[Kiwi]

Lets get real. The CCI does provide the basis for working trading if its used properly.

First: what is required?

People trade with the trend or countertrend. Lets say that trading with the trend is easier (longer moves, and more forgiving because if you get your exit timing wrong the retracement frequently won't reach your stop before the move continues, although obviously a trend will finish or do a larger timescale retracement at some time).

When you trade with the trend you either hang on trailing stops or you exit at targets that (for most people and strategies) should be at least twice as big as your planned losses.

So, can Woodies' use of the CCI help with this?

Yes.

Its a trend following indicator (its just the current price minus a CCI length simple moving average divided by a normalizing factor (so that reaching 200 is similar to reaching the 2sd bollinger band ... similar)).

If you wait until its above zero for a while then the chance is you have an up trend. If you wait for a pullback to zero or a little below you have a pullback of sufficient magnitude to feed liquidity into continuation. So you buy. Then you have to exit. How? When it hits the 2sd bollinger (200cci) or when it pulls back from that perhaps?

etc etc


So basically Woodie has taken standard reasons for entering and exiting a trade and framed them around a 14sma and 6sma based indicator. They can work. Do most people succeed with them? No. Do most people succeed with any trading method? No. Is it the best method? No. Most would do far better understanding trend, support and resistance, and price action (and where it and volume action are relevant) than messing with the cci. But is it that wcci doesn't work? No.


So what has to change? Study price based methods and yourself. In simplicity and understanding lies the holy grail.

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by gg80108 »

I dont think there is a winning system out there.. There are some gifted traders who use tools to help them win.. I myself have never made back the money I have spent on systems, software, data feeds, charting packages. This is gambling you have the same chance against the house in this arena. If you question the seemly successful traders in any room they all have been in the trading business for a while,, the rest of us come and go. You got to ask yourself, can I beat the best players in the world?? well, can you punk!!

The beauty of this business is that people like this are a necessity for others to make money. This person is frustrated and mad they've lost money. They thought they were buying an ATM machine and got just the opposite.

But, let's say thank you to our friend here and hope they get back in the game soon!

[gg80108]

My point is that you have a better chance of surviving Russian roulette 5/6 = 83%. Survival rate is much smaller in trading, sorry thats just what the numbers say over 90% die,, you disagree??.. No room or group of people can beat the odds.. Now don't get me wrong, its a great hobby "everyone spends their extra money on something", so you can have a little fun, but if baby needs new shoes, one way is as good as another, or just aim it at your foot, but eventually the odds catch up with you.
Think the risk disclosure by the CFTC should be more strongly worked.
CLICK

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by gg80108 »

My point is that you have a better chance of surviving Russian roulette 5/6 = 83%. Survival rate is much smaller in trading, sorry thats just what the numbers say over 90% die,, you disagree??.. No room or group of people can beat the odds.. Now don't get me wrong, its a great hobby "everyone spends their extra money on something", so you can have a little fun, but if baby needs new shoes, one way is as good as another, or just aim it at your foot, but eventually the odds catch up with you.
Think the risk disclosure by the CFTC should be more strongly worked.
CLICK

This has nothing to do with beating the odds and everything to do with how you approach it.

The part in bold is exactly why 90% "traders" failed. If you treat something like a hobby, then you should expect that your hobby, like all other hobbies, will cost money. This is why it is called a hobby and not a business and blowing out your account doesn't mean you failed since being a hobby, losing money was expected from the beginning.

If you approach it like a business, take the time to prepare, create a business plan, allow yourself enough time to learn like you would do with any other career, then you have a much better chance to be successful.

The 90% failure rate is very misleading. If 100 people, without any experience at all, decide to be pilots and start flying solo immediately, I bet 90% of them crashed within 6 months. On the other hand, if that 100 people take the time to prepare, get familiar with all the controls, understand the dynamics, practise in the flight simulator and then start flying a real plane, I would bet that almost all of them will still be flying after 6 months.

Would you consider flying as impossible to learn and against the odds because 90% of untrained, inexperienced people cannot fly a plane?

Another reason succesful traders are consistently profitable is because they know they are accountable and don't blame the odds being against them as an excuse not to look at themselves to determine why he/she is not profitable. This always much easier to throw your hands up and blame the odds and statistics or anything else than it is to take responsibility and admit the only reason you are not profitable is because of you.

[brownsfan019]

Well, my point is that the market needs people that think like you. Guys like me need people like you that think this is easy and you can buy your way to financial freedom. I need people that think this is a hobby. I need people that are so narrow minded in their thinking to try to take a stab at this.

Once again, thanks for trying to beat this game that is not easy to beat. Thanks for giving it a shot and thanks for contributing to the traders that did in fact make money while you lost it. Remember, when you lost, another trader won. You are failing to remember that. For every time you lost, your money was simply transferred to another account. That's it. Somewhere, someone was more than happy to take your money.

It's understandable that you are mad and upset. I would be too. You spent thousands trying to beat this business and now all you have is some tax losses. And here you are looking for company. Misery loves company, right? You'll probably find more support over at the yahoo message boards or even elitetrader for that matter. Good luck finding it here.

[BlowFish]

I didn't get the impression he was "mad and upset" I am not sure how you did. The figures for success, failure and scraping by, are much the same as for any other business. In that regard there is nothing 'special' about trading.

I wonder if a steady stream of small retail traders are needed to provide us with counter parties? For example when a hedge fund runs its self from many billions into liquidation that provides lots of food for many us? Just a thought that occurred to me whilst typing this. Mind you I don't buy into this 'the big guys win and the small guys lose' idea. The commitment of traders report would suggest otherwise. This is the opposite side of the that particular coin and is also hyperbole.

I am surprised DB nominated it when he usually takes a hard line against hyperbole and rhetoric.

[HAKUNA]

IMO, CCI is just like any other indicator, RSI, Stochastic, MaCD etc and another tool for the trader, in the 20ema/pattern thread Bearbull has pointed out that it is upto the trader to make indicator work, it does not perform by itself

[gg80108]

Even the Browns can beat the odds and superbowl champs, once in a while,, but thats not how the smart money bets!