27 PM by neutral |
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You're asking the wrong question. The question is not whether you're watching too much or watching the wrong things but what your strategy requires you to watch. If your strategy requires you to watch too much, you need to re-evaluate your strategy.
I suggest you open a blog, detail your strategy, and follow the guidelines offered in The Trading Journal and The Trading Log, posted here. Once you know exactly what you want, you'll have a clearer idea of how to go about getting it. |
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Recent Blog Entries by DbPhoenix
- Seven Habits of Ineffective Traders (05-13-2008)
- The Trading Log: Appendix (04-29-2008)
- The Trading Journal: Appendix (04-29-2008)
- The Trading Journal: Appendix (04-29-2008)
- Wyckoff the Great (04-26-2008)
