[iwshares]

At the moment my trading system allows for a 2:1 profit loss ratio e.g. 16 pip limit, 8 pip loss. So far using analysis to pick the direction of the trade I've had a 13:10 win:loss ratio. This morning was 11:9 e.g. almost 50/50.

This made me think:
Why not drop the charts and pick up a coin to decide whether to buy or sell? It has no memory of what side it landed on so would seem to be as a good an analyst as me at the moment (lets ignore the rare chance of it landing on the side)...

Any thoughts guys?

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by iwshares »

At the moment my trading system allows for a 2:1 profit loss ratio e.g. 16 pip limit, 8 pip loss. So far using analysis to pick the direction of the trade I've had a 13:10 win:loss ratio. This morning was 11:9 e.g. almost 50/50.

This made me think:
Why not drop the charts and pick up a coin to decide whether to buy or sell? It has no memory of what side it landed on so would seem to be as a good an analyst as me at the moment (lets ignore the rare chance of it landing on the side)...

Any thoughts guys?

If you want to engage in purely random activity, go to a casino. At least there you get to see some short tight skirts on a variety of women.

[SIUYA]

brokerage will kill you, plus assuming you only trade longs=heads or similar a large run of heads or tails in a row can still take you out, or at least set you back enough that it will take a long time to recover if ever. But I guess if the return is always 2 to one, then it makes sense.
Maths geeks are better at explaining it than I but I think you need to run the profits longer.

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by SIUYA »

brokerage will kill you, plus assuming you only trade longs=heads or similar a large run of heads or tails in a row can still take you out, or at least set you back enough that it will take a long time to recover if ever. But I guess if the return is always 2 to one, then it makes sense.
Maths geeks are better at explaining it than I but I think you need to run the profits longer.

I would recommend that you choose tails to go long instead of heads. I too like to live dangerously.

[iwshares]

Thanks guys, the first post was partially in jest but really happy for the constructive input. SIUYA I see what you mean about the 2:1 limit/stop. I've been thinking I need to reduce my stake anyway to have more pips both ways for the 1% of capital I risk each trade. I'll reduce my stake and try 3:1 so I can get it wrong 3 times for each trade I get right.

Hope you have a great Easter and good trading next week!

[peterjerome]

Originally Posted by iwshares »

Why not drop the charts and pick up a coin to decide whether to buy or sell? ...

this topic came up a few years back when i was on Woodies CCi site, so woodie put it to a test. go long / short on next bar open determined by coin flip. target = 10, stop =5. it was profitable. not rocket science...price is either going up or down, no?

peter

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by peterjerome »

this topic came up a few years back when i was on Woodies CCi site, so woodie put it to a test. go long / short on next bar open determined by coin flip. target = 10, stop =5. it was profitable. not rocket science...price is either going up or down, no?

peter

Peter,

I think you might improve results over a random flip of a coin if you look at the aroon oscilator before you consider the cci patterns. But, I would only do so if the chaiken monyflow index confirmed the darvas box break out. At that point I would make sure that price stayed within the donchian channels and watched for a fib retracement of a fisher transform signal.

MM

[peterjerome]

Originally Posted by MightyMouse »

Peter,

I think you might improve results over a random flip of a coin if you look at the aroon oscilator before you consider the cci patterns. But, I would only do so if the chaiken monyflow index confirmed the darvas box break out. At that point I would make sure that price stayed within the donchian channels and watched for a fib retracement of a fisher transform signal.

MM

MM,
true enough...taking a random Long position when market is already headed north, and converse for a Short positon will significantly improve the odds. however, the whole point of the coin flip (as i understand it) was could you be successful with a random entry when using a 2-1 reward / risk.
peter.