Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbig04 »
However, I don't care for the particular sanctimonious way in which he often addresses many others. I think his teaching would be more effective if he was a little less dismissive in the way he answers questions and speaks to us noobs. We realize it took you a long time to get to the place you are at DB and we respect that, but that doesn't mean it will take us that long-thanks in large part to people like you. So give us a break, cut us some slack and remember you are never to old to learn.
Also, IMHO ( and I do mean humble) a lot of the information you give, while great stuff, isn't immediately necessary for becoming a profitable trader. it would be nice if you prioritized it so noobs could focus on the most important stuff first.
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I don't think of trading price as a religion, but it does make sense to me.
Sanctimony aside, however, once it becomes clear that a trader -- beginner or otherwise -- and I are not on the same wavelength, I don't pursue it. There are many ways to make money in the market, and if someone chooses another path, there's no need for me to argue the point. It is not, after all, my money. Therefore, when it became clear last summer that you and I had very different views on trading, I didn't pursue it (see the Edge vs Mentality thread). Nor have I posted to your journal. There's no point. Only your own success or failure will convince you as to whether you've been right or wrong.
As for what's immediately necessary for becoming a profitable trader, you (as you say) are not yet a profitable trader. Perhaps if you'd followed the steps I suggested in the
Trading Journal, you would be. Or maybe not. As I said, there is more than one path to profitability. But if I'm reading your posts correctly, you have not yet established an edge, you have not yet defined your setup in a way that can be tested, you don't like to do backtests, and you don't like to keep detailed records. And this is only a part of the process I've suggested. It may not be the path to profitability for you, but it has been for many. To say that I haven't "prioritized" anything or put "the most important stuff first" is inaccurate.
Again, you may find that different steps are better for you, that the priorities are different, that something else may be "more important". The only way you have of knowing for sure is to do the work yourself and to examine the results you've achieved. You've been at this for around 18 months, and perhaps you are at the point where you can reexamine how close or how far away you are to achieving your goals and whether your views on trading and the markets have aided or impeded your progress. If you believe that you're on the right track and you're happy with your progress, then what I think is completely irrelevant. It's your money and your time.
I go into this here because this thread is about how long it takes to become a profitable trader. And as I said in my first post, it "depends in large part on how many detours the wannabe takes, how many dead-ends he winds up in, how susceptible he is to the con. If he's blessed with common sense, a finely-tuned bullshit detector, and a basic understanding of what an auction is, shouldn't take more than a couple of months." The flip side of this, of course, is that if the beginner takes many detours, is easily conned, has little or no common sense, has no idea how an auction market works, and has "psychological issues" playing Monopoly, much less trading the markets, then he will very likely spend years trying to cobble something together, at least until he runs out of money.
The trust that beginners place in what they read in books and online and hear in seminars and courses and on CDs and DVDs astonishes me. Without having the least idea whether Joe or Mary is a successful real-time trader or even can trade at all, the beginner will invest years of his time following these messiahs, and often invest thousands of his dollars as well. He can't or won't apply his own intelligence to the task and determine for himself whether what he's being fed is twaddle or not. He will, for example, believe with the fervency of the zealot that expectancy is critical and that entries don't matter, even though Van Tharp can't trade his way out of a paper bag.
Brownsfan regularly and often fans the flame of his obsession over my failure to provide "proof" that I not only trade but that I am successful at it. But the fact is that neither has he provided any proof that he trades and that he is successful at it. Do I bring this up again and again? No. Why? Because I couldn't care less whether he trades or not, much less whether or not he is profitable. He may be a complete and utter failure, or he may be wildly successful, but what is that to me? It doesn't affect my bottom line in the least.
The beginner cannot trust anyone, regardless of who that anyone is, how many posts he's got, how many thanks he's got, how many times he's been nominated for POTM, whether or not he's a moderator, how long he says he's been trading, what kind of or how much experience he claims he has, what he says his results are. That guru the beginner follows so devotedly could very well be a teen-aged girl posting messages with her parents' laptop. But the beginner doesn't have to trust anyone or anything but himself. What with replay, the beginner can test any idea he encounters and determine whether or not there's anything to it in no time at all. If he is intelligent and sensible, he may make that determination in even less time than that.
It is ironic that those who want the most the fastest with the least amount of work wind up with the least and spend the longest time getting it, usually with more work than if they'd had a proper start to begin with. There is simply no getting around the fact that the beginner must have an edge. There is no amount of work or dedication or counseling or expenditure that will turn a losing strategy into a profitable one. Nor can the beginner assume that if he instead chooses to buy something that is purportedly successful for somebody else that it will be successful for him, even if he has indisputable evidence that that somebody else is in fact successful with whatever system or indicator or strategy it may be.
So coming full circle, how long does it take to learn how to trade? Again, "it depends in large part on how many detours the wannabe takes, how many dead-ends he winds up in, how susceptible he is to the con.
If he's blessed with common sense, a finely-tuned bullshit detector, and a basic understanding of what an auction is, shouldn't take more than a couple of months." If he isn't but rather prefers to take what appears to be the easiest and quickest and surest route, it could take five years, or ten, or twenty. Or more.
05-24-2009, 09:09 PM
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